Obama in the Middle East and Central Asia - Report card on 'perceptions'

Relations with Muslims - A+

Obama has said all the right things. Key note address in Cairo addressing the relationship was key to projecting an image to the region that he cared about Muslims. Backlash at home where perceptions that he was Muslim hurt him politically.

Iraq conflict - B-

Decision to withdraw was good for his home support; however, a deadlocked government and increasing brazeness of extremists a worry. Did he withdraw too soon?

Afghanistan - C

Increase use of drones to target Taleban. Doomed to fail. Generations of mujahadeen are waiting to replaced the depleted leadership ranks. Taleban growing in strength. Obama and Karzai forced to negotiate.

Pakistan - D

Increasing use of drone attacks in tribal areas. Counter-productive. See above.

Yemen - B

Measured approach to counter-terrorism in Yemen. Obama has clearly learnt that a measured approach is best. Increased aid to Yemen and intelligence supply. Obama needs to see results soon though otherwise will come under increasing pressure to do more ie boots on the ground or drone strikes.

Wikileaks, War Crimes and al-Qaeda

With the release of the classified documents on Iraq by Wikileaks it is now clear that Saddam Hussein had no connection to 9/11 and that the presence of al-Qaeda in Iraq had more to do with the new presence of US troops than the friendly atmosphere of the Saddam regime. This also fits logically. Why would Saddam Hussein harbour al-Qaeda extremists when during the 1990s he was under immense pressure from the UN over WMDs and other issues. Facing enormous difficulties domestically, supporting al-Qaeda would have been foolish. However, al-Qaeda, which in the early 2000s was still strong and itching for a fight, the chaos caused by the US invasion would have provided its fighters with a perfect opportunity to battle the infidel on home ground, which they duly did and continue to do. The reasons then for the Iraq war are...who knows. Queue the International Criminal Court please. To view the wikileaks documents on the Iraq war, check out their website http://wikileaks.org/

Iraqi PM Maliki tours Iran

Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki is currently visiting Tehran, Iran. The Western media have angled this visit as a clear sign that Iran's influence in Iraq is growing and that this is essentially a bad thing. And the Iranians are not helping with this point of view. President Ahmadinejad regularly denounces the US and threatens Israel with nuclear destruction. However, the objective viewer must see the visit for what it is. It is becoming increasingly likely that Maliki will be able to form a government with the backing of the al-Sadr bloc in parliament. If a government is imminent would it not be prudent to visit, arguably, the regions strongest military and political power? The fear mongering in the press is a problem and bolsters the US view of Iran as a destabilising force in the region.

Ramblings on Iraq, International Law, Realism etc

After eight and a half years the United States has finally withdrawn in part from the conflict in Iraq. Although presented as a success debate continues to swirl over the initial motivation for the invasion. "Was it a just war?" many will ask. I have decided to present the pros and cons of the invasion below. Many points are debatable of course. I am a realist humanist liberal so there are overlapping value systems and many pros could well be in the cons section and vice versa.

 

Pros for invasion

 

1. Removed and evil regime and saved thousands of lives.
2. Prevented said evil regime from attacking other states in the region, particularly Israel and Kuwait.
3. Introduced democracy to Iraq for the first time.
4. The conqueror continues to support the new regime in establishing a democratic order.
5. Other evil states were shown that if you mess with humanity you will be overthrown.

Cons of the invasion

 

1. A sovereign state was conquered without just reason (the W.M.Ds were never found)
2. Hundreds of thousands have perished. Millions maimed physically and psychologically.
3. Iran's counter-weight has been removed allowing it to support pro-Shiite interests in the region and threaten Israel with nuclear destruction.
4. There was no consideration of the underlying tensions in Iraq pre-invasion between Kurd, Sunni Arab and Sunni Shiite and what an invasion would do to the relationship between the two.
5. The conquerors own security was subsequently compromised. The invasion was not properly marketed to the world and it now looks like a power and oil grab.
6. The conquerors evacuation at a time of political infighting smacks of irresponsibility. You caused this mess, you should stay and clean it up.
7. Other evil states were shown that if you mess with humanity you will be overthrown but only if there is a reasonable possibility that you don't have WMDs, the ultimate game changer.

 

There may be more and some aren't exactly great points but I think you get the general idea. Deliberating on this type of issue would be difficult. An international criminal court would need to evaluate the conquerors initial reason to go to war, was it justified. I think we have a case for saying that the conqueror believed what they wanted to believe. If a realist where to look at this he would likely say that no it wasn't justified. The reason Bush senior didn't whack the Iraqis in 1990 was that they needed a strong counter-weight to Iran. So what of the odd scud hit Israel, two major political groupings balanced each other and Saudi Arabia, Sunni, was protected by Sunni dominated Iraq. The guy on the street would also probably argue that the conqueror only invaded for the oil in the country. We see the billion dollar contracts floating about, we see the movies showing collusion between the Bush family and the interests. Its an obvious human desire to want more. So that leaves us with a problem. The international courts would rule against, the realist would rule against and the man would rule against. So what was the conqueror thinking? Easy - They were thinking they could get away with. Final point, is it healthy to have a state like that? Has the United States become the ultimate dictator? It has all the wealth, all the power and if left in the hands of the irresponsible, we have problems. Who is next I wonder?

End of the freeze and...nothing.

So there we have it, the freeze ended and the Israelis continued their building. On the Israeli side no major issues. On the Palestinian side, significant concern that Abbas, the Fatah and PNA leader, has lost his spine. Abbas has publicly stated that there will be no return to violence and has deferred a decision on the talks until after he confers with the Arab League. This decision smacks of indecision and points to how weak the PNA has become under Abbas. Peace advocates will hail Abbas' statesmen like decision; however, when confronting the hawkish Israel, strength not indecision, is required. So now we wait, again. The Arab League meet again next week and until then the Israeli settlers will continue blissfully unaware that by continuing to build without significant Palestinian reprisals they have in effect strengthened Netanyahu's hand.

Talks teetering on collapse

At 22:00 GMT tonight a freeze on Israeli settlements will be lifted, meaning that Israeli settlers in the West Bank will be allowed to continue building homes. The ten month freeze has been credited as creating conditions within which the recent direct peace negotiations between the Palestinian National Authority and Israel, the first in two years, were allowed to restart in early September. Now after just a handful of meetings the issue of Israeli construction has once again emerged as a deal breaker. PNA president Abbas is currently in France of all places having snails with French President Sarkozy while the future of the talks rests with the Israeli PM, Netanyahu who is no doubt steeped in consultation with his advisers over what course to take. This is a major decision for him. If he extends the freeze he will be credited internationally as a peace maker and the talks have a chance of survival, unfortunately his ruling coalition is likely to strongly oppose such an extension and there is a possibility that they may pull their support leading to a collapse of the government, not exactly an enticing prospect for Netanyahu. The easier option will be to allow the settlement construction to continue, thus saving his own neck domestically. However, this course will lead international commentators to question Israel's commitment to peace and will further strain relations with Fatah and the PNA that had shown such promise in recent months. One other interested party will be Hamas, Fatah's main rival, who will be hoping Israel don't extend the freeze and the talks fail. Hamas will benefit greatly from this scenario as they will be able to portray it as another Israeli transgression and Fatah failure to rule the Palestinian people. At the moment there are no clear hints to the direction Netanyahu will go. The world waits for 22:01

The big freeze

With just four days left to the expiration of a freeze on Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank the future of the recent direct peace negotiations hangs in the balance. Fatah, one of the primary Palestinian groups, began a process of reengagement with Israel in early September after nearly two years. The recent talks have been touted by the US administration as a new beginning and hopes have been raised, again, of a possible break through on a future Palestinian state. Yet with a key issue, settlements, seemingly unresolved the talks seem set to fail. On the Israeli side the ruling coalition is split between those favouring a settlement freeze and those that are adamant that settlement construction is a right of the Jewish nation. Any agreement on halting settlement construction completely to meet the demands of the Palestinians will likely lead to a fall in the Israeli government. If the Palestinians agree to allow settlements to expand Fatah will lose all legitimacy and chaos will erupt across the West Bank. So what are the options available to the negotiators? A settlement freeze extension is currently the only viable option yet even this option simply delays the inevitable. The next few days and weeks will be very interesting indeed.