The hard man of Zion

Benjamin Netanyahu is a hard man. And he has to be. After all he runs a Jewish state in a Muslim region. He has very few friends and has to deal with an electorate that are as demanding as a hungry two year old. The wait of expectation on him is immense. He is the tip of the sword, the commander in chief and the fall guy should things go pear shaped. Yet, does he have to be such an asshole?

He was recently quoted as saying:

"The IDF and Shin Bet are responsible to the killing of over 1,000 terrorists, we thwarted Hamas' rocket fire, we destroyed the tunnels and terror towers (high-rise buildings). These are unprecedented blows for Hamas,"

These words were uttered during his weekly cabinet meeting at Hof Ashkelon on Sunday. Now, the audience obviously needs to be taken into account when analysing these words. Israelis want positives. They want to know that their country is safe, that their leaders won't take things lying down. These are fair points and aren't there thousands of us in the world (ehem, South Africa) that would love their leaders to grow a spine. Yet, could he have added something else

The IDF may well have killed 1,000 'terrorists' yet they also killed 1,100 civilians (at least). If Bibi was looking towards the future could he not have said something about these casualties? Been a little softer in his tone? Directed some points to the Palestinian people? Offered some sort of olive branch?

It certainly isn't Israel's fault that Hamas load their weapons and direct their foot soldiers to fight from civilian areas so, in a sense, Israel are right when they say that Hamas are responsible for the civilian casualties. But aren't Israel too? They fired the damn missiles after all.

Indeed, the Israeli argument falls flat and serves more to tarnish their international image when they blame Hamas without taking responsibility for their own actions. So we can understand Bibi but please, for the sake of the next generation, isn't it time to extend the hand of peace?

Ye man, what a mess

Yemen is a small country located at the foot of the Arabian Peninsula. This unassuming 'state' has a rich and storied history and is the fabled homeland of the Queen of Sheba. The country has been ruled over the centuries by various powers, including the Ottomans for a time.

Since 2011, the country has experienced a period of, what can best be described as, anarchy. In 2011, Arab Spring protests were some of the most severe in Yemen with hundreds killed in unrest aimed at unseating the long-serving president, Ali Saleh. The president was later forced to resign and an interim government was appointed. This led to the end of the violent unrest. Yet, despite the apparent success of the revolution, much of the old regime remains in place. The ruling party, the GNC, is part of the interim authority and is still led by…Ali Saleh. Odd, but true. President Hadi, Saleh's sidekick for many years, is current president and the revolutionary youth who led the 2011 protests may well ask the pertinent question, 'wtf?'.

So the protests have ended and the old corrupt guard are still hanging around. So what you may well ask. Well the 'what' is critical. The 2011 revolution opened the lid on the demons lurking beneath the surface of the rugged Yemen exterior. Islamist extremists, southern separatists and northern Shiite Houthi rebels took advantage of the regime's distraction to capture territory and force the state authority from their lands. Tribes have joined each one of these three general parts to further complicate what must surely be the most intricate balance of political forces in the world (except maybe for Nepal).

As of writing the Houthis and their supporters control one governorate in the north, Saada, and parts of two others, Amran and al-Jawf. Thousands of their supporters are also huddled in Sanaa in a number of protest camps. Their demands? Lower fuel costs and the fall of the government. The Houthi protests are probably linked to a national dialogue in 2013 and early 2014 (which they were apart of) that concluded that Yemeni territory should be consolidated into federal regions. The Houthis were upset by this as it divided their illegally obtained territory. The protests will end and the Houthis will probably get a few seats in the power circle but will anything really change for the common Yemeni? Probably not. War and poverty will likely haunt this 'nation' for some time to come.

Iraq and ISW

The Islamic State advance has stalled, badly. Let's be clear, IS are still in the pound seats. Its just that their lightning quick blitzkrieg assault it launched in June to overrun Mosul has, well, stopped. The battle lines are drawn and they are, in Iraq at least, meeting their match. Shiite militias and core Iraqi military forces in and around Baghdad and the Kurd militias in the north are putting up fierce resistance to the increasingly brazen IS. The story is different in Syria of course. IS have continued to plunder the north and north east and have expelled rival militias and regime forces from three governorates. Only the dturdy Kurds remain in their enclaves along the northern border with Turkey. This is probably were they will stay, for now, as IS look for bigger fish to fry. Clue, Aleppo. 

The Institute for the Study of War has been following Iraq and Syria developments very closely. Indeed, it seems they are dedicating all of their considerable analyst knowledge to tracking and reporting on the war. I think, and I think you will agree, that their site is top drawer. Here is a copy of their recent update map. These are produced daily.

The full site can be accessed here. http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/ An analysts wet dream. Thank ISW.

The endless wars

The Israel Gaza Strip conflict appears to have ended, for now. Following nearly 50 days of fighting (granted on and off fighting) Hamas emerged with a tiny bit more fishing area off its coast and some additional border lands. The price? Billions of dollars of infrastructure damage, 2,100 Palestinian dead, a handful of key, top commanders dead, its tunnel system devastated and its image as the protector of the Palestinians tarnished.

The impact on Israel was less severe. Indeed with 68 dead (including 64 soldiers) the human toll was significantly low given the devastation its fighters and tanks wrought on the Palestinian enclave. Indeed, the greatest impact appears to the hardening of already strong anti-Israeli views in the wider region and globe. Israel won't mind though.

These on and off wars are frustrating because they are so clearly unequal. Israel possess the geographic, man power and technical advantage over Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the plethora of other groups operating in the Gaza area. From advanced fighters, to heavy tanks and an intelligence structure easily among the top 5 in the world, the Palestinians face little to no chance against the Israelis. So why fight?

The Palestinian fighting groups were created to resist. If they do not, they cease to serve a purpose. They must, therefore, appear to be fighting the good fight otherwise the Palestinians will ask, why should we support you. The Palestinian fighting groups are also always positioning for influence and taking on Israel scores you some points. The Palestinians would like the world to believe that they are fighting as a single entity. They are not. They are divided.

So will there be another war? Yes. The cycles of peace and conflict are as consistent as the seasons. As long as Hamas et al remain in power with an unrevised constitution and general goal of rejecting Israel and demanding its destruction the ingredients for war will exist. Israel will also need to continue to respond to what is, in essence, a menace. 

The state of Libya

The state of Libya is facing an existential crisis. There are numerous armed groups and political factions vying for control and influence in the country. This competition has resulted in a situation which can best be described as a civil war, with both Tripoli and Benghazi, the country's two major cities, affected by regular rounds of fighting. The battle currently consists of two main coalitions of fighting groups. On the one side are the Islamists and fighters from the powerful city of Misratah. On the other you have the nationalists or secularists allied to two main groupings, the town of Zintan and retired Libyan Army General Haftar. These forces are further divided between groups which have, for all intents and purposes, been grouped together due to the current cause rather than any ideological affiliation.

The government is facing an uphill task in reigning in the fighting groups, even militia funded through the state coffers. The House of Representatives, elected earlier in the year, has moved its office to Tobruk from Tripoli due to the fighting. It has issued numerous statements and passed a law effectively banning militias. Unsurprisingly, the HoR has been largely ignored. 

The failure of the HoR, to date, is of critical importance. The current crisis, it was thought, was largely a result of the failure of the previous legislature, the GNC. In the run-up to the end of its mandate, protests and violent attacks characterised the Libyan security environment in scenes reminiscent of what we are witnessing today. However, the GNC's end and the rise of the HoR has, obviously, not resulted in any apparent improvement.

The Muammar al-Gaddafi regime was successful because it used its iron fist to clamp down on all power centres in the country. It subsumed many powerful tribes and personalities into the regime structure and suppressed (violently) its opponents. This formula worked well for Libya up until February 2011 when the first signs of unrest were reported in Benghazi. 

In 2011, the Arab Spring erupted and a civil war began. The artificial hold on the country was released and previous power centres and interests, specifically the Islamist bloc (read Muslim Brotherhood) and Misratah, came to the fore to fill the vacuum. It is, essentially, this friction between powerful sub-state entities and the weak central government that has defined the post-al-Gaddafi period and it is assessed that this narrative will be one that will characterise the Libyan landscape for some time to come. 

So what can the international community and the Libyan government do to end the crisis? They need to be realistic. Libya is fragmented. It needs, therefore, to provide some power to the sub-state entities. A federal system of governance is the most obvious type of political setup which could suit the country. Within federal regions, the state would surrender most economic power for security control. This would bring stability at least for the meanwhile. But to get to the point the Libyan government needs to provide the regions with a vision and hope that stability and prosperity can be achieved. The international community needs to sit up and take notice and provide as much military and political support to the HoR as it can. They have a small window now that must be taken.

Iraq - Distribution of forces

Syria - Distribution of forces

The Sunni Shia divide

Courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations

http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/sunni-shia-divide/p33176?cid=nlc-religion-religion_and_foreign_policy_bulletin-august_2014-link3-20140805&sp_mid=46660225&sp_rid=YW5kcmVjb2xsaW5nQHJlZDI0LmluZm8S1#!/

Christianity and Christians - What do they believe?

Christians have been getting wide coverage in the media recently following the militant rampage through northern Iraq and in Syria. Islamist extremists have conducted various atrocities against minority groups, including Christian communities. For many non-Christians, there are questions regarding the group. Who are they? What do they believe? What does it mean to be a Christian? 

There are many denominations but the majority of Christians adhere to the Gospel and these general principles.

Mankind has rebelled against God and adopted the ways of the world:

As for you, you were dead in your transgressions and sins, 2 in which you used to live when you followed the ways of this world and of the ruler of the kingdom of the air, the spirit who is now at work in those who are disobedient. 3 All of us also lived among them at one time, gratifying the cravings of our flesh[a] and following its desires and thoughts. Like the rest, we were by nature deserving of wrath. – Ephesians Chapter 2

Rescue, Resurrection and Response – Christians believe God sent His Son, Jesus, to take on our sins and through him receive salvation. Jesus lived, this is documented. Christians believe He is God as well. Tricky connection but think of them as connected through the Spirit. So how does one become a Christian? Its simple, just repent of your sins (say you're sorry) and ask Jesus to be your saviour. No other actions required. If you pray these words and believe them, welcome to the Christian family.

4 But because of his great love for us, God, who is rich in mercy, 5 made us alive with Christ even when we were dead in transgressions—it is by grace you have been saved. 6 And God raised us up with Christ and seated us with him in the heavenly realms in Christ Jesus, 7 in order that in the coming ages he might show the incomparable riches of his grace, expressed in his kindness to us in Christ Jesus. 8 For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith—and this is not from yourselves, it is the gift of God— 9 not by works, so that no one can boast. 10 For we are God's handiwork, created in Christ Jesus to do good works, which God prepared in advance for us to do. – Ephesians Chapter 2

Islamic State capture Kurd territory in northern Iraq

The Islamic State launched a major offensive against Peshmerga forces in northern Iraq on 2 and 3 August. The offensive led to the IS capture of Sinjar, Mosul Dam and a number of other towns north and north west of Mosul. The IS offensive is the first committed attempt to challenge the Kurds in the north since IS took Mosul in June and may signal a new escalation. In response the Peshmerga have deployed reenforcements and YPG forces from Syria have been deployed to assist KRG Peshmerga forces, the first time this has happened since the Mosul takeover. The Kurds are also promising that they will cleanse Mosul within 48 to 72 hours and retake towns recently lossed. If they can do this, it would be a major feat. While the Peshmerga are viewed as strong, their offensive capability is untested. IS and its supporting organisations are battle hardened and have access to Iraqi heavy armour. While they may be outmatched numerically, they have the technical and experience advantage, a key in any war. Time will tell how this will play out.