Lull in AQIM activity in Algeria

A month before Ramadaan and Algeria is experiencing a lull in reported extremist activity that points to one of two possibilities. Either that the Islamists have been defeated and are on the run or, and what is more likely, that the Islamists are readying for a renewed campaign against the Bouteflika regime.

The last major insurgent attack occurred in mid-June 2009 in Biskra when an army patrol was ambushed leaving five soldiers dead. The attack came on the heels of a number of high-profile ambushes in the north of the country that signalled then a potential escalation in insurgent acitivty. The silence of local jihadists since has been worrying particularly in light of intelligence reports that warned that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) may be readying to target Chinese nationals in the country over their states recent handling of the Uighur unrest in north western China.

It is widely known that AQIMs capacity to conduct regular and high-profile attacks in the country has diminished since the 1990s; however, the recent lull is suspect. The upcoming Ramadan commemorations (20 August to 20 September) may be a strong indicator of where the insurgency is heading. During this period, it is argued, martyrdom operations are more likely due to the significance of the period to Muslims. As with most quiet conflicts, watch this space.