Trouble in Kenya

 President Ruto came to power in 2022 on the back of a pro-poor campaign. Now, in 2024, he is under immense pressure as protests against his rule have reached an all-time peak.

The trigger for the latest round of civil unrest in Kenya has been a contentious Finance Bill. The bill would've led to higher taxes for a population that was already suffering under the weight of a cost of living crisis and a broken economy with the usual splattering of government elite corruption and excess. Activists and opposition groups rioted in Nairobi and dozens of other cities in late June culminating in the storming of Parliament. The unrest, which continues to simmer, has left 39 people dead. 

Ruto, for his part, acted swiftly, refusing to sign the bill into power, sacking his entire cabinet, and opening up social media dialogue with 'the people'. This hasn't assuaged the anger of the street and protests have continued. It appears a new mental barrier has been crossed, a new reality has been created one in which, for many people, Ruto does not feature. The president's time is almost up.

Whether he makes it to 2027 is anyone's guess of course. The protests could splutter and fade but the sense is, this time its different. "Its the economy, stupid" rings true as much in Africa as it does in the US. Without a drastic turnaround, the pressure on the ruling elite will only increase. Persistent instability is likely to follow.

South Africa - Elections - Haggling for Cabinet Posts

 The ANC and DA continue to haggle over cabinet posts four weeks after the national election. The process has been slow going with offers and counter-offers, some leaked, some secret, flying back and forth between the two parties. As the party with the most seats and the former ruling party, the ANC is keen to maintain its dominant position. As such, it will seek to gain as much from the talks and leverage its position as much as possible. For the DA, it will continue to ask for more and likely already have a figure of cabinet posts in mind for what it would be happy to finish with. 

This remains unchartered territory for South Africa. Local government coalition talks are one things. Control of cabinet positions with actual national power is a completely different animal. The DA and ANC will need to tread carefully. Any fracturing of this very new 'agreement' will have consequences for both down the line and for certain personalities. President Cyril Ramaphosa, recently sworn in for a second term with the backing of the DA, will have one eye on the vultures in his own party and without - chief among them the EFF and MK - who want him gone. He enjoys majority internal support for now but if a deal is struck that a majority of the ANC leadership are opposed to or if he is seen as bowing to DA pressure, he could be on the way out.

This probably goes someway to explaining the media handbags this past week. Leaked letters and posturing are likely part of the game. The DA, knowing what is at stake for Cyril, possibly leaked the document to put pressure on the ANC and provide Cyril with some ammunition to fire back. The DA's initial ask of 11 posts are likely entirely inflated, and they will probably settle on 6, thus giving Ramaphosa a 'win' inside his own party and some additional wiggle room to survive till Christmas. If Cyril goes, the DA know that the deal and GNU are done. Whoever comes in next - probably Mashatile - will pick up with the MK and then, who knows. 

The DA Fed met last night, and no doubt the ANC bigwigs are also still debating. Let's see what the weekend talks bring. Hopefully, by Monday, there is some positive indication that we are closer to a deal. If that happens step 2 will have been completed. With many, many more steps to come.

Post-election coalition talks in South Africa

 South Africa enters a new phase post-May 29. With election results out and no clear winner arch enemies will be required to work together to govern. Socialists, centrists, tribalists, populists and liberals. All together for the 'Rainbow Nation'. 

Coalition talks are underway and the early guesses are is that we'll get:

DA supporting the ANC minority government.

DA and IFP support the ANC minority government.

(Both in return for concessions - policy and positions).

DA IFP ANC government of national unity. 

The MK - which wants the CR faction gone in ANC for a deal and EFF - which is radical - are unlikely to crack the nod. 

Grab the popcorn folks.

Vote ANC. You are the problem.

 If you vote ANC on May 29. You are the problem.

SA: The election precipice

 South Africa is nine days away from a historic and defining election. Over the course of its history, the country has, at different times, been dominated by one force over the other: the British, the Afrikaner nationalists, and now the Black nationalists. For the first time, democratic and peaceful means may lead to a new order—an order of coalitions, differing worldviews, and ideologies, and one that could redefine the country.

Latest polling suggests that the ANC could receive around 45% of the vote with the DA in second at around the 25% mark. The impact of load shedding, economic and municipal mismanagement, and, quite frankly, bizarre socialist policies have come home to roost for the ANC. So, what lies ahead if this result plays out. The DA and its partners in the Multi-Party Charter are unlikely to breach the 50+1 mark. Leaving the formation of a government up to the ANC. Its relationship with the MK and EFF (in third and fourth place) is shaky. Its former leader, Zuma, recently banned from standing in Parliament, has an awkward relationship with about half the party. The EFF’s Julius Malema is an unpredictable player and a strong ANC critic. However, the right financial and power incentives could sway him to join.

It is likely that the ANC will seek out a smaller partner or smaller partners. Ones that it can control. Lining up is the colored nationalist PA, the Afrikaner nationalist FF+, or Islamist Al-Jamaah. However, if the ANC achieves 45 or less, it may still need more partners. The potential for an agreement (not coalition) with the DA exists. The DA could demand certain policy guarantees from the ANC in exchange for a vote for the deputy speaker, speaker and president.

The two weeks following the election will be critical. Negotiations will occur, and decisions will be made. If none are made, and in the extreme case, the ANC could call for fresh elections. This seems possible but unlikely.

Another factor to consider is that should the ANC not be able to reach a stable governing coalition, Cyril Ramaphosa could be recalled by the party. It’s been done before. This could usher in the likes of Paul Mashatile, the current Deputy President.

Whichever way you look at it, drama is likely to come in early June.

The True Size of Countries

 

Inequality in South Africa? Which Province fares best?

 Well, you decide.

https://www.westerncape.gov.za/provincial-treasury/sites/provincial-treasury.westerncape.gov.za/files/atoms/files/Western%20Cape%20Overview%20of%20Provincial%20Revenue%20and%20Expenditure%202023.pdf

Trust the Data - Vote accordingly South Africa

 

South Africa's Geopolitical Challenges

 South Africa's geopolitical concerns are deeply intertwined with its unique geography. The economic epicenter in Gauteng faces challenges due to the absence of navigable rivers, relying instead on an extensive road network for transportation. Stability in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) is vital, given its pivotal ports essential for international trade.

Managing secessionist sentiments, notably in the Western Cape, is crucial for national unity. Moreover, South Africa's leadership within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) requires delicate diplomacy to balance regional dynamics. Additionally, navigating China's growing influence in Africa presents both opportunities and challenges, shaping South Africa's foreign policy decisions. These geopolitical factors underscore the intricate balance South Africa must maintain between domestic stability, regional leadership aspirations, and global partnerships, emphasizing the complexity of its geopolitical landscape.

The African Union

• AU grapples with conflicts, hampering peace efforts.
• Economic development hindered by corruption, infrastructure gaps.
• Global influence limited by powerful actors.
• Regional cooperation stymied by divergent interests.
• Overcoming challenges needs concerted efforts for AU's vision of a united Africa.

The African Union (AU) grapples with a myriad of geopolitical challenges that test its efficacy and relevance in the global arena. Foremost among these challenges is the persistence of conflicts and instability across the continent. From the enduring crises in regions like the Horn of Africa and the Sahel to the emergence of new conflicts in places like the Tigray region of Ethiopia, the AU faces an uphill battle in maintaining peace and security. Limited resources, differing national interests, and complex ethnic and political dynamics often impede effective conflict resolution efforts, highlighting the AU's struggles in asserting its authority and influence.

Economic development remains a daunting task for the AU as well. Despite Africa's vast potential and abundant natural resources, many countries continue to grapple with poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment. Rampant corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and economic dependencies on external actors further exacerbate these challenges. While initiatives like Agenda 2063 outline ambitious plans for economic transformation, implementation often falls short due to governance failures, bureaucratic inefficiencies, and a lack of financial resources.

On the global stage, the AU's relevance is frequently overshadowed by more powerful international actors. Africa's voice in global affairs is often marginalized, and its interests are sometimes disregarded in favor of those of major powers. Limited diplomatic leverage, institutional weaknesses, and historical legacies of colonialism constrain the AU's ability to shape international agendas and policies effectively.

Regionally, while the AU strives to promote cooperation and integration, it contends with divergent national interests and competing priorities among its member states. Disputes over borders, resources, and governance frequently undermine efforts at regional unity and solidarity. Initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) face numerous implementation challenges, reflecting broader difficulties in achieving meaningful integration and cooperation among African nations.

In conclusion, while the AU aspires to be a force for positive change in Africa and beyond, its path is fraught with daunting geopolitical realities. From conflict resolution to economic development and global diplomacy, the AU faces formidable obstacles that require pragmatic and concerted efforts from both its member states and the international community. Success in overcoming these challenges will determine the AU's ability to fulfill its mandate and realize its vision for a peaceful, prosperous, and united Africa.

Don't put me in a box! Voting May 29 - how we stand

 Just under two months to go before South Africans go to the polls (or for 50% of registered voters, sleep in). So, where are the parties standing?

The Social Research Foundation has been kind enough to collate all the polling data. 

https://srfreports.co.za/reports/medium-term-election-polling-trends-for-south-africa

So what's going on here? It seems the DA's inability to poll higher than 23-25% continues to afflict the party. They are unable to extend support - there are multiple reasons for this - race, identity, image etc Bottomline, we'll need to 'wait and see' for the results. But if I were them, I'd be worried. The ANC has done everything it can do to shoot itself in the foot. Has the DA done everything it can to convince black, particularly rural, voters, to its side. I don't think so.

The ANC's dip is almost guaranteed - in the polls. Again, time will tell; however, the good money is on them going below 50% which would be massive in the political history of SA which has always had one dominant administration. The emergence of MK in KZN - with its massive voter base - will be a major headache for the party which could see the ANC slide from 48-49% down to 45-46%. 

The EFF, the communist white hating populists we've all come to love and hate, continue to occupy the weird 10-15% range. They won't govern anywhere really. They may be kingmakers though and that is what Sultan Malema is relying on. So, to their horde of Twitter Trolls, no, 50+ is not happening.

The IFP. KZN for you fellas. Not much to be said there. I've not seen an IFP poster outside of KZN for years.

For all the minnows, and yes that is what they are, they will try and grab a seat or two here and there. ActionSA may be one that does more than that nationally while it and a handful of others could be key in coalition governments in Gauteng.

KZN will be a hot mess and the province that experienced the worst violence in 2021 since the early 1990s mini-civil war will likely experience more hurt and pain as MK runs amok and coalitions come and go. 

The Western Cape. Sigh. How has the DA managed not to grow here? Stunning. But I'll blame the voters, freshly arrived from the EC for this one. They don't see how well the WC is doing. The DA's messaging also doesn't seem to resonate sufficiently. They'll struggle to 51% and keep it going. If they go below, the FF+ will be there to support them. 

Overall, the pre-election period should be peaceful, except in KZN. The post-election scene will be fraught with coalition chaos which could impact coalitions in municipal and metro areas. But again, peaceful, except in KZN where I am expecting more violence post-election as new realities start to take shape.

My predictions:

National (400 seats)

ANC 188 (47%)
DA 92 (23%)
EFF 56 (14%)
IFP 15 (3.5%)
FF+ 12 (3%)
ActionSA 6 (1.5%)

Minnows: 32 (8%) *

*The ANC will likely tap this pool to form a national coalition

I HATE INFLATION

 South Africa and much of the world continue to face a significant inflation problem. In SA, the problem is all the more pressing for the countless poor (50% of the population live in poverty, just under that are unemployed) where food inflation continues to track above the national inflation figure. While fuel/transport inflation has stabilized since this time last year the high prices continue to deal a double whammy to consumers. SA relies on its road network to move goods around. Higher fuel costs = higher food ... actually higher everything ... costs. Provinces also differ. The Western Cape's inflation rate continues to rise above the national figure. The government continues to respond with its old interest rate tool. It isn't an encouraging or useful tool in the SA context. Trying to stifle demand where little exists at scale is odd. With an election around the corner, the cost of everything skyrocketing will be top of mind for many voters. The rich will holiday one less time this year. The middle class will eat out once instead of twice a month. The poor won't eat every third day. The election and its aftermath will be a very, very interesting thing to watch.

Jobs! Jobs? Yes, Jobs!

 The Western Cape provincial government, led by the Democratic Alliance, has gone to great lengths to foster an investment friendly environment. Jobs, jobs, jobs! Premier Alan Winder and Cape Town Mayor Geordin Lewis have been at the frontlines of encouraging small to medium size enterprises and larger firms. After years of a majority domination, and despite receiving little to no national support, the WC has managed to drop the unemployment rate in the province to around 20%. To international readers, this may seem high but compared to the national 32% its pretty damn good. 

https://www.statssa.gov.za/publications/P0211/P02114thQuarter2023.pdf

South Africa - Inflation

Its a major problem. Particularly if you live in the Western Cape where the percentage is often higher than the rest of the country. Hopefully employers take this into account when calculating increases. Often they will not and will focus on the national average. 

https://lrs.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Inflation-Monitor-February-2024.pdf

Inhumane Rights Day in Mzansi

South Africa commemorates Human Rights Day today, March 21. The day in 1960 when police opened fired on protesters in Sharpeville killing 69 people. The event was a major turning point in black South Africa's struggle for equality. Some 64 years later we sit, here in a sweltering and calm Cape Town, and ponder on the meaning of the day. For me, and I imagine for many normal South Africans, the memory of the 'dark old days' has faded and been replaced with more pressing issues. 

We have a government, a black-dominated government, which continues to fail us all. The list of its scandals has become a popular meme on South Africa's social media.

How is it that this ANC government has managed to ... excuse the French ... screw over so many people. And even after a massive State Capture Commission which fingered so many cadres in dodgy deals, do we still have a near zero conviction rate? Indeed, despite the ANC's own 'step aside' rule, the ANC's May 29 election list includes scores of persons implicated in graft. 

South Africans will face a test on May 29. Will they vote to keep the corrupted in play or will they choose a new path. Either a centrist liberal DA or perhaps a radical leftist MK or EFF. Time will tell and hopefully, registered voters will make the right choice.

South Africa - Water, Where Art Thou?

 Water. What would we be without it? Securing clean water for consumption and commercial activities is critical for the health and economy of a nation. So why is South Africa failing?

The Department of Water and Sanitation's latest Blue Drop Report provides a startling warning of what the state needs to do to ensure that safe drinking water is available for all the people of South Africa. 

The outcomes of the report paint a grim picture, particularly for those living outside of the major metros. Rural and small town South Africa have been neglected over the past 10 years with unsafe drinking water posing a direct risk. In addition, many municipalities have failed to even communicate to residents when water quality dips. This goes beyond negligence. 

In what is a cruel twist of fate, the DWS has recently signed an agreement with... ZIMBABWE...to pump treated water to Musina, Limpopo, which has been struggling with water shortages. How far South Africa has fallen.

https://www.sanews.gov.za/south-africa/south-africa-and-zimbabwe-enter-landmark-water-sharing-deal

Nigeria's Troubled North

Conflicts define humanity to a degree. No age goes without some major catastrophe that sees blood letting that shocks the senses. Gaza is one. This week the UN warned of a potential famine in northern Gaza due to food shortages caused by the ongoing delay in food aid to the besieged territory. 

In a no less shocking development, a new Human Rights Watch report has shone the light on insecurity in Nigeria. Criminal bands continue to ravage central and northern parts of the country in an ongoing campaign of conflict over scarce resources enflamed by religious and ethnic hatred. The Islamist extremist group, Boko Haram, kidnapped approximately 200 school children in Ngala Local Government Area of Borno State in late February. On March 7, bandits kidnapped 287 schoolchildren in Kaduna State. Another 15 were kidnapped in Sokoto State on March 9. The motive? Ransom most likely. A demand has been reported by bandits related to the Kaduna issue. For the militants, the motive could be financial, religious or practical. Children make good recruits or servants. 

Nigeria's security problems run deep and are one of several plaguing the Sahel region. Coups, insurgencies, communal violence, and foreign interference mesh with conflict over resources to produce a volatile and violent playground. Little to no protests or international attention on these battles. TIA. 

HRW report https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/03/18/armed-groups-kidnap-hundreds-across-northern-nigeria

SA Elections - GGA Report - Western Cape takes the lead

 The latest Good Governance Africa report is out https://gga.org/governance-performance-index-south-africa-2024/ and no surprises where the best run regions are. The DA-run Western Cape dominates with some outliers in ANC-controlled locations. The bulk of poor performing regions are ANC-run. Trust the data.

South Africa Elections - May 29

 Over the past two weeks, I've shared various data points about governance, performance and service delivery. The picture I have painted shows, clearly, that areas where the Democratic Alliance (DA) governs, it governs well. Cape Town and the Western Cape have had DA-led governments for over two terms allowing the party to build and establish excellent governance records. Similiar building efforts are underway in Tshwane. Given the opportunity and time, the DA is the most likely to move South Africa forward in terms of several metrics including:

Good governance
Financial responsibility
Service delivery
Economic development
Education
Waste Removal
Electricity 

And much much more. Love or hate them, they've done the job. Isn't it time to stop voting for the African National Congress (ANC) or some other half-witted, two-person party that pops up and lean on the DA for a while? The answer is obvious if you care about the data.

SA Elections - Race

Black Twitter jumps on 'white racism' regularly while conveniently overlooking significant black racism. If a referendum came out today asking blacks to vote on whether to curtail the rights of whites, what would the result be?

In the early 1990s, the ruling white NP asked white South Africans to vote in a referendum which essentially, if passed, would lead to the end of Apartheid ie the end of white South Africa's privileged position. Thankfully, the majority voted YES. Notice the Cape's overwhelming response. This is telling and speaks to the region's incredibly liberal outlook compared to the Afrikaner nationalism that has deep roots in the north, inland part of the country.