Israel - Palestinian tensions

Palestinian Israeli tensions are on the radar again. On Friday, PNA leader, Abbas, submitted an application for Palestinian statehood to the UNSC. He requires 9 votes from the 15 members of the Security Council to get his state. So, whats the problem you ask? Israel, is the simple answer. It does not want a Palestinian state, particularly one that could have friendly ties to Hamas (which wants to destroy Israel) and Iran (which really wants to destroy Israel). So the Abbas move threw a bit of a spanner. The US has recognised the possibility of a conflict, should the bid succeed and are on hand to veto the move. While they've stated they do not want to use it, they certainly will, in my opinion, and Abbas knows it. So why continue? Abbas is desperate. Negotiations between Israel and the PNA are dead in the water as both sides have finally realised each side are unable to compromise - Israel want land for settlements in the West Bank and the Palestinians want land in Israeli occupied territory. While some sort of negotiation may be forthcoming in the next few months, this position is unlikely to change and conflict seems inevitable. Abbas then is playing his one remaining card. His ace in the deck is too power a UNSC vote through, hope that the US don't veto and then hope that Israel doesn't occupy the West Bank and undo all the good work the PNA has done there in recent years. And I for one, do not blame him for this approach. At this most critical of times, when conflict seems so close, Israel continues to authorise settlements. A mere two days after the UN bid Israel authorities gave the green light for 1,100 new settlement structures. Israel may say they want peace, but in reality all they want is everything, and that my dear reader, can lead to only one outcome.

Turkey's moves against Israel - Debka's view

Debka, a highly biased and unreliable media source, has provided some surprisingly good analysis of the situation or crisis developing between Turkey and Israel. It explores a number of reasons why Turkish president, Erdogan is pursuing a confrontational position vis-a-vis the Jewish state. The full article is available here http://www.debka.com/article/21282/

"Minister Tayyip Erdogan this week coolly moved his country step by provocative step towards an armed clash with Israel – not just over the Palestinian issue, but because he covets the gas and oil resources of the eastern Mediterranean opposite Israel's shores. Thursday night, Sept. 8, he announced that Turkish warships will escort any Turkish aid vessels for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In his remarks to Al Jazeera television, the Turkish prime minister also said he had taken steps "to stop Israel from unilaterally exploiting natural resources from the eastern Mediterranean." He did not say what steps he had taken. However, for some time now, he has moved mountains to isolate Israel by drawing a double diplomatic noose around it."

Syrian resistance close at hand

Protesters are gathering in Cairo, Sanaa, Amman and parts of Damascus today as protests for greater political freedoms continue. While reporting has become slightly jaded on the Arab Spring, youth activists continue to push regimes for their demands to be met. The situation in Syria is particularly concerning. Unlike other government's, the Assad regime is standing firm that it will not reform or meet protester demands. We fully expect armed rebellion shortly; however, whether this is successful or not is uncertain as Syria's elite military forces are a hard nut to crack. These forces, like Gaddafi's hiding out in the Libyan desert, are fiercely loyal to the regime and the ruling Alawite sect.

Turkey's strategic shift regarding Israel

The fallout of the Israeli raid on the Gaza flotilla in 2010 continues to be felt in the region. Just recently the Turk government severed major diplomatic ties with Israel and pulled out of all existing military pacts with the Jewish state. It has also announced it will be withdrawing from commercial links with Israel. Now, today, media reports are surfacing that Turk leader, Erdogan, will be pursuing closer military ties with Egypt. This is a major shift in geopolitical loyalties and places enormous strain on Israel at a time when the threat of war is escalating. To Israel's north Lebanon is currently controlled by Hezbollah and its allies, Syria is in the throes of unrest and Gaza is ready to exact revenge for countless IAF airstrikes. The Palestinian Authority is also readying for a UN vote on statehood. Should it pass the impact on Israel would be enormous as anti-Israel regimes (Iran, Syria etc) would gain a strong ally on Israel's doorstep. Even if it doesn't pass there is a major threat of civil unrest in the West Bank. Only Jordan appears to maintain its neutrality with regards to Israel. Interesting times ahead.