Agent Jaws, Israel's silent underwater killer

In a bazaar twist in the shark attack saga (http://www.jpost.com/Headlines/Article.aspx?id=198399) local officials accused Mossad, Israel's spy agency, of complicity in attacks that have targeted divers off the Sinai Peninsula in recent days. The claims are ridiculous but do highlight a common thought running through the minds of many in the Middle East that see an evil Israeli hand in all negative incidents. Israel has been blamed for a host of incidents in recent years, including establishing a United Nations Special Tribunal for Lebanon - clearly a stretch. Its secret service has also been pinpointed in high level assassinations in the UAE, Iran and Syria – more likely. Whether the claims are based on fact or not they present Israel with a fantastic 'win' in the psychological war against its enemies, namely the Arab world. It has proven its military ability on countless occasions and its secret service is among the most efficient and ruthless in the region. Claims of shark attacks directed by Israeli GPS devices will leave the Israeli intelligence community in stitches. Don't expect them to refute the claims though.

Obama in the Middle East and Central Asia - Report card on 'perceptions'

Relations with Muslims - A+

Obama has said all the right things. Key note address in Cairo addressing the relationship was key to projecting an image to the region that he cared about Muslims. Backlash at home where perceptions that he was Muslim hurt him politically.

Iraq conflict - B-

Decision to withdraw was good for his home support; however, a deadlocked government and increasing brazeness of extremists a worry. Did he withdraw too soon?

Afghanistan - C

Increase use of drones to target Taleban. Doomed to fail. Generations of mujahadeen are waiting to replaced the depleted leadership ranks. Taleban growing in strength. Obama and Karzai forced to negotiate.

Pakistan - D

Increasing use of drone attacks in tribal areas. Counter-productive. See above.

Yemen - B

Measured approach to counter-terrorism in Yemen. Obama has clearly learnt that a measured approach is best. Increased aid to Yemen and intelligence supply. Obama needs to see results soon though otherwise will come under increasing pressure to do more ie boots on the ground or drone strikes.

Wikileaks, War Crimes and al-Qaeda

With the release of the classified documents on Iraq by Wikileaks it is now clear that Saddam Hussein had no connection to 9/11 and that the presence of al-Qaeda in Iraq had more to do with the new presence of US troops than the friendly atmosphere of the Saddam regime. This also fits logically. Why would Saddam Hussein harbour al-Qaeda extremists when during the 1990s he was under immense pressure from the UN over WMDs and other issues. Facing enormous difficulties domestically, supporting al-Qaeda would have been foolish. However, al-Qaeda, which in the early 2000s was still strong and itching for a fight, the chaos caused by the US invasion would have provided its fighters with a perfect opportunity to battle the infidel on home ground, which they duly did and continue to do. The reasons then for the Iraq war are...who knows. Queue the International Criminal Court please. To view the wikileaks documents on the Iraq war, check out their website http://wikileaks.org/

Iraqi PM Maliki tours Iran

Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki is currently visiting Tehran, Iran. The Western media have angled this visit as a clear sign that Iran's influence in Iraq is growing and that this is essentially a bad thing. And the Iranians are not helping with this point of view. President Ahmadinejad regularly denounces the US and threatens Israel with nuclear destruction. However, the objective viewer must see the visit for what it is. It is becoming increasingly likely that Maliki will be able to form a government with the backing of the al-Sadr bloc in parliament. If a government is imminent would it not be prudent to visit, arguably, the regions strongest military and political power? The fear mongering in the press is a problem and bolsters the US view of Iran as a destabilising force in the region.

Ramblings on Iraq, International Law, Realism etc

After eight and a half years the United States has finally withdrawn in part from the conflict in Iraq. Although presented as a success debate continues to swirl over the initial motivation for the invasion. "Was it a just war?" many will ask. I have decided to present the pros and cons of the invasion below. Many points are debatable of course. I am a realist humanist liberal so there are overlapping value systems and many pros could well be in the cons section and vice versa.

 

Pros for invasion

 

1. Removed and evil regime and saved thousands of lives.
2. Prevented said evil regime from attacking other states in the region, particularly Israel and Kuwait.
3. Introduced democracy to Iraq for the first time.
4. The conqueror continues to support the new regime in establishing a democratic order.
5. Other evil states were shown that if you mess with humanity you will be overthrown.

Cons of the invasion

 

1. A sovereign state was conquered without just reason (the W.M.Ds were never found)
2. Hundreds of thousands have perished. Millions maimed physically and psychologically.
3. Iran's counter-weight has been removed allowing it to support pro-Shiite interests in the region and threaten Israel with nuclear destruction.
4. There was no consideration of the underlying tensions in Iraq pre-invasion between Kurd, Sunni Arab and Sunni Shiite and what an invasion would do to the relationship between the two.
5. The conquerors own security was subsequently compromised. The invasion was not properly marketed to the world and it now looks like a power and oil grab.
6. The conquerors evacuation at a time of political infighting smacks of irresponsibility. You caused this mess, you should stay and clean it up.
7. Other evil states were shown that if you mess with humanity you will be overthrown but only if there is a reasonable possibility that you don't have WMDs, the ultimate game changer.

 

There may be more and some aren't exactly great points but I think you get the general idea. Deliberating on this type of issue would be difficult. An international criminal court would need to evaluate the conquerors initial reason to go to war, was it justified. I think we have a case for saying that the conqueror believed what they wanted to believe. If a realist where to look at this he would likely say that no it wasn't justified. The reason Bush senior didn't whack the Iraqis in 1990 was that they needed a strong counter-weight to Iran. So what of the odd scud hit Israel, two major political groupings balanced each other and Saudi Arabia, Sunni, was protected by Sunni dominated Iraq. The guy on the street would also probably argue that the conqueror only invaded for the oil in the country. We see the billion dollar contracts floating about, we see the movies showing collusion between the Bush family and the interests. Its an obvious human desire to want more. So that leaves us with a problem. The international courts would rule against, the realist would rule against and the man would rule against. So what was the conqueror thinking? Easy - They were thinking they could get away with. Final point, is it healthy to have a state like that? Has the United States become the ultimate dictator? It has all the wealth, all the power and if left in the hands of the irresponsible, we have problems. Who is next I wonder?

End of the freeze and...nothing.

So there we have it, the freeze ended and the Israelis continued their building. On the Israeli side no major issues. On the Palestinian side, significant concern that Abbas, the Fatah and PNA leader, has lost his spine. Abbas has publicly stated that there will be no return to violence and has deferred a decision on the talks until after he confers with the Arab League. This decision smacks of indecision and points to how weak the PNA has become under Abbas. Peace advocates will hail Abbas' statesmen like decision; however, when confronting the hawkish Israel, strength not indecision, is required. So now we wait, again. The Arab League meet again next week and until then the Israeli settlers will continue blissfully unaware that by continuing to build without significant Palestinian reprisals they have in effect strengthened Netanyahu's hand.

Talks teetering on collapse

At 22:00 GMT tonight a freeze on Israeli settlements will be lifted, meaning that Israeli settlers in the West Bank will be allowed to continue building homes. The ten month freeze has been credited as creating conditions within which the recent direct peace negotiations between the Palestinian National Authority and Israel, the first in two years, were allowed to restart in early September. Now after just a handful of meetings the issue of Israeli construction has once again emerged as a deal breaker. PNA president Abbas is currently in France of all places having snails with French President Sarkozy while the future of the talks rests with the Israeli PM, Netanyahu who is no doubt steeped in consultation with his advisers over what course to take. This is a major decision for him. If he extends the freeze he will be credited internationally as a peace maker and the talks have a chance of survival, unfortunately his ruling coalition is likely to strongly oppose such an extension and there is a possibility that they may pull their support leading to a collapse of the government, not exactly an enticing prospect for Netanyahu. The easier option will be to allow the settlement construction to continue, thus saving his own neck domestically. However, this course will lead international commentators to question Israel's commitment to peace and will further strain relations with Fatah and the PNA that had shown such promise in recent months. One other interested party will be Hamas, Fatah's main rival, who will be hoping Israel don't extend the freeze and the talks fail. Hamas will benefit greatly from this scenario as they will be able to portray it as another Israeli transgression and Fatah failure to rule the Palestinian people. At the moment there are no clear hints to the direction Netanyahu will go. The world waits for 22:01

The big freeze

With just four days left to the expiration of a freeze on Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank the future of the recent direct peace negotiations hangs in the balance. Fatah, one of the primary Palestinian groups, began a process of reengagement with Israel in early September after nearly two years. The recent talks have been touted by the US administration as a new beginning and hopes have been raised, again, of a possible break through on a future Palestinian state. Yet with a key issue, settlements, seemingly unresolved the talks seem set to fail. On the Israeli side the ruling coalition is split between those favouring a settlement freeze and those that are adamant that settlement construction is a right of the Jewish nation. Any agreement on halting settlement construction completely to meet the demands of the Palestinians will likely lead to a fall in the Israeli government. If the Palestinians agree to allow settlements to expand Fatah will lose all legitimacy and chaos will erupt across the West Bank. So what are the options available to the negotiators? A settlement freeze extension is currently the only viable option yet even this option simply delays the inevitable. The next few days and weeks will be very interesting indeed.

 

Once upon a time in Arabia...

Bahrain is up to its old tricks again. Just months before a crucial parliamentary election the ruling Sunni minority has decided to clampdown on terrorists and traitors. In a democracy this wouldn't be a bad thing unfortunately for Bahrain it's obvious that their true intentions are too derail the political opposition, which is supported largely by the Shiite majority. The terrorists and traitors who have been soundly rounded up and interrogated include human rights lawyers, political activists and your run of the mill family men with at least one unconfirmed report of a small Shiite parrot being arrested and tried on charges of treason. The pressure being exerted on the opposition has resulted, justifiably, in protest and probably less justifiably in violence. On Monday, a bomb exploded in Manama damaging a number of vehicles while violent unrest in small outlying villages has been regularly reported since 2007. October 23 will be another landmark occasion for the Bahraini political history. However, even after this event the core problems of the country will not disappear. Even though there is a parliament, it hasn't much power and the ruling elite are unlikely to allow Shiite representation in the highest echelons of government any time soon. Bahrain's greatest ally, the United States, a fake democracy if there ever was one, is also unlikely to put pressure on the government to reform for fear of losing their Persian Gulf ally to the evil and nuke loaded Iran. The outlook, like so many other outlooks in the region, looks bleak. Yet there is hope. Not all is lost. Who knows, maybe Sheikh Hamad will have a spark of inspiration and realise that Shiites aren't that much different from Sunnis and allow them some form of representation in the executive. If he does not, it is highly likely that the Shiites will become increasingly agitated and move, on that long horizontal line of ideology, towards extremism. Let's hope Hamad makes the right choice.

A brief on CNN's GPS on al-Qaeda

CNN's Fareek Zakaria held an interesting debate on his GPS programme on Sunday night. The focus of the debate was whether al-Qaeda remained a force capable of changing the game (like it did after 9/11) and whether the US had overreacted to the al-Qaeda threat and were continuing to overreact. The panel eventually agreed that, yes, the US was and continues to overreact, but that this was justified. Al-Qaeda it was argued has ceased to be an effective unit able to bring about change; however, Zakaria made an interesting point that al-Qaeda continued to achieve results by simply being a reason for the US to overreact.

 

Now the talk itself was useful, as it raised an interesting question as to whether or not al-Qaeda continues to pose a risk. What the program did not cover were the al-Qaeda affiliates that do pose a serious risk to US security. In Algeria and Yemen two significant al-Qaeda linked groups, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, maintain a signficant presence. AQAP for their part have attempted at least one bombing of a major US airline over Detroit in December 2009. It is vital that any discussion on al-Qaeda not get lost on the debate surrounding Islamist extremism which exists in multiple forms across the globe.

 

The panel also agreed that al-Qaeda maintained an ability to conduct sporadic attacks but couldn't effect change like it did in 9/11. I'd like to disagree. It takes only one attack at a right point in time to illicit a response. For example if tensions between Iran and US heighten further and an "Iranian backed Islamist group" coordinated an attack against the US, is it not plausible that the US would overreact again, even if it were justified? The threat from the al-Qaeda prime (let alone from its affiliates) will only be diminished once Islamist extremist thought is eradicated. As long as there is on Islamist extremist there will be a huge problem for government's worldwide. Ultimately it is up to each government to determine its own path, including the US. Whether or not they overreact is their own decision based on a calculation dependent on the needs of the people and the security requirements of the state.

Koran burning & religion

Does it matter that an American nutter is about to burn a whole bunch of Korans? What is the big deal? Not entirely sure; however, to hundreds of millions of Muslims the planned 9/11 Koran burning is highly significant. They are after all burning the word of God as transcribed by the Prophet Mohammed. Now Obama and Hillary have all thrown their two cents in and condemned the plan burning, the media have played it up and it's become standard day time talk show fodder. The event has been blown completely out of proportion. In fact the only person benefiting from this is the preacher in question. The Muslim world and particularly the Islamist extremist minority within it are waiting with bated breathe for the first match and some of them are readying themselves for revenge. One gets a sense that if this goes ahead that US Embassies across the world will not only be covered in eggs but some may even experience more serious implications. Anyone interested in this should stay glued to their news screens on Saturday, things are going to get tasty.

Abyan governorate & jihad

Yemen's Abyan governorate has been the centre of severe levels of Islamist extremist violence in the past month. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has claimed a series of attacks against the security forces which have left dozens of people dead. The campaign has been waged by approximately 300 jihadists (estimate) who are based in the rugged mountains surrounding the governorates main towns and cities. The group has the backing of a number of locals who are thought to be supplying the group with armaments and supplies. In response the government has deployed hundreds of fresh troops to the governorate to quell, what is seemingly becoming, a violent uprising. There efforts in Lowder, an AQAP stronghold, are admirable; however, its use of indiscriminate bombing against AQAP positions in civilian areas that is worrying, particularly from a counter-insurgency standpoint which mandates that in order to crush a guerrilla force it is imperative that the local community support the effort. The bombardments are likely to affect AQAP but will also benefit the group's recruitment drive.

Sensationalism in the media: A challenge for the travel security risk management sector

An article appeared in Reuters Alertnet earlier today that highlights the essential problem with trusting the world media to report on a consistent basis. The news story covered a suicide bombing that left one dead and six injured in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Although the incident is significant to those affected it did not reflect something new or newsworthy in relation to past levels of story on these types of security incidents in the media. There have been numerous and more signficant attacks than these in the recent past that have not received similar coverage (just do a quick search for Iraq factbox on the same alertnet site). We can but conclude that it is a slow news day and that stories on Blair being pelted by eggs had finally become boring to the press core. The challenge for the travel security risk management sector is therefore to explain these incidents within the larger context to its client base and not succumb to the sensationalism of the world media.

The trouble with Hamas' position

Hamas' 31 Aug and 1 Sept attacks against Israeli civilians underlines the groups strong opposition to US-backed peace talks in Washington between their main Palestinian rival, Fatah, and its arch enemy, Israel. Hamas, which ousted Fatah in 2007 from the Gaza Strip, essentially gifting Fatah the West Bank and an opportunity to pursue economic recovery and peace, remains deeply opposed to the Israeli state and continues to stake its legitimacy on this single point. They have been given the opportunity in the past to renounce violence against Israel; however, if they were to do so there would be two results 1. Hamas would reach a peace deal with Fatah and Israel 2. Hamas would lose all credibility as a resistance movement. This is unlikely to happen, so enter Hamas militants and aggressive tactics designed to undermine Fatah's own credibility.

Hamas though are, as an organisation, not stupid. They have realised that they can not exist in the international community without accepting Israel or acting like a real government. In the recent past they have been quietly approached by and have approached the European Union, perhaps to act as intermediaries between them and the international community. However, their integration into the global order will take time, time they do not have or can afford, particularly as their main rival seems intent on pursuing its own course...and at a fairly high pace. Bottom line - Expect more Hamas attacks.

Obama's Iraq conundrum

The recent declaration by Barak Obama that the US was ceasing military operations on 31 August and was on schedule for a full withdrawal by July 2011 came as a mild surprise to many. Although the announcement was expected the decision smacks of political and not military considerations. Iraq remains a mess and is on the verge of civil war. Sunni extremist attacks continue across much of the country on a daily basis and while the Iraqi security forces have been equipped and ‘trained’, they pose more of a risk to the country’s cash flow and civilian wallets than to the insurgents and militias. The country is in essence a dry stack of grass ready to explode. Added to the woe is Iran, a nuclear ambitious theocracy hell bent on pursuing nuclear technology and weapons (yes weapons, even though they proclaim they only want nuclear power for the cold huddled masses). If the US and EU continue to pressure Iran as expected Iran’s influence over Iraqi affairs will be clearly shown. The country’s government has already been implicated in weapons smuggling to its allies in Iraq and pursuing a policy of interference and establishing proxy militias to destabilise the country is a fairly simple matter. Yet what other options does this US currently have stymied as they are by an administration that is keen on retreat? Not many. To be fair Obama is in a tough position. The Iraqis don’t want the Americans, the Iranian don’t want them, the Americans don’t want to be there. But like any parent knows, sometimes you need to make unpopular decisions. Leadership is about taking bold steps even if it means sacrifice. A draw down of troops does not seem to be a logical military solution; however, like Vietnam in an era past there doesn’t seem to be any good options available.

AQIM ambush Algerian security force patrol

Algerian militants believed to be alligned to the AQIM attacked a paramilitary patrol in the southern reaches of Algeria's vast Saharan desert yesterday. The attack is unusual as AQIM militants have conducted the vast majority of their terrorist aggression in the mountainous north of the country where they are afforded a greater deal of cover. The south of the country has usually been AQIM's centre of smuggling and kidnapping operations which finance their military ventures further north. Military operations in these theatre against the well-armed and aerial capable Algerian army are not logical options. The reasons for the attack are therefore slightly unclear. Why would they attack a well-armed convoy in the middle of nowhere? There are two possible scenarios/reasons. The first is chance. The AQIM militants may well have stumbled upon the convoy during their everyday operations in the south and had no option but to engage the convoy. The second is that the AQIM were attempting to send a message to the Algerian government. In April, the Algerian government established a joint anti-terrorism unit in the southern town of Tamnarraset to curb the growing risk of AQIM militancy in the wider Saharan region. The well-publicised opening of the unit would have been received by the AQIM. This attack may well be a first indication that the group, starved of alternatives, may be sending a clear message, "we will not move". Whatever the reasons, the attack is not likely to be the last. AQIM have a now established presence in the central Sahara and are taking advantage of lucrative criminal enterprises in this theatre. They will not want to lose this.

Attacks in southern Yemen AQAP or ?

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) issued a statement last Friday threatening reprisal attacks against the Yemeni regime due to the government's recent operations against the group in the Marib governorate. True to form attacks against two military facilities in southern Yemen on 19 and 21 June left at least 11 people dead were reported in Aden and Zinjibar. The attacks against the intelligence service and a military command centre respectively were clear indications of the groups reach...or was it? The most recent fighting between AQAP and the Yemeni security forces has focused in Marib. Why then attack seemingly random targets in southern Yemen when there are hundreds of potential targets closer to home? There have been growing rumours of a Southern Movement, SM, (southern separatist group) militant wing operating in the south of the country and the most recent attacks could well have been orchestrated by the group, imaginatively coined, the Southern Resistance Brigades. Attacks against police checkpoints and military personnel in southern Yemen have increased recently and most have not been linked to AQAP. It could well be that the recent attacks and the scale of the operations have led the security forces to guess that it was AQAP. They have, after all, a long history of well planned and coordinated attacks in the country. However, the area of the attacks raises a large question mark. Could the SM be moving towards all out civil war? Mecasr has a sense that we may find out sooner rather than later.

Mecasr Factbox - Kidnappings in the Sahara 2008 - present

Kidnappings of foreigners, particularly Westerners continues to be a growing problem in the Sahara region. Below are some of the most recent reported cases.

On 22 April 2010, a French national and an Algerian national were kidnapped by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) militants near Inabangaret (near Arlit) in northern Niger. The driver was released shortly afterwards.

On 18 December 2009 an Italian couple were kidnapped by AQIM in south eastern Mauritania 18 km east of Kobonni on the road to Mali. AQIM demanded the release of jailed comrades in Mauritania. The couple were released in Mali in April 2010.

On 29 November 2009 three Spanish nationals were kidnapped by AQIM whilst travelling on the road from Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to the northern city of Nouadhibou. They were taken to Mali. A large ransom demand has been made.

On 28 November 2009, a group of armed men attacked six Saudi tourists and their two Malian guides near the Mali-Niger border in the Tillaberi region, in what is believed to have been a botched kidnapping attempt. Three of the Saudi nationals were killed and a fourth later died of his wounds. The remaining tourists were wounded and later recovered by the security forces; the two guides were released unharmed. The group was en route to the Gao region of Mali. There have been no claims of responsibility for the attack.

On 25 November 2009, a French national was kidnapped by gunmen in the north eastern town of Menaka, Goa region, Mali. The abduction was claimed by AQIM in early December 2009. Pierre Camatte was released on 23 February following a prisoner swap.

On 14 November 2009, unidentified gunmen attempted to kidnap US embassy personnel in Tahoua, Niger. The identity of the attackers remains unknown.

On 22 January 2009, four European nationals (two Swiss, a Briton and a German) were kidnapped by Tuareg rebels along the Niger-Mali border and then sold to AQIM militants. The group was abducted near Bani Bangou after returning to Niger from a festival of nomad culture in the Mali border town of Anderamboukaneby. Two of the tourists were reportedly released on 22 April 2009. A ransom was reportedly paid. The British hostage was executed on 31 May 2009. The second Swiss captive was released in July 2009. Again, a ransom was reportedly paid. In exchange for the Brit, AQIM had demanded the release of Abu Qatada, a Jordanian cleric in British custody.

On 14 December 2008, two Canadian diplomats were abducted by AQIM militants outside Niamey, Niger. The duo were released on 22 April 2009. A ransom was reportedly paid.

In October 2008 AQIM released two Austrian tourists in northern Mali who had been kidnapped in February 2008 in Tunisia.

Abductions in the Sahara

In another incident highlighting the growing threat of Islamist-linked abductions in the Saharan region, a French tourist and his Algerian driver were kidnapped in northern Niger on 21 April near the town of Tiguidan Tessoun. The abduction is the latest in a string of abductions in the region targeting foreign nationals. The incident came as Saharan states announced the establishment of an anti-terror HQ in southern Algeria aimed at combatting this particular and growing threat. It remains to be seen if states like Niger, whos armed forces exert negligible authority outside of primary urban centres, can assist in any meaningful way. Algeria, with its well-equipped armed forces, will have to take the burden for this new venture; however, whether neighbouring states will alow Algerian military units in their territories remains unknown. As such MECASR expects extremists to continue to take advantage of the insecurity in the region to abduct foreign, particular Western, nationals.

The Saharan miracle

In a region where coups and political instability are as common as flies on starving baby's faces, there are positive signs that the military junta running Niger will soon hand over power to a civilian government. In February 2010, members of the armed forces captured President Tandja and members of his cabinet and took control of the country. Now they say a consultative council including members of all sectors of the political and military spectrum is being established under long time opposition leader Amadou to review the controversial constitutional changes made by Tandja in 2009. The body is also being tasked with arranging fresh elections; however, in another positive move the military junta (led by Salou Djibo, pictured here) have stated that no members of the military or the consultative council may run in the next election. Its not all good, it never is. There are concerns over the status of the Tuareg rebels. A delegation of the rebels arrived in Niamey in early April but faced less than a warm welcome by the ruling junta. Long time rebel leader, Rhissa Ag Boula, and Kindo Zada, an ex-Niger army officer who deserted the military to join the Tuareg rebellion in 2007 were immediately arrested by the local security forces. The rebels, who signed peace agreements with the Tandja government in 2009, have not responded but we dont think this is necessarily a bad thing. The rebels are being shown that the junta will not negotiate with murderers (Ag Bougla has faced a murder rap since 2008), turncoats or other individuals showing 'anti-Nigerien' qualities. Who knows, the country may yet turn things around and with the current hard man and protector of the people, Salou Djibo, at the helm who would bet against them.

Maliki throws a tantrum

In what is likely to result in significant political tensions in the coming weeks - Nouri al-Maliki's, State of Law, party have emerged with two seats fewer than Iraqiya. The result means that Maliki is likely to loose his position as PM in the coming weeks as Iraqiya seek an alliance with other major parties to form a ruling coalition. Maliki has already decried the result alleging widespread fraud and demanding a manual recount. However, both the Iraq Election Commission and UN body assigned to oversee the election had deemed the poll free and fair. It will now be up to the Iraqi Supreme Court to give the results a final sign off before becoming official. In the mean time pressure from Maliki will continue to be borne down on the bodies assigned to oversee the poll. But will there be violence? Maliki's election platform was based on returning law and order to the country. If there was one party we had to choose to feel aggrieved it would be the State of Law - a coalition of parties that have openly based their political outlook on due process and rule of law. However, fringe groups will continue to attempt to undermine the political system. The Islamic State of Iraq, aka al-Qaeda in Iraq, have already stated that they will be moving towards targeting political parties. The group has shown a tremendous ability to fight on despite loosing large swathes of territory in the west and centre in recent years. Its highly complex multiple terrorist bombings in supposedly well-protected urban centres has surprised many, no least the 1 million strong Iraqi security forces. Interesting times ahead for Iraq.

Ethnic cleansing in central Nigeria

While MECASR rarely documents security related news from Nigeria a recent act of violence has caught our attention. On 7 March dozens of Muslim Hausa-Fulani herders brandishing simple weapons such as clubs, machetes and knives attacked predominantly Borom Christian villages outside of Jos in Plateau State. Some reports indicate that the attackers used fishing nets and animal traps to snare their vicitms, mainly women and children, before hacking them to death. The aftermath of the attack has shocked locals and the world. Over 500 bodies have so far been recovered from the early sunday morning blood-letting and the army has been placed on alert and deployed to the state. The violence follows similiar communal clashes in January that left approximately 300 people dead. The fact that such violence is allowed to continue is a serious endictment of the local security forces and Nigerian domestic intelligence services. The Nigerian government is well aware of the simmering tensions along the Muslim north and Christian south faultine which cuts Nigeria in half through Plateau state but has put few measures in place to counter the problem. Competition over local farmland, cattle theft and migration of northerners into central Nigeria has been the primary motivation for the violence and if these issues are not addressed quickly further communal violence is likely. MECASR continues to watch developments closely and the reaction of the current regime which is being led by stand-in president Goodluck Jonathan.   

Triple suicide attacks underscore security risks in Iraq ahead of poll

A complex terrorist attack in Baquba, Diyala governorate, left dozens of people dead earlier today. Suspected Sunni extremists detonated two car bombs in central and western Baquba near police stations and a busy intersection leaving a swathe of destruction. A third bomber, dressed in military uniform, ambushed the wounded at a nearby hospital, nearly tripling the casualty count. The attacks come four days before key parliamentary elections and underlines the ability of extremists to continue to carry out attacks despite widespread security measures already in force. Mecasr will be watching developments closely.

Key Iraqi security challenge ahead of March poll

Ahead of contentious Iraqi parliamentary polls on 7 March, the mood in Baghdad is muted. Sunni insurgents led by the Islamic State of Iraq (Al-Qaeda) have staged a number of high profile and bloody attacks in the city in recent months, vowing to overthrow the illegitimate regime of PM Maliki and stoke tensions between Shiite and Sunni communities. Attacks in Shiite holy areas (Karbala and Najaf) have also revealed the insurgents goal of wideing the rift between the two main Iraqi groups and returning the country to anarchy not seen since the height of the sectarian conflict in 2006. As 7 March draws closer the insurgents will become increasingly desperate to stage bolder and deadlier attacks, for a successful election will greatly reduce what little legitimacy they have left in the eyes of the Iraqi people. The key test for the Iraqi government therefore is security and free and fair polls (and preferably a poll which results in a fair distribution of power). Mecasr continue to watch with interest.

Key Iraqi security challenge ahead of March poll

Ahead of contentious Iraqi parliamentary polls on 7 March, the mood in Baghdad is muted. Sunni insurgents led by the Islamic State of Iraq (Al-Qaeda) have staged a number of high profile and bloody attacks in the city in recent months, vowing to overthrow the illegitimate regime of PM Maliki and stoke tensions between Shiite and Sunni communities. Attacks in Shiite holy areas (Karbala and Najaf) have also revealed the insurgents goal of wideing the rift between the two main Iraqi groups and returning the country to anarchy not seen since the height of the sectarian conflict in 2006. As 7 March draws closer the insurgents will become increasingly desperate to stage bolder and deadlier attacks, for a successful election will greatly reduce what little legitimacy they have left in the eyes of the Iraqi people. The key test for the Iraqi government therefore is security and free and fair polls (and preferably a poll which results in a fair distribution of power). Mecasr continue to watch with interest.

Saharan blues

The culture of lawlessness in the Sahara region continues to be a issue of concern, not only for local banana republics keen to show the world a modern investor friendly face, but also for developed nations who are facing an increasing number of demands from local kidnappers. In the past two months three Spanish, one French and two Italian nationals have been kidnapped in the region and at least one botched kidnapping in Niger has left four Saudi tourists dead. The abductions have been claimed by the local al-Qaeda outfit although it is likely that local bandits carried out the actual abductions and sold them on to AQ. Hefty ransom demands have been made and amid public posturing by European governments that no ransom payments are being considered, negotiations are believed to be underway for the release of the hostages.

 

The Sahara is increasingly being marketed by a saturated tourism industry as the next best thing, with desert festivals and old trading routes being offerred to adventure seekers. However, with this increase in tourists the temptation for locals, most of whom earn less than a dollar a day, to kidnap foreigners is too much to pass up. Bottom line, expect more kidnappings in the coming months. By the way if you were planning a trip to the Sahara, perhaps reconsider and spend your money locally, heaven knows with all the non-ransom payments being made, European governments need the extra tax revenue.