The Syrian civil war is entering its fifth year and there remain no positive signs of an impending end to the conflict. Over 200,000 people have been killed, thousands more wounded and approximately 4 million people have been displaced by the conflict, that has touched every part of the country. The battle ground remains divided between multiple groupings.
The Islamic State dominates much of the eastern half of Syria; however, the Kurd YPG and some regime forces maintain control of territory along the Turkish border and, critically, in the cities of Al Hasakah and Deir Ez Zor.
In northern Syria, the battle for Aleppo city has become the key front in 2015. Nearly all rebel fighting groups, including the Islamic Front and Jabhat al Nusra, and regime-allied forces are present in or near this city. A decisive battle for control of Aleppo is unlikely in 2015 and even if one of the groups does rise to prominence, Islamic State forces, arrayed in the Aleppo countryside are unlikely to hold back any offensive against the city's defenders, be they rebel or regime.
The countryside between Aleppo west and Latakia east is largely dominated by rebel forces, including the aforementioned Islamist militant groupings and the Free Syrian Army. Kurd YPG forces are also based in an enclave near the Turkey border.
This area remains the beating heart of rebel resistance in the north. Depending on the support rebels receive from abroad, the rebels here may strike west into regime heartland territory in Latakia or Tartus or south into Hama. Islamic State forces located north of Aleppo city and possible regime counter-attacks will serve to stymie any major moves, should they occur.
The capital remains firmly in the grip of the regime; however, rebel and militant positions in Douma and East Ghouta mean that the regime maintains a heavy deployment of forces to this key political territory. Losing Damascus is not an option if the Assad regime wishes to survive and Hezbollah wants to exist as a viable militia, given its military resources are channelled through this area from its Iranian sponsors.
In the south, rebels under the command of the Southern Front (SF) and linked to Jordanian and US forces in Jordan, have carried out a series of offensives in 2015 and have captured most of Quneitra governorate and nearly all of Daraa governorate. A key battle for control of Daraa city is currently being fought. Should Daraa city fall the regime will open itself to raids into its core, the Damascus governorate. The Druze of As Suwayda governorate will also increasingly come into the gaze of the rebels in 2015 if Daraa falls and there are concerns of Islamic State incursions into As Suwayda from the north. Without the regime, the Druze will need to accept the rebel terms or, possibly, face a taxing war. Neutrality remains an unlikely future option.
2015 has, to date, proven to be yet another critical year in the Syrian conflict. The Islamic State rise has been phenomenal as has the emergence of a very strong Kurd force in the north. The regime is hanging on to an increasingly thin thread and losses to any of its outlying posts will serve to weaken it considerably and undermine its national prestige and any future bargaining position. Regional states appear to be prepared finally to support rebel groups but the support appears to be poorly directed at present and many questions remain regarding how rebel groupings, arrayed in numerous coalitions, will work together if or once their common enemy is removed.
