Taleban control zones - ISW

Libya: Prelude to civil war?

Libya's political environment remains heavily fractured despite the emergence of a UN-backed unity government. The unity government, the Government of National Accord (GNA) has taken up residence in Tripoli; however, the two other governments, the Tripoli-based GNC and Tobruk-based HoR have refused to recognise it officially.

There are no indications of an impending deal, despite massive international support for the GNA. This has created conditions for a return to a civil war given that each of the three governments has the support of armed forces.

One impending area of competition between the three, which could signal the start of a deterioration in the security environment, is the status of Sirte. The city, located on Libya's northern coastline, is controlled by Islamic State forces. Since the start of the year these forces have expanded further along the coast and besieged or captured oil export and processing towns and sites.

The IS assault has raised international concern which has viewed the IS surge in North Africa as a direct threat to Europe. Libya's international partners have been keen to create a unified government; however, local disputes have prevented this. In the interim, local forces have begun preparing to repulse IS from Sirte knowing that by so doing, their negotiation position would be greatly improved.

In recent days, forces linked to the HoR, the Libyan National Army, have begun preparing for an offensive east of Sirte. A noticeable build up has been reported in the vicinity of Ajdabiya. Forces linked to Misratah, a strong city west of Sirte, which is home to many GNC members, has also begun deploying its forces in preparation for an assault.

The UN-backed GNA has responded with alarm and has called on both sides to desist from attempting separate assaults, knowing that if either is successful that its own position would be greatly undermined. In addition there are concerns that the competition to retake Sirte may end in clashes between Misratah and LNA forces.

These concerns have already started to come to fruition. On the 3^rd of May, rival armed groups clashed in Zillah, 400km south of Sirte. The violence reportedly involved forces linked to the Libyan National Army (LNA) and those linked to the pro-Misratah Islamist Omar Mukhtar Brigade. As a side note, the Omar Mukhtar Brigade are one of a number of militias which have been involved in fighting against the LNA for control of Benghazi since 2014.

In the absence of a political agreement, local competition is likely to result in further instability and clashes which could lay the platform for a wider conflict. The Islamic State, under severe pressure, will seek to stoke tensions and it may look to conduct further probing attacks against its rivals or conduct bombings outside of its area of operation, including in Tripoli, over the near-term.

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