Thursday, October 18, 2007

The Bakiyev show: Soviet style politicking at its best


Kyrgyzstan president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev called for a referendum for 21 October. The referendum was announced in September and comes at a time of growing criticism of the Bakiyev regime. Bakiyev's presidency has faced rising crime rates, poverty, continued allegations of corruption, battles for control of lucrative businesses , political assassinations and infighting and allegations of a cover up of murders in Aksy in 2002. Popular protests to his rule have occurred frequently most notably in April and November 2006 and the hopes of the Tulip Revolution, which brought Bakiyev to power, have been dashed. Bakiyev has, therefore, chosen to ask the people to decide on constitutional amendments and reforms to the electoral law that will make political parties directly elected to a newly expanded parliament and give him greater power over the legislature. In the past, under Akiyev, snap referendums were held to give the president greater power. It is clear that the current referendum is continuing this tradition and the great hopes and ideals of the Tulip Revolution have been dashed. It is also clear that Bakiyev has not given the people enough time to realise exactly what it is that he is doing.

In October Bakiyev was elected leader of the Ak Jol Eldik Partiyasi. Although he resigned shortly after his election, it is hoped that this party will emerge as the new majority party. Kyrgyzstan has never had a majority party, unlike most if its neighbours and it is Bakiyev's hope to have a party that will legitimise his presidency and rubber stamp his decision. It is a clever political gamble. Most of the protests in the country have focused on the leaders. By moving towards parties blame is not so easily assigned. The government also gains international legitimacy and is seen to be democratic. Inspection of the proposed Kyrgyz constitution also reveals that power will continue to rest with the president and power will continue to be centered in the president's office. Under the new constitution the president elects 50% of the electoral commission, the cabinet and ministers. In fact the president can control everything and does control everything. The referendum it would seem is another smoke screen designed to deflect attention away from Bakiyev's obvious policy failures and to diminsh the power of parliament, which has been severely critical of his rule since 2005. If voters accept the new constitution, snap elections are due to be held before the end of the year for a new parliament. If they do not accept the referendum expect Bakiyev to conjur up another magic show to stay in power. With Bakiyevs manipulations and growing discontent echoes of the 2005 Tulip Revolution are already starting to be heard.

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