A word on Libya

Southern Libya is a desert and barren area save one major factor, the presence of oil and tribes with strong links to the land. In the past two months one tribe in particular has made regional headlines for its continuing battle with the authorities. The tribe in question is the Tibu, a semi-nomadic grouping which is based in southern Libya and northern Chad. In February, Tibu tribesmen fought a series of battles with Zwai tribal gunmen in Kufra leaving 100 people dead. The fighting, which erupted over control of smuggling routes, was followed by clashes in Sabha on 25 to 29 March (ongoing) between Tibu and Abu Seif tribesmen following a local dispute. This is not the first occasion such violence has occurred. The tribe has clashed with the Libyan central authority in the past. In 2008, it fought battles in Kufra with Zawi tribesmen and the al-Gaddafi security forces after the government initiated a process of discrimination against them. The tension with the local Zwai was further exacerbated by an influx of Tibu refugees from Chad into the Kufra area. Tensions remain elevated and continue to rest on Libyan government distrust of the darker skinned Tibu, the Tibu's strong links to Chad (where a number of ex-al-Gaddafi loyalists are currently based) and long standing grievances over past conflicts. The current round of fighting is unlikely to be the last as at least one local Tibu leader has called for secession. 

Post-Arab Spring malaise

The Middle East is entering the post-Arab Spring period in a daze of dashed hopes and declining economic performance. The well-spring of optimism that change would bring about a better life has been replaced with despair as the realities of the global economy and power of the entrenched political elite become ever more stark. Nowhere is this reality more evident than in Yemen where a political transition from Saleh to Hadi is simply a change of advertising. Hadi, a regime acolyte for many years, leads a government and a state that remains filled with Saleh family members and loyalists. Saleh himself also remains head of the ruling GPC and is expected to way in heavily in government policy in the short-term. Economically, the country is shattered. Tribes continue to hit pipelines in the east disrupting what little oil is being pumped out while civil war in the north, south and east continues to sap central government resources. The reality of the post-Arab Spring Middle East is also evident in Egypt. Poverty and unemployment are rife and impact on most Egyptian families. Butane gas shortages result in long queues while access to other basic commodities for millions is largely dependent on government handouts. Political change has come but for what? What Egypt requires is a dynamic and revolutionary government - at present it has an Islamist dominated parliament that is too scared to take on the military and a military that does not want its privileged position affected. Bleak times ahead indeed for the Pharaohs. But its not all doom and gloom. Its snowing in the Levant and Bahrain just beat Indonesia 10-0 in a World Cup qualifier.