The Africa and Adjacent Report

Monday, March 3, 2014

Note to companies

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Egypt: Tourists targeted in bombing in Taba

A suicide bomber entered a tourist bus near Taba and the Egypt-Israel border, in Egypt's South Sinai governorate, on 17 February and detonated his explosives. The blast resulted in the deaths of three South Korean tourists and an Egyptian national. A number of other South Korean tourists were also wounded as a result. The attack was later claimed by the Sunni Islamist and al-Qaeda-linked group, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM). In a statement claiming responsibility for the attack, the group also stated that 'With God's will we will be watching this treacherous gang of infiltrators and we will target their economic interests in all places in order to paralyse their hands from hurting Muslims'. On 18 February, the group also purportedly threatened to target tourists if they did not leave the country by 20 February.

The attack against an overtly tourist target represents a significant development and may point to a new tactic by non-state armed groups in Egypt, who are agitating for the overthrow of the military-backed interim government.

Full the full article, please visit https://www.red24.com/members/intelligence/newsletters_security_briefings/egypt_touriststargeted_taba.php

Friday, February 7, 2014

Libya's constitution drafting nightmare

Libya's General National Congress voted to extend its mandate in December from its anticipate expiry on 7 February 2014 to December 2014. The vote sparked controversy and opposition from a number of quarters, including fellow GNC parties which argued that the extension was in contravention of the 2011 Constitutional Declaration.

The GNC decision to extend was born out of practicality rather than a desire to remain in office. Attempts to forge a constitution, the primary task of the GNC, has faced numerous obstacles in recent years. Militia-related violence, separatist agitation, tribal and ethnic conflict and a list of failed state-like developments have served to polarize the Libyan polity and delay a decision on the vote. Now, however, there are signs that the impasse may be coming to an end.

Libyans will go to the polls on 20 February to elect representatives to serve in the 60-member Constituent Assembly. This body, which includes 20 representatives from each of the country's three traditional regions (Cyrenaica, Tripolitania and Fezzan), will have a short period of time to finalise a draft constitution. This will then be used as a basis to hold fresh elections later in 2014, that's the theory at least.

The vote is a positive development but with increasing pressure on the GNC to dissolve, persistent pressure from minority groups to be included in the CA discussions and countless other threats to the state, the constitution creation process will be fraught with challenges. Pressure on specific members of the CA from local groups, specifically separatists, to ensure that local objectives, such as equal share of oil revenue, are enshrined in the new draft, will also complicate the process.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

The complex conflict in Anbar governorate

Iraq’s Anbar governorate has been beset by clashes between armed Sunni tribesmen, Sunni extremist fighters linked to al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and the government and its tribal allies (Awakening Councils) since 30 December. The cities of Fallujah and Ramadi have emerged as the primary battlefields in a conflict that has raised sectarian tensions, threatened to further erode the legitimacy and authority of the state and severely dented Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s national prestige and image, particularly among non-Shiite groups.

The conflict was sparked by the arrest of a prominent local Sunni politician and the disbanding of a Sunni anti-government encampment in Ramadi in late December. The action was precipitated by an astonishing about turn by Anbar governor, Ahmed Khalaf al-Dulaimi, who up to late December had supported the Sunni protesters. His throwing of his lot (and his tribes, the Albu Dhiab) into the Maliki camp, who had favoured the dispersal of the protesters, polarized an already split Anbar governorate. It was within this political mess that AQI sniffed an opportunity and began deploying its fighters to the streets of Fallujah and Ramadi, further complicating an already complex conflict. The indications to date are that AQI are not coordinating their action with local tribes, at least not officially.

Maliki has since deployed additional military brigades to Anbar in an attempt to reassert government control. The deployments have not succeeded and the Iraq army, sensing a possible defeat, has largely moved to surround the two affected cities and engage opposing gunmen in limited confrontations. The approach appears sensible at this stage. While the army can easily rout gunmen, they don’t have sufficient forces to hold territory. There are indications that the government has called for volunteers and that these forces are being trained and will be deployed to Anbar within the month to act as non-combatant support to the primary fighting units.

The approach of Maliki is not out of character. He is considered Iraq’s strong man and favours shows of strength above negotiation, which could reveal weakness to Iraq’s battle hardened tribal and militant forces. This position has served to harden opposition to his regime and stoke accusations that his government is propped up by Shiite Iran. Unsurprisingly his State of Law coalition and the predominantly Sunni Iraqiya are on poor terms. Elsewhere, the Kurds, nestled in their northern autonomous zone, have watched with interest developments in Anbar. In December, they offered troops to support Iraqi forces battling an AQI surge in Anbar. This position has since changed to KRG President Barzani criticizing Maliki’s approach to the conflict in the region. This may serve to strain ties further between the central government and KRG over the course of 2014.

Pro- government

Iraq military and police

Sunni tribal Awakening Councils led by Ahmed Abu Risha

Anbar governor, Ahmed Khalaf al-Dulaimi

Albu Fahad tribe

Albu Bali tribe

Anti-government

Albu Nimr tribe

al-Jmelat tribe

al-Halbsa tribe

Albu Issa tribe

Jaysh Rijal al-Tariqah al-Naqshabandia (JRTN)

Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)

Tribal Military Councils (established in various governorates)

The Anbar conflict is not a good thing for Iraqi stability and is a major setback for the government, which is keen to hold national elections in April. The test for the regime will be whether it can push back AQI and coopt the anti-government tribal elements into state structures or at least work to ensure their neutrality and compliance to Iraqi government authority. To achieve these goals, Maliki will need to adopt a strong military hand and negotiate through offering state jobs, position and possible payments to senior tribal leaders. Furthermore, the Sunni polities view on the Shiite dominated government could harden further and serve to stoke sectarian tensions further. The Sunni community have been largely disunited up until now, split as they are along tribal and political lines. The sense that the regime of Maliki is targeting them unfairly may push groups that had otherwise not thought of cooperation closer together. Maliki needs to address this as a matter of urgency.