Introducing ran's new president, Hassan Rohani

Iran has a new president. Hassan Rohani, who was supported by former reformist presidents, Mohammad Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani, was elected with just over 50% of the vote on 14 June. Rohani, considered a moderate relative to his predecessor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is tasked with a number of major domestic and international political issues. While his power is limited in effecting real and sweeping change (Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is still the head of the executive) he is expected to soften the rhetoric and make advances with regard to the Iranian economy, which has been hard hit by sanctions relating to the country's nuclear development ambitions. Rohani is also expected to replace hard line pro-Ahmadinejad conservatives in the Iranian state and replace them with technocrats or moderates. As a cleric and former adviser to the supreme leader, Rohani is not expected to directly challenge the existing order, which is, on paper, headed by the clerics. He will, however, face some pressure from his reformist moderate allies and liberals to introduce some reforms. Pressure from the all-powerful (economic and military) Iranian Revolutionary guard Corps to maintain their hegemony will also be a tricky path to tread. 

General backgrounder
Rohani was born in 1948. During his formative years he studied at a religious school and later earned a degree in judicial law at the University of Tehran. In the 1990s, he studied further in Scotland earning his masters and doctorate. During the 1970s he was a fervent supporter of Ayatollah Khomeini and strongly opposed the regime of the time. Following the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Rohani was actively involved in reorganizing the Iranian military and was elected to Iran's parliament, the Consultative Assembly (Majilis), in 1980. He served in the Majilis until 2000 and was actively involved in the defence and foreign policy committees. He also served in various military leadership positions during the Iran-Iraq conflict (1980-1988). From 1989 to 2005 Rohani was the representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei on the Supreme National Security Council. He also served as national security adviser for presidents, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mohammad Khatami between 1989 to 1997 and 2000 to 2005 respectively. Between 2003 and 2005 he was the country's primary nuclear negotiator. 

Upcoming protests in Egypt

Egypt is gearing up for major protests in the next fortnight. On 21 June, Islamist party supporters will gather in Nasr City, Cairo, in support of the Islamist president, Mohammed Mursi. These protests precede planned 30 June opposition protests against the embattled president. The opposition has been preparing for the 30 June for weeks under the banner of the "Rebel" movement. Opposition parties from across the political spectrum have indicated their support for the planned protest, which will demand the resignation of Mursi and new presidential elections. 

Strategic gains and over stretch

The Bashar al-Assad military forces are making major in-roads in the ongoing civil war against rebel brigades supported by Turkey, the Gulf States and the West. In early June, the regime and its Hezbollah allies recaptured Qusayr, a critical transit point between Damascus and the Med. The regime is now focused on the largest city in the country, Aleppo. The city of 3.5 million has been affected by severe fighting since mid-2012 when rebels pushed into the city and captured much of the centre and north of the city from regime forces. Crucially, the rebels did not fully rout the regime in Aleppo, which held on to key areas, notably, southern approaches, the Aleppo Central Prison and the Aleppo International Airport. In recent days the government has launched Operation Northern Storm in Aleppo governorate. The military is focusing on cutting rebel supply routes into Aleppo presently before an anticipated push into the city. In Damascus, the government has also succeeded in pushin rebels back in the east and south west of the city and security has returned to many periphery neighbourhoods. The gains in the conflict appear to indicate an imminent rebel collapse; however, this is not expected to happen. The government does not have sufficient troops to fully restore authority in the country. Large swathes of north eastern Syria, Idlib and Hama, and the southern Daraa governorate remain in rebel control and are likely to remain in their possession. The tactic that is likely being pursued by the regime is to secure key areas, held prior to 2012, to bolster any future negotiation position. This is, in essence, Assad's only option.

Explosions in Damascus

Two explosive devices detonated in Syria's capital, Damascus, earlier today. Syrian state media has stated that 14 people were killed and 31 wounded in the blasts, which struck in the historic al-Marjeh Square. The square is also the location of a number of government buildings, including the Interior Ministry. The attack coincides with major Syrian regime gains in the civil war against the rebel bands. The regime and its ally, Hezbollah, have recently made major gains in the country having repulsed a rebel offensive in the capital and capturing Quseyr, a critical town located along the government's major supply route between the Mediterranean and Damascus. Such attacks are not unusual and urban terrorism has increasingly affected Syria's major cities since 2011. There is a possibility, however, that these attacks may increase in frequency as the rebels become increasingly desperate to reverse battlefield losses. The utility of any escalation is limited given the strength of the government; however, any increase in attacks will undermine popular confidence in the government's ability to defeat the rebellion, a confidence which has spiked considerably in response to the regime's recent battlefield successes.

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Hezbollah and Syria

Media buzz today is that Hezbollah, the Shiite Army of God, has deployed upwards of 4,000 militiamen to the conflict in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad's military. The deployment is focused on al-Qusayr, a key town located between Damascus and its critical resupply points in Tartus and Latakia. The decisive battle for the town is currently ongoing with the Syrian government dedicating a large amount of resources to the battle. Rebels are putting up a good fight but are expected to lose eventually as their main resupply points have been severed. Hezbollah has also deployed forces to Aleppo and Damascus to support Syrian government efforts against rebels. So why are Hezbollah involved in Syria?

There are three broad reasons. Firstly, Syria and Iran support Hezbollah financially and politically. Indeed, Hezbollah is the biggest supporter of Syria in Lebanon. Secondly, Hezbollah is a Shiite group and is closely linked to Alawites, which dominate the current Syrian regime. The rebellion in Syria is largely Sunni and is comprised of thousands of hardline Salafist Sunnis who are opposed ideologically to Shiism and seek its absolute eradication. Hezbollah cannot tolerate a situation where a Sunni power comes to prominence in Syria. If that were to happen the group's finance and very existence would likely end. Thirdly, the war in Syria is increasingly impacting on Lebanon and with its large militia force in Lebanon and established ties to the Syrian regime not deploying these forces would be illogical. Hezbollah is here to stay and may prove the decider in the war for Syria.