Syria's Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil has stated that the conflict in the country, which has already left 100,000 people dead, has reached a stalemate. He has added that the government is open to a ceasefire at any future negotiations, specifically Geneva II talks, which have been postponed on a number of occasions.
The announcement is significant and would certainly not have been made without Bashar al-Assad's say so. The Syrian regime has just emerged from a particularly tricky period where it attempted to dissuade the US from striking its key chemical weapons sites. It, and its primary ally, Russia, managed to avert the crisis by offering to allow international observers into the country to safeguard its chemical stores, the same stores it has just recently denied it used. Within this context the regime has taken an additional step by calling for a ceasefire. It is saying all the right things.
It is careful to note that what politicians say and what they do are completely different things entirely. Last year Obama said chemical weapons use was a 'red line'. This year he denied it and has refused to take responsibility for punishing the Syrians for the 21 August chemical attack in Damascus. Putin has repeatedly stated that foreign intervention is against international law and lambasted the US for its war mongering position while carefully side stepping Russia's own history of foreign intervention in Afghanistan and more recently, Georgia.
So what is the Syrian regime up to? What is certain is that the Assad regime wants to safeguard its own interests, namely its political control and Alawite minority. So far it has succeeded, sort of. While its commercial capital, Aleppo, is devastated so are Sunni majority areas across the centre of the country. Alawite communities along the north western coastline are relatively secure and Damascus, the capital, is in regime control. The Syrians are also making significant overtures to the Kurds in the north and an autonomy deal may well be on the table – if this were to proceed to fruition the rebels would be in a very tricky position. By pressing for peace now while the rebels look ragged the Syrians will gain significant international credit. They have most likely come to the conclusion that they have lost large parts of the country but can still emerge stronger than the rebels.
The announcement is significant and would certainly not have been made without Bashar al-Assad's say so. The Syrian regime has just emerged from a particularly tricky period where it attempted to dissuade the US from striking its key chemical weapons sites. It, and its primary ally, Russia, managed to avert the crisis by offering to allow international observers into the country to safeguard its chemical stores, the same stores it has just recently denied it used. Within this context the regime has taken an additional step by calling for a ceasefire. It is saying all the right things.
It is careful to note that what politicians say and what they do are completely different things entirely. Last year Obama said chemical weapons use was a 'red line'. This year he denied it and has refused to take responsibility for punishing the Syrians for the 21 August chemical attack in Damascus. Putin has repeatedly stated that foreign intervention is against international law and lambasted the US for its war mongering position while carefully side stepping Russia's own history of foreign intervention in Afghanistan and more recently, Georgia.
So what is the Syrian regime up to? What is certain is that the Assad regime wants to safeguard its own interests, namely its political control and Alawite minority. So far it has succeeded, sort of. While its commercial capital, Aleppo, is devastated so are Sunni majority areas across the centre of the country. Alawite communities along the north western coastline are relatively secure and Damascus, the capital, is in regime control. The Syrians are also making significant overtures to the Kurds in the north and an autonomy deal may well be on the table – if this were to proceed to fruition the rebels would be in a very tricky position. By pressing for peace now while the rebels look ragged the Syrians will gain significant international credit. They have most likely come to the conclusion that they have lost large parts of the country but can still emerge stronger than the rebels.
No comments:
Post a Comment