Syria summed up in a cartoon

Monday Spin

Algeria continues to prepare for May parliamentary elections. With Islamist parties unbanned questions have been raised as to whether Algeria will follow its North African compatriots and vote for Islamic parties. Even if they do historical precedent suggests voter turnout will be low. Powers given to parliament are also limited and its ability to affect meaningful political change is unlikely. A bomb exploded in Lebanon earlier today near the Nocean restaurant in Tyre. The bomb was the most recent attack targeting a business premise that sells alcohol. The identity of the attackers is not known; however, suspicion has fallen on Islamist militants. Conflict continues in southern Yemen. In the past 24 hours government air strikes have killed at least 18 militants in Abyan governorate. The attacks form part of President Hadi’s renewed offensive in the south to retake Zinjibar, which was captured by Islamist militants in May 2011. Israel issued a terror warning for the South Sinai, Egypt, over the weekend. The warning was largely ignored by Israelis vacationing in the area. Israel regularly issues such warnings; however, there have been no major attacks since 2006. Nonetheless, a high threat still exists. The Bahrain Grand Prix concluded without major incident on Sunday. Attempts by the Shiite political opposition to disrupt the event failed due to the heavy security in place for the event. Further demonstrations are planned for Monday. Mecasr are watching with interest the recent spat between Egypt and Israel. Egypt cancelled a gas supply deal to Israel over the weekend in a move some commentators have called a threat to the 1979 peace treaty between the two states. The move is likely linked to repeated (at least 14) bombings of the pipeline by suspected Islamist militants over the past year and pressure from the Islamist-dominated government to cut ties with Israel.

Bloodshed in Syria as ceasefire fails

Despite a ceasefire on 12 April, the Syrian regime has continued its offensive against rebel positions in Idlib, Homs and Daraa. At least 77 people have been killed over the past two days in these areas in incident that clearly highlight the contempt with which the Syrian government view the international community – it also starkly underscores the UN’s inability to enforce change in the country due to the continued veto of Russia and China to stringent sanctions regimens. Rebels meanwhile appear to have halted offensive operations (whether they had these in the first place is questionable) and seem to be waiting for better days. Sunni extremists also continue to flood the country from Iraq and Jordan. The outlook for Syria remains largely negative. While UN observers were deployed to the country on 15 April these elements remain in Damascus, an area that has experienced very little conflict. It remains to be seen whether they will be allowed to move to Homs and Idlib in the north. Given recent precedent (Arab League monitoring mission in early 2012) the regime is unlikely to allow any outsiders into conflict prone areas until it has fully sanitised dissident hotspots.

Egypt: SPEC upholds decision to bar leading presidential candidates

Egypt's Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC)has officially upheld a decision to disqualify Khairat El-Shater, Omar Suleiman and Salafist preacher Hazem Abu-Ismail from the forthcoming May presidential elections. The decision will serve to increase political tensions further following a fortnight of increased competition between rival groupings. The move is a major boost for Amr Mousa and Islamist moderate, Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, who are now well placed to assume the leading position in the state. The supporters of the disqualified candidates are likely to escalate protests in the coming days, particularly in Cairo. Abu Ismail's supporters in particular are likely to remain at the SPEC headquarters in Heliopolis, Cairo, where they have been based for a number of days already. The youth activists meanwhile are expected to gather in central Cairo on Friday to press for greater political reforms. The current ruling SCAF military council are expected to bear the brunt of their criticism; however, the edge is likely to be taken off after the SCAF moved against Suleiman, a former Mubarak era spy chief, and Shater of the Muslim Brotherhood. Youth activists have been particularly critical of the candidature of these two men.

Twists and turns in Egypt

Egypt's Islamist-dominated People's Assembly approved a law on 12 April which effectively bans members of the former regime, specifically the National Democratic Party, from participating in the upcoming May presidential election. The law was proposed and ratified in under a week and highlights the concern Islamist have with the candidature of Omar Suleiman, one time Mubarak era intelligence chief and vice president, who on 8 April declared his intention to stand for president. While the People's Assembly has passed the bill for it to become law the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the current holders of executive power, still need to approve it. The SCAF are viewed as an ally of Suleiman; however, whether they will openly challenge Islamist parties over the issue is unlikely. If they were to do so, relations between the two would sour considerably and a return to instability in the interim would be likely. The SCAF will also be watching with interest the planned Islamist protests in Cairo on Friday. Should the protests have a major turnout the Islamist cause would be severely boosted. Should it attract small numbers the SCAF may be emboldened to openly challenge the Islamist's proposed law.

Egypt's constitution drafting assembly suspended by State Council

The State Council Administrative Court took the step of suspending the Constituent Assembly (CA) on 10 April. The assembly, which was dominated by Islamists, was tasked with formulating a new constitution for the country. The interim constitution will remain the primary legal document until the CA is reconstituted. It is not known when this body will reconvene. The CA had come under severe pressure from secularists, youth activists and leftists recently for being overly dominated by Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist figures with dissenting groups fearing the implementation of Sharia Law. The decision to suspend the CA is likely to be well received by the dissenters; however, Islamist reaction is likely to be strong and protests by these groups over the suspension are possible. Mass action is unlikely, however, as Islamists are keen to present the independence of the judiciary and other arms of government amid ongoing allegations that they are attempting to concentrate power. The Muslim Brotherhood recently nominated two men to run for president reneging on an earlier promise not to nominate anyone.

A brief look at the Egyptian presidential elections

The presidential election in Egypt in May will have massive consequences for the country and the region. Should an Islamist candidate win a period of increased tensions is likely between the civilian government and the military, which has, to date, played a major role in guiding the country through the political transition. Egypt's relations with Israel would also be affected and the Egyptian government is likely to take a much more involved stance on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict potentially bringing it into direct conflict with the Jewish state. Should a former regime personality win the poll Egypt should expect a period of protracted instability. Omar Suleiman, a leading candidate and the former vice president and intelligence chief, is viewed as a military ally and is widely distrusted by the Islamist-dominated parliament and the revolutionary/youth groups, groups which agitated for the end to military rule in 2011. Should he win, the relationship with Israel would improve as he is likely to maintain the current pleasant relations with the Jewish state. Amr Moussa appears to be a candidate around which many divergent groups could agree. While he is a former regime member, having served as the country's foreign minister, he is widely respected and was appointed Arab League secretary-general in 2001. His links to the former regime and his national prestige could act to stabilize the country; however, it remains to be seen whether he can generate sufficient support or following in a country where politics is dominated by Islamist groups.

Libya's domestic concerns

Libya faces a number of domestic challenges to its current fragile stability. These include:

• Ongoing rivalry between ethnic groupings in Zwara, Sabha and Tibu which has resulted in open conflict recently.
• The presence of militias in major cities, including Tripoli and Benghazi, which continue to spark protests.
• Separatist sentiment in the Cyrennaica region.
• Increasing domestic frustration over service delivery issues, including garbage collection, in its major cities.
• Inability of the government's security forces to enforce security over the entire country.
• Reported presence of large numbers of al-Qaeda / Islamist militants in the east, particularly in Derna.
• Porous borders which have allowed smuggling to flourish.

The current NTC-led government needs to address each of these issues and hold successful elections in mid-2012 in order to preserve the fragile stability and ensure the state's medium-term existence.