Strategic gains and over stretch

The Bashar al-Assad military forces are making major in-roads in the ongoing civil war against rebel brigades supported by Turkey, the Gulf States and the West. In early June, the regime and its Hezbollah allies recaptured Qusayr, a critical transit point between Damascus and the Med. The regime is now focused on the largest city in the country, Aleppo. The city of 3.5 million has been affected by severe fighting since mid-2012 when rebels pushed into the city and captured much of the centre and north of the city from regime forces. Crucially, the rebels did not fully rout the regime in Aleppo, which held on to key areas, notably, southern approaches, the Aleppo Central Prison and the Aleppo International Airport. In recent days the government has launched Operation Northern Storm in Aleppo governorate. The military is focusing on cutting rebel supply routes into Aleppo presently before an anticipated push into the city. In Damascus, the government has also succeeded in pushin rebels back in the east and south west of the city and security has returned to many periphery neighbourhoods. The gains in the conflict appear to indicate an imminent rebel collapse; however, this is not expected to happen. The government does not have sufficient troops to fully restore authority in the country. Large swathes of north eastern Syria, Idlib and Hama, and the southern Daraa governorate remain in rebel control and are likely to remain in their possession. The tactic that is likely being pursued by the regime is to secure key areas, held prior to 2012, to bolster any future negotiation position. This is, in essence, Assad's only option.