Algeria's Islamist threat

(Pictured here: An April 2007 AQIM suicide attack in Algiers left over 30 people dead)

Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has made a number of statements recently regarding the attempted assassination of Mustapha Kertali, reformed Islamic Salvation Army leader, and the structure of its organisation. In early August ex-Islamist Kartali was targeted by a rogue AQIM member in Boumerdes. The attack has been shown as an example of disunity within the AQIM ranks and in light of the recent surrender of AQIM southern leader Musab Abudaoud this argument has gained weight. However, the assumption is a weak one. The algerian government have been battling Islamists for 17 years. Thousands of lives have been lost. Recent high profile attakcs in Algiers also undermine the argument that AQIM is diminishing in strength. In fact the opposite is likely true. with returning mujahadeen from the Afghan and Iraqi theatres new skills and tactics are being used by the group. Recent announcements also suggest that AQIM will restructure to become a "true military force" capable of challenging the Algerian army. So watch this space. The Algerian conflict is likely to increase in intensity, not decrease as media outlets and Algerian government officials seem to suggest.