David Haines executed by the Islamic State

Yet another Islamic State hostage has been executed. This time David Haines, a British aid worker, was summarily beheaded following a scripted message to David Cameron, the British prime minister. The IS executioner, who spoke in a heavy British accent, also issued a statement to Cameron threatening to murder another hostage, Harald Doornbos, if the UK did not withdraw its support for US military operations in Iraq and Syria.

The beheading follows the August and early September killing of two US nationals by IS. The beheadings, all produced in high video quality and editing, were conducted by the same executioner and followed a statement against foreign intervention in Iraq and Syria. The purpose of the video appears to be three fold.

The IS are sending a message to the West. Interfere as you did in the past and blood will be spilled. It is essentially a challenge. Secondly, they are demonstrating that they too have power over the destinies of Westerners much in the way that Western powers have power over people of the region. Those executed are also wearing orange overalls, a veiled reference to Guantanamo Bay, no doubt. Thirdly, IS are sending a very subtle hint to the West through their use of a British executioner. The role of foreign jihadis in the IS expansion cannot be under estimated and showing a British citizen executing another brings the IS phenomenon home quite starkly.

The videos will have three results. One, the West will accept the challenge and will increase funding for operations to target IS in the Middle East. Two, the West will seek to use IS and the videos as a justification to clamp down on Muslim extremism in their home countries.

The consequences would appear to be quite contradictory to IS intended goals. If the IS want to establish a state, goading the most powerful militaries into a conflict does not seems sensible, or does it? The mentality of IS appears irrational; however, their worldview differs considerably from the West's. The IS battle is one of truth against falsehood and it is an eternal battle. The ultimate goal is the liberation of all Muslim lands and the destruction of forces viewed as anti-Islam, namely secularism, Christianity, Judaism and the West. Spreading Islam through the gun and sword is justifiable, even commanded by Allah, in their view.

For a video of the recent execution and some commentary, check out the Shafaak news website. Note the images are graphic. http://www.iraqinews.com/features/urgent-video-isis-beheads-uk-aid-worker-david-haines/

The cost of war - Syrian regime air strike in Douma, Damascus on 11 September

Syrian aircraft launched an air strike against the rebel-controlled city of Douma in the greater Damascus area yesterday. Activists say over 40 people were killed in the strikes. Video has begun appearing on the web showing the aftermath of the attack. Victims are shown litterred across a street. Some are severely wounded. Note the visuals are graphic. 

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=546639892104493

ISW's new Iraq and Syria Map

http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/

The Houthis not so subtle power play

On 8 September, Abdel Malik al-Houthi (pictured here), said that protests would continue in Sanaa.



The groups is playing on common Yemeni complaints that the government is corrupt and not striving to build on the gains of the 2011 Revolution and 2013/14 NDC to enhance its own regional ambitions. Protesters are currently located in numerous areas of the country. The map shows areas of the capital where the main protest camps are located. Since 18 August, when the protests began, only one protester has been killed. The protester died after the first incident of major violence on 7 September along Sanaa's Airport Road.

Iraq's new government

Iraq's Council of Representatives approved the cabinet line-up of Haider al-Abadi on 8 September. The appointment is a positive development for the country, which has faced months of wrangling over the post of prime minister and an ongoing Sunni militant offensive in the country's centre and north.

Somehow the Iraqi state has managed to survive recent developments and PM Al-Abadi has a historic opportunity to turn things around. But, as always, obstacles remain. His former boss, Nouri Al-Maliki, who resigned in early August following intense pressure over his failure to organise a ruling coalition, remains in the game, just. He is one of three vice presidents. The office carries no real power yet his presence and strong support among elements of the security forces will serve him well if he intends positioning for further power.

The Kurdish bloc are another challenge. The Kurds occupied swathes of territory in June in the north after the Iraqi Army was routed by the Islamic State. They are demanding that the oil and gas revenue debacle, dispute territory issue and status of Kirkuk be addressed in the next three months. If it is not, they are going to leave the government.

Abadi also needs to fill two key positions in his cabinet, the defence and interior ministry positions. Under al-Mailiki these positions were attached to the office of the premier. Under Abadi's new 'inclusive' government he will seek consensus candidates to take these posts. I won't be surprised if, in an effort to reach out to the Sunnis, that he appoints a Sunni politician to one or both of these posts.

And the elephant in the room. The Islamic State control approximately a quarter of the country, including Fallujah, Tikrit and Mosul. The US has joined the fray but a longer lasting solution will require the reformation of the Iraqi military (and its unity). Ground forces are unlikely to be supplied by Obama and the Iraqi Army and its allies will need to gear up for a major fight. The Kurd question also comes into play. The Kurds will likely seek to position themselves to gain as much as they can from their military presence in the north. Concessions will be difficult to come by though as Abadi will face stiff opposition to any suggestions of providing the Kurds with more power.

Internationally, Abadi will find friends in Iran and the US. Strange but powerful bedfellows. Both nations will seek to provide security support but will be cautious in over reaching for fear of isolating the Sunni minority further. Finding the balance will be key in the next six months.