Bahrain from Crisis Group

Until 2011, the tiny island nation of Bahrain was mainly known to the outside world for one thing: an annual Formula One car race, the first of its kind in the Middle East, that signified the country's arrival among the community of stable advanced nations. But then came last spring's popular uprising and brutal government crackdown, and a different side of this Gulf monarchy came to light: the longstanding grievances held by many Bahrainis, including above all members of the island's Shia majority, against its Sunni ruling family, who in turn seem prepared to use force to hold onto power. The regime prevailed, and after inviting an investigation of human rights abuses last fall, it suggested it was bringing the country back to normal; this spring's Grand Prix would show the world it had succeeded. 

But as I discovered during a five-day visit shortly before the race, nothing could be further from the truth. Talking to dozens of people both in Manama and in smaller communities outside the capital, I was told again and again that the situation was becoming worse, not better: police forces have been using large quantities of tear gas against protesters, repeatedly causing deaths; police brutality had not ended but moved from police stations to alleyways and undeclared detention centers; young activists are increasingly resorting to Molotov cocktails, subverting the peaceful nature of the protests; and the government has not opened any dialogue with the opposition or offered hope for political reform. Protests occurred nightly in Shiite villages and neighborhoods during my stay, and a veritable battle of graffiti took place on the walls of shops and houses, with protesters writing slogans calling for the end of the regime, police erasing them with a quick coat of paint, and activists scribbling new ones seemingly before the paint had dried.

And so while the Grand Prix, Bahrain's single prestige event, did take place in late April, it happened amid clouds of tear gas and wafts of smoke from firebombs, as well as an outcry over the death of a protester apparently as a result of shotgun pellets fired by riot police. On the day of the event, a political activist, Abdulhadi Alkhawaja, was into his eleventh week of a hunger strike to protest his imprisonment on allegations of plotting to overthrow the state during last year's protests. (As of this writing, the hunger strike is now in its ninetieth day.)

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/bahrain/hiltermann-bahrain-a-new-sectarian-conflict.aspx

Elections in Algeria

There is just over a week to go until Algerians head to the polls to elect a new parliament. The elections, which are being held on time, are a great opportunity for the regime to bolster its legitimacy and for opposition groups to increase their power to influence political reforms from within the governing structures of the state; however, to what degree the Bouteflika government will allow them to do so is yet to be tested. The government is expected to deploy 60,000 troops in the coming days to safeguard the poll. These measures are being implemented to quash unrest, particularly in the capital. A number of opposition parties and activists groups have called for a boycott of the poll and are expected to organise protests. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has also threatened to conduct attacks during the period. During April, at least 11 incidents were reported in the north of the country. The number represented a spike in terrorist related incidents. While still low compared to previous years and largely expected (attacks increase in the warmed months) the incidents serve as a warning that the group maintains an active a deadly presence. Don’t expect AQIM to disrupt the poll significantly; however, anticipate at least one major attack, possibly in an urban setting.

Syria's unrelenting conflict

The UN’s attempts to end the fighting in Syria continue to be met with opposition from those that have, reportedly, agreed to the truce. Loyalist forces continue attacks against some dissident cities and rebels and Islamist extremists persist in attacking state security forces and facilities. The violence not only undermines the truce but also significantly erodes the UN’s image. Without a stick the carrot of a truce is unlikely to work and has been vividly displayed as useless. The Syrian regime wants to eradicate the rebels or wants the rebels to surrender and will not remove its heavy weapons from urban centres without a good reason to do so. The rebels meanwhile continue to respond to the loyalist attacks with attacks of their own. The third players, the extremists, remain outside of any agreement and are likely to continue to operate in the country for years to come. The situation in the north and south remains particularly bad and while the centre remains relatively calm one cannot help but sense that a breaking point is fast approaching.