Anti-US protests - What we don't see

The current round of anti-US unrest in the Muslim world, in protests against the incendiary US-produced film, Innocence of Muslims, has been manufactured. This past week Egypt’s Grand Mufti, Ali Gomaa, openly condemned the film and its contents. His speech effectively started the ball rolling with protests first reported in Egypt and then in Libya. Gomaa is also partly responsible for fanning the flames of the 2006 Prophet Muhammed caricature unrest which led to protests and attacks on Danish embassies across the globe. The political forces in Egypt, notably Muhammad Mursi, the current president, and the second largest Islamist party, al-Nour, have attempted to hijack this growing anti-Western sentiment for their own gain. They have called for mass protests. This issue now threatens to snowball further as conservative Islamist groups from Morocco to Bangladesh call for similar anti-US demonstrations today. The film itself is an insult to every film maker on the planet. It is poorly made and produced and its screenplay is banal and void of any logical progression. That this came to spark the level of opposition in the Muslim world, clearly indicates a hidden hand and ulterior motive.

Coordinated bombings and shootings across Iraq on Sunday

Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked numerous targets across Iraq on Sunday killing over 100 people. The attacks coincided with the sentencing of Vice President al-Hashimi on terrorism charges. He received the death sentence. The two incidents would appear to be connected. Hashimi is a Sunni Muslim politician who has strong links with Sunni political parties in the country. The attacks were in all likelihood committed by al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni group, which is attempting to incite sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis. By attacking during the sentencing it is sending a strong message to the government and raising tensions significantly between Shiites, who were the most frequently targeted on Sunday, and their Sunni brethren.

US Naval positions

The incredibly useful US naval update from Stratfor was released on 5 September and has some rather interesting info. There are currently two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, the Dwight D Eisenhower and Enterprise while the Big Deck Amphibiouswarfare ship, Iwo Jima, is cruising off the Yemeni coastline. There has been talk of a major US-led naval wargame in the Persian Gulf in September and an increase in naval military activity in this region is anticipated. This is all part of a larger game being played between the West, Israel and Iran over the latters nuclear development program. The US is keen to show its military might to coerce Iran into acceding to IAEA regulations and demands to inspect its nuclear sites. Iran has responded by announcing its own war games. . . Game on.

Rising prices and unrest

The increasing price of petrol remains a mystery to me. Why does it increase? What are the mechanisms involved? My general understanding is that a portion of the price is for local taxes and levies and the other is linked to the oil price. Thus fluctuations in the price and changes in the exchange rates would impact the cost. Easy enough, yet why do government's allow the price to fluctuate so? In some parts of the world even minor adjustments can cause significant social unrest and undermine the authority of the government. The West Bank is starting to feel the pinch at the moment and over the past two days protests and transport strikes have affected the territory widely leading Mahmoud Abbas to proudly announce at the Arab League Summit in Cairo on Wedensday that the Palestinian Spring had begun - a reference to the Arab Spring of 2011. Questions aside what is clear is that the following theorem can be used to determine unrest. Petrol price increase = Unrest increase + political instability. We should expect a few more countries in the region and in Asia, in particular, to begin to experience demonstrations soon. On a more forward thinking note one can but wonder if this is all sustainable. Clearly it is not. The population of the world is increasing. Oil is dwindling, we are told, and prices of nearly every commodity are sky-rocketing while unemployment is increasing. A rocky road ahead indeed.