South Africa - Elections - Haggling for Cabinet Posts

 The ANC and DA continue to haggle over cabinet posts four weeks after the national election. The process has been slow going with offers and counter-offers, some leaked, some secret, flying back and forth between the two parties. As the party with the most seats and the former ruling party, the ANC is keen to maintain its dominant position. As such, it will seek to gain as much from the talks and leverage its position as much as possible. For the DA, it will continue to ask for more and likely already have a figure of cabinet posts in mind for what it would be happy to finish with. 

This remains unchartered territory for South Africa. Local government coalition talks are one things. Control of cabinet positions with actual national power is a completely different animal. The DA and ANC will need to tread carefully. Any fracturing of this very new 'agreement' will have consequences for both down the line and for certain personalities. President Cyril Ramaphosa, recently sworn in for a second term with the backing of the DA, will have one eye on the vultures in his own party and without - chief among them the EFF and MK - who want him gone. He enjoys majority internal support for now but if a deal is struck that a majority of the ANC leadership are opposed to or if he is seen as bowing to DA pressure, he could be on the way out.

This probably goes someway to explaining the media handbags this past week. Leaked letters and posturing are likely part of the game. The DA, knowing what is at stake for Cyril, possibly leaked the document to put pressure on the ANC and provide Cyril with some ammunition to fire back. The DA's initial ask of 11 posts are likely entirely inflated, and they will probably settle on 6, thus giving Ramaphosa a 'win' inside his own party and some additional wiggle room to survive till Christmas. If Cyril goes, the DA know that the deal and GNU are done. Whoever comes in next - probably Mashatile - will pick up with the MK and then, who knows. 

The DA Fed met last night, and no doubt the ANC bigwigs are also still debating. Let's see what the weekend talks bring. Hopefully, by Monday, there is some positive indication that we are closer to a deal. If that happens step 2 will have been completed. With many, many more steps to come.