Friday, April 13, 2007
Monday, April 2, 2007
Analysing the risk of terrorism and politics
Heres a short piece I did exactly two years on how to evaluate terrorism and political stability. Very simplified but provides a starting point for understanding how risk is evaluated.
Terrorism:
Current status
We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)
There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.
This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.
The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.
The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)
On that occasion___.
OR / AND
The most recent threat received from a terror group.
Modus Operandi & Area of operation
The most high risk regions are__. The safer regions are_____
Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)
The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)
Analysis
We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___
Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents
Personal response
What you can do-general security advice.
Politics:
Historical context
Main political players, current government
Government policies, policy direction
Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology
Threat to stability? Internal - external
Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence
Response to the threat. Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc
Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security. Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.
Terrorism:
Current status
We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)
There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.
This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.
The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.
The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)
On that occasion___.
OR / AND
The most recent threat received from a terror group.
Modus Operandi & Area of operation
The most high risk regions are__. The safer regions are_____
Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)
The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)
Analysis
We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___
Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents
Personal response
What you can do-general security advice.
Politics:
Historical context
Main political players, current government
Government policies, policy direction
Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology
Threat to stability? Internal - external
Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence
Response to the threat. Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc
Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security. Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.
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