Leftist politician assassinated in Tunis

Leading leftist politician, Mohamed Brahmi, was gunned down in Tunis on 25 July. The killing sparked protests in a number of areas of the country and has precipitated a mini-political crisis in the country. The opposition are rallying around the killing and are accusing the ruling Ennahda party of orchestrating the killing. The developments mirror those following the murder of another leftist in February, Chokri Belaid. The current tensions coincide with heightened political turmoil regarding the new draft constitution and the delay in getting this document published. The opposition are calling for the fall of the government and are adamant that a national unity government should replace the current government to 'rescue the revolution'. Political opportunism, perhaps. However, the impact on Tunisia in the near-term is going to be far reaching. Ennahda may react as it did in February and accept the resignation of the government but still maintain power but with so much anti-Ennahda/Islamist sentiment one wonders if they will survive this round of protests. Tunisia's Revolution continues.

Quick takes - Syria

Rebel schism is the top story out of Syria today. Islamist extremists assassinated a senior FSA commander in Latakia on 11 July straining relations between the two groups who are, technically, allies in a conflict against the Syrian regime. This incident may prove one of a series of final blows to the rebel alliance which has lost significant ground since its blitzkrieg in 2012. The Syrian regime is stabilising and gaining ground in the centre and north of the country placing massive pressure on the poorly resourced rebel contingents. Splits between the rebels and the Kurd militias in the north also highlights the massive disunity within the anti-regime ranks. If a solution is not found imminently, the Bashar al-Assad regime will gain further ground and may find itself in a position to strike a lasting blow against the rebels.

Quick takes - Egypt

Egyptian political instability remains a massive medium-term concern for the MENA region. The Islamist parties have largely rejected calls by the military and interim authority to join reconciliation talks and are continuing to organise anti-military protests. Recent protests on Monday night resulted in violence in downtown Cairo leaving seven people dead. The violence mirrored clashes last Monday in Cairo outside of the Republican Guard HQ in Nasr City which left dozens dead. The polarisation of the Egyptian polity is unlikely to be overcome anytime soon and instability is likely to remain a pressing concern until 2014 at least. 

Egypt's political turmoil

On the third of July the Egyptian military forced the resignation of President Mohammed Mursi. The military measure followed days of anti-Islamist protests by secular, liberal and Coptic groups under the Tamarod or Rebellion campaign. The military intervention was welcomed by protesting groups; however, a strong protest backlash from Islamist backers of Mursi, notably his own Muslim Brotherhood and FJP parties, indicates that the political crisis in Egypt is far from over.

 

The MB and FJP has since been removed from power having been replaced by a transitional authority under the guidance of the head of the constitutional court and current interim president, Adly Mansour. The Islamists have, naturally, denounced the takeover and are threatening to boycott any future elections. Should the Islamists follow through on their threat the political instability in the country will likely worsen further in the near-term as any future government will not enjoy popular legitimacy, given the MB and FJPs massive countrywide support. That said, Egypt's stability is unlikely to be secured for the next five years, let alone in 2013, as long as there is a military that has the power to act unilaterally against civilian governments it deems unworthy. Egypt requires a complete political transformation if it is to maintain stability. As long as there is a system that provides a civilian president with major powers - which also exists with a military that dominates the state and its economy - coups and takeovers are likely to remain the norm.

 

So what is the impact on business people and tourists? Simply put…not much. The protests since the Arab Spring have affected specific areas of the country, such as main public squares in major and secondary cities and towns. Resort areas, where tens of thousands of foreigners visit annually, have been largely unaffected. This includes Sharm el Sheikh and Hurghada. What visitors to Egypt should be wary of, however, is the location of protests, which should be avoided, and the impact unrest can have on demand for transport. During past upheavals panic amongst foreigners has resulted in a large out flow of visitors and an increased demand for flights. Protests also frequently block main thoroughfares adding to the already congested Egyptian roadways. 

 

In addition to the threat of unrest, clients should also be fully aware of the ongoing elevated threat of terrorism in Egypt. Islamist extremists are present in Egypt and pose a direct risk to Westerners. Attacks in Sharm el Sheikh, Dahab and Taba between 2004 and 2006 underlined the heightened threat from this quarter and while security remains elevated, the recent military moves against Islamist political parties and personalities increases the likelihood that these militant groups (or self-radicalized individuals, may conduct or attempt a mass casualty attack… in a tourist area… in the future.

 

Red24's travel advisory for Egypt will fluctuate in response to developments in the country and clients intending to travel to or operate in the country are advised to keep a close watch on changes on the red24 Egypt country page. The country page can be accessed through the red24 website… at red24.com.