Maliki throws a tantrum

In what is likely to result in significant political tensions in the coming weeks - Nouri al-Maliki's, State of Law, party have emerged with two seats fewer than Iraqiya. The result means that Maliki is likely to loose his position as PM in the coming weeks as Iraqiya seek an alliance with other major parties to form a ruling coalition. Maliki has already decried the result alleging widespread fraud and demanding a manual recount. However, both the Iraq Election Commission and UN body assigned to oversee the election had deemed the poll free and fair. It will now be up to the Iraqi Supreme Court to give the results a final sign off before becoming official. In the mean time pressure from Maliki will continue to be borne down on the bodies assigned to oversee the poll. But will there be violence? Maliki's election platform was based on returning law and order to the country. If there was one party we had to choose to feel aggrieved it would be the State of Law - a coalition of parties that have openly based their political outlook on due process and rule of law. However, fringe groups will continue to attempt to undermine the political system. The Islamic State of Iraq, aka al-Qaeda in Iraq, have already stated that they will be moving towards targeting political parties. The group has shown a tremendous ability to fight on despite loosing large swathes of territory in the west and centre in recent years. Its highly complex multiple terrorist bombings in supposedly well-protected urban centres has surprised many, no least the 1 million strong Iraqi security forces. Interesting times ahead for Iraq.

Ethnic cleansing in central Nigeria

While MECASR rarely documents security related news from Nigeria a recent act of violence has caught our attention. On 7 March dozens of Muslim Hausa-Fulani herders brandishing simple weapons such as clubs, machetes and knives attacked predominantly Borom Christian villages outside of Jos in Plateau State. Some reports indicate that the attackers used fishing nets and animal traps to snare their vicitms, mainly women and children, before hacking them to death. The aftermath of the attack has shocked locals and the world. Over 500 bodies have so far been recovered from the early sunday morning blood-letting and the army has been placed on alert and deployed to the state. The violence follows similiar communal clashes in January that left approximately 300 people dead. The fact that such violence is allowed to continue is a serious endictment of the local security forces and Nigerian domestic intelligence services. The Nigerian government is well aware of the simmering tensions along the Muslim north and Christian south faultine which cuts Nigeria in half through Plateau state but has put few measures in place to counter the problem. Competition over local farmland, cattle theft and migration of northerners into central Nigeria has been the primary motivation for the violence and if these issues are not addressed quickly further communal violence is likely. MECASR continues to watch developments closely and the reaction of the current regime which is being led by stand-in president Goodluck Jonathan.   

Triple suicide attacks underscore security risks in Iraq ahead of poll

A complex terrorist attack in Baquba, Diyala governorate, left dozens of people dead earlier today. Suspected Sunni extremists detonated two car bombs in central and western Baquba near police stations and a busy intersection leaving a swathe of destruction. A third bomber, dressed in military uniform, ambushed the wounded at a nearby hospital, nearly tripling the casualty count. The attacks come four days before key parliamentary elections and underlines the ability of extremists to continue to carry out attacks despite widespread security measures already in force. Mecasr will be watching developments closely.