The mess in the Levant

The conflict in Syria has been raging for about 18 months and there appears to be no end in sight. The UN security Council remains dogged by persistent Chinese and Russian reluctance to condemn the Assad regime and the opposition rebel army, the FSA, has not established control over any part of the country. Its inability to capture and hold territory is a result of its technological inferiority. However, all is not lost for the rebels. With sanctions continuing to bite the pressure on the Syrian regime remains immense and as with most dictatorships the pressure is applied on one point, the leader. The possibility of a palace coup are growing daily and the possibility of a schism within the ruling Alawite clique is a scenario analysts are increasingly beginning to consider. The growing threat of a internationalisation of the conflict is also a distinct possibility. Turkey and Syria have both bolstered its military presences along the shared border following the 22 June Syrian shooting down of a Turk jet. Since then the Turk Air Force has scrambled its fighters on a number of times as Syrian helicopters and planes have repeatedly approached the shared border. There are also continuing streams of supplies and fighters moving from Lebanon into Syria. The Syrian regime will be using all of its remaining assets in Lebanon to attempt to prevent further cross-border action. These assets include intelligence operatives (so we looking at possible high level assassinations), supporters (so protest activity) and non-state militia. The conflict is entering an increasingly uncertain phase; however, common wisdom is, is that the situation is likely to worsen further before improving.