Through The Fog - by David Kenner (Beirut Beltway)

Wars are funny things. On the face of it, this one started for a seemingly apolitical reason -- a bank was robbed, and the army tried to arrest the criminals. It could have been the plot of a particularly spectacular episode of Law and Order. When the serious fighting broke out, the question of how the battle will affect the basic political terrain of Lebanon were irrelevant. Over thirty soldiers have been killed; the terrorists have to die. But how will Lebanon look different, after the smoke clears?

The most intriguing possibility is a crack-up of the pro-Syrian coalition. While Nasrallah is warning that an incursion by the Lebanese Army into Naher el-Bared constitutes "a red line," the FPM supports "any action the army undertakes." (Hat Tip: Beirut Spring) When the matter is purely hypothetical, it is unlikely to break up the March 8th coalition -- all of whose parties are perfectly well aware of the cost of failure. But in the event of a sustained army invasion of the camp, the split could widen.

Meanwhile, I am sympathetic to a strategic argument against invading Naher el-Bared: a guerilla battle in narrow streets, with the distinct possibility of radicalizing the Palestinians present, should be avoided if at all possible. The Lebanese Army also does not, presumably, want to set a precedent of assuming responsibility for patrolling the camps. But I am confused by Hizbullah's moral qualms about the Lebanese Army entering Naher al-Bared. The Shi'a militia opposes the Lebanese Army doing whatever it can to wipe out a group who considers them infidels because -- because -- why? Maybe, because they are temporarily fighting for the same side. Paging Seymour Hersh...

I also cannot imagine that the Aounists really believe that Al Qaeda is setting bombs in Christian areas. It takes a special kind of person to believe that Al Qaeda has lost interest in Iraq, in favor of scaring the Maronites and destroying Lebanon's tourist season. It requires ignorance of the international political situation, any knowledge whatsoever of the international tribunal's imminent creation, and a total lack of understanding of who benefits from chaos in Lebanon. But, in some ways, it no longer matters what Aoun thinks. He has made his bed with Hassan Nasrallah and Syria, and now he needs to sleep there.

And then, of course, there are the Palestinians. There are many questions about how Lebanon will look different after the latest battle; there is one certainty. Naher el-Bared will be half-destroyed and there will be many Palestinian civilians among the dead. The abject poverty that the Palestinians live in will become more abject, the already-high potential for radicalization among the Palestinians will become higher. The Arab governments, which claim to fight on behalf of the Palestinian cause, should be disgraced by their refusal to integrate Palestinians within their own countries. Some things never change.
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