West African drug trade

In 2006 and 2007 Western European security officials noticed an increase in the number of cocaine seizures emmanating from Africa, particularly West Africa. The trend was linked to the increasing pressure being placed on Colombian, Peruvian and Bolivian drug cartels along their traditional Mexico-US smuggling routes by a Mexican government offensive against drug gangs and a parallel drop in demand for cocaine in the US market.

The big loser in all of this has been Africa. In post-conflict countries like Guinea Bissau, Senegal, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone the local security officials ability to deal with technologically superior and better financed South American drug cartels has been limited. In Guinea Bissau, for example, rampant corruption within the military (which domiantes all aspects of the GB polity) has been particularly problematic. The assassination of Interior Minister and presidential candidate Baciro Dabo in June 2009 (who publicly denounced the military in 2007 for its involvement in the trade), ex-President Viera and Army chief of Staff General Waie in March 2009 and death threats against leading human rights activist Luis Vas Martins (another critic of the military) prove that the reach and influence of the cartels runs deep. Guinea Bissau also faces an internal policing problem. For example:

• Its narcotics division has only 60 members and one vehicle.
• Its navy also only has one boat to cover approximately 100 islands and islets, most of which have the capacity to hold small smuggling seaports and airports.
• The incarceration rate in the country is 6 per capita....the regional average is 38. This means that there either isnt crime or the judiciary isn't working.
• There are no prisons, only police holding cells.
• A recent Security Sector Reform initiative led by a Spanish general, Juan Esteban Verastegui, and the EU has proven unpopular with the military. The plan aims to reduce the number of units in the armed forces. As a side note the country is the most militarised per capita in the region and government spend on the military accounts for 30% of GDP.

The cartels are well aware of the weakness of West African states and have done well to infiltrate local crime networks and corrupt local police and military officials. For countries like GB the situation seems hopeless and the chronic instability the country has faced since independence is likely to continue and deepen. Neighbouring Senegal and Guinea are also likely to suffer if GB falls to the influence of the cartels who will look to destabilise regional countries to increase their market share. Cartels generally seek out areas where the economic risks of doing business are small (ie weak police force) and judicial oversight non-existent (punishment for crime is light etc). The UN, EU and US need to work together to combat the threat as local states do not have the capacity to deal with the powerful cartels alone.

To read more about the situation in West Africa, please click here.

Mali declares war

The Malian armed forces are being placed on a war footing to battle the increasing threat of Islamist extremism in the north of the country. The presence of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in the region has finally being put forward as a national priority issue and will be given more resources following a successful peace settlement with local Tuareg seperatist rebel groups in early 2009. AQIM have long used the porous Algeria/Mali border to train, smuggle and recruit; however, President Toures 7 July announcement that the country had declared war on the Islamists has come as a relief to many counter-terrorism officials and analysts who have identified the Sahel as a breeding ground of extremism. However, the test for regional bodies is yet to come. Islamists have shown and unnnerving tenacity in the past two decades and have survived numerous military offensives. Regional states will need to implement a strategic and unilateral offensive policy combined with a policy that meets the root causes of extremism, namely poverty and unemployment. If these factors are addressed extremism is unlikely to see another decade.

Lull in AQIM activity in Algeria

A month before Ramadaan and Algeria is experiencing a lull in reported extremist activity that points to one of two possibilities. Either that the Islamists have been defeated and are on the run or, and what is more likely, that the Islamists are readying for a renewed campaign against the Bouteflika regime.

The last major insurgent attack occurred in mid-June 2009 in Biskra when an army patrol was ambushed leaving five soldiers dead. The attack came on the heels of a number of high-profile ambushes in the north of the country that signalled then a potential escalation in insurgent acitivty. The silence of local jihadists since has been worrying particularly in light of intelligence reports that warned that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) may be readying to target Chinese nationals in the country over their states recent handling of the Uighur unrest in north western China.

It is widely known that AQIMs capacity to conduct regular and high-profile attacks in the country has diminished since the 1990s; however, the recent lull is suspect. The upcoming Ramadan commemorations (20 August to 20 September) may be a strong indicator of where the insurgency is heading. During this period, it is argued, martyrdom operations are more likely due to the significance of the period to Muslims. As with most quiet conflicts, watch this space.