The presidential election in Egypt in May will have massive consequences for the country and the region. Should an Islamist candidate win a period of increased tensions is likely between the civilian government and the military, which has, to date, played a major role in guiding the country through the political transition. Egypt's relations with Israel would also be affected and the Egyptian government is likely to take a much more involved stance on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict potentially bringing it into direct conflict with the Jewish state. Should a former regime personality win the poll Egypt should expect a period of protracted instability. Omar Suleiman, a leading candidate and the former vice president and intelligence chief, is viewed as a military ally and is widely distrusted by the Islamist-dominated parliament and the revolutionary/youth groups, groups which agitated for the end to military rule in 2011. Should he win, the relationship with Israel would improve as he is likely to maintain the current pleasant relations with the Jewish state. Amr Moussa appears to be a candidate around which many divergent groups could agree. While he is a former regime member, having served as the country's foreign minister, he is widely respected and was appointed Arab League secretary-general in 2001. His links to the former regime and his national prestige could act to stabilize the country; however, it remains to be seen whether he can generate sufficient support or following in a country where politics is dominated by Islamist groups.
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