Libya's interim executive authority, the National Transitional Council (NTC), is expected to transfer power to the popularly elected General National Congress (GNC) on 8 August. The GNC will inherit a stabilizing state; however, will continue to be faced by a number of internal political and security challenges, particularly the ongoing violence between opposing ethnic and tribal groupings and a spike in apparent Islamist extremist attacks over the past four months.
Egyptian reaction to the 5 August Jihadist attack on its military forces in Rafah is expected to be strong. Egypt has requested permission from Israel to deploy additional forces to the Sinai to combat the growing Islamist militant threat. Israel is likely to agree to the measure.
Syria's security woes continue. Fighting is impacting on most of the country and the regime is in position to launch a major military assault on Aleppo. In the embattled northern city approximately 20,000 military units are poised to strike against 6-8,000 rebels. Ahead of the planned offensive the UN has withdrawn its workers from the city.
Iraq's political crisis continues as opponents of PM al-Maliki continue to place pressure on him. These political tensions coincide with a spike in al-Qaeda in Iraq attacks that have left hundreds dead this year.
Yemen's political stabilization remained a major success in February; however, the new Hadi-led regime continues to experience obstacles to creating a national dialogue and bringing security to the country. Bombings in urban centres and an al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula / Ansar al-Sharia resurgence in Abyan govenorate threatens to overturn recent security gains.
Bahrain continues to experience ongoing Shiite agitation and protests. Despite a downtick in reported protests low-level unrest and violence continues to affect outlying areas of the country.
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