A brief on CNN's GPS on al-Qaeda

CNN's Fareek Zakaria held an interesting debate on his GPS programme on Sunday night. The focus of the debate was whether al-Qaeda remained a force capable of changing the game (like it did after 9/11) and whether the US had overreacted to the al-Qaeda threat and were continuing to overreact. The panel eventually agreed that, yes, the US was and continues to overreact, but that this was justified. Al-Qaeda it was argued has ceased to be an effective unit able to bring about change; however, Zakaria made an interesting point that al-Qaeda continued to achieve results by simply being a reason for the US to overreact.

 

Now the talk itself was useful, as it raised an interesting question as to whether or not al-Qaeda continues to pose a risk. What the program did not cover were the al-Qaeda affiliates that do pose a serious risk to US security. In Algeria and Yemen two significant al-Qaeda linked groups, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, maintain a signficant presence. AQAP for their part have attempted at least one bombing of a major US airline over Detroit in December 2009. It is vital that any discussion on al-Qaeda not get lost on the debate surrounding Islamist extremism which exists in multiple forms across the globe.

 

The panel also agreed that al-Qaeda maintained an ability to conduct sporadic attacks but couldn't effect change like it did in 9/11. I'd like to disagree. It takes only one attack at a right point in time to illicit a response. For example if tensions between Iran and US heighten further and an "Iranian backed Islamist group" coordinated an attack against the US, is it not plausible that the US would overreact again, even if it were justified? The threat from the al-Qaeda prime (let alone from its affiliates) will only be diminished once Islamist extremist thought is eradicated. As long as there is on Islamist extremist there will be a huge problem for government's worldwide. Ultimately it is up to each government to determine its own path, including the US. Whether or not they overreact is their own decision based on a calculation dependent on the needs of the people and the security requirements of the state.