Trouble in Kenya

 President Ruto came to power in 2022 on the back of a pro-poor campaign. Now, in 2024, he is under immense pressure as protests against his rule have reached an all-time peak.

The trigger for the latest round of civil unrest in Kenya has been a contentious Finance Bill. The bill would've led to higher taxes for a population that was already suffering under the weight of a cost of living crisis and a broken economy with the usual splattering of government elite corruption and excess. Activists and opposition groups rioted in Nairobi and dozens of other cities in late June culminating in the storming of Parliament. The unrest, which continues to simmer, has left 39 people dead. 

Ruto, for his part, acted swiftly, refusing to sign the bill into power, sacking his entire cabinet, and opening up social media dialogue with 'the people'. This hasn't assuaged the anger of the street and protests have continued. It appears a new mental barrier has been crossed, a new reality has been created one in which, for many people, Ruto does not feature. The president's time is almost up.

Whether he makes it to 2027 is anyone's guess of course. The protests could splutter and fade but the sense is, this time its different. "Its the economy, stupid" rings true as much in Africa as it does in the US. Without a drastic turnaround, the pressure on the ruling elite will only increase. Persistent instability is likely to follow.

South Africa - Elections - Haggling for Cabinet Posts

 The ANC and DA continue to haggle over cabinet posts four weeks after the national election. The process has been slow going with offers and counter-offers, some leaked, some secret, flying back and forth between the two parties. As the party with the most seats and the former ruling party, the ANC is keen to maintain its dominant position. As such, it will seek to gain as much from the talks and leverage its position as much as possible. For the DA, it will continue to ask for more and likely already have a figure of cabinet posts in mind for what it would be happy to finish with. 

This remains unchartered territory for South Africa. Local government coalition talks are one things. Control of cabinet positions with actual national power is a completely different animal. The DA and ANC will need to tread carefully. Any fracturing of this very new 'agreement' will have consequences for both down the line and for certain personalities. President Cyril Ramaphosa, recently sworn in for a second term with the backing of the DA, will have one eye on the vultures in his own party and without - chief among them the EFF and MK - who want him gone. He enjoys majority internal support for now but if a deal is struck that a majority of the ANC leadership are opposed to or if he is seen as bowing to DA pressure, he could be on the way out.

This probably goes someway to explaining the media handbags this past week. Leaked letters and posturing are likely part of the game. The DA, knowing what is at stake for Cyril, possibly leaked the document to put pressure on the ANC and provide Cyril with some ammunition to fire back. The DA's initial ask of 11 posts are likely entirely inflated, and they will probably settle on 6, thus giving Ramaphosa a 'win' inside his own party and some additional wiggle room to survive till Christmas. If Cyril goes, the DA know that the deal and GNU are done. Whoever comes in next - probably Mashatile - will pick up with the MK and then, who knows. 

The DA Fed met last night, and no doubt the ANC bigwigs are also still debating. Let's see what the weekend talks bring. Hopefully, by Monday, there is some positive indication that we are closer to a deal. If that happens step 2 will have been completed. With many, many more steps to come.

Post-election coalition talks in South Africa

 South Africa enters a new phase post-May 29. With election results out and no clear winner arch enemies will be required to work together to govern. Socialists, centrists, tribalists, populists and liberals. All together for the 'Rainbow Nation'. 

Coalition talks are underway and the early guesses are is that we'll get:

DA supporting the ANC minority government.

DA and IFP support the ANC minority government.

(Both in return for concessions - policy and positions).

DA IFP ANC government of national unity. 

The MK - which wants the CR faction gone in ANC for a deal and EFF - which is radical - are unlikely to crack the nod. 

Grab the popcorn folks.

Vote ANC. You are the problem.

 If you vote ANC on May 29. You are the problem.

SA: The election precipice

 South Africa is nine days away from a historic and defining election. Over the course of its history, the country has, at different times, been dominated by one force over the other: the British, the Afrikaner nationalists, and now the Black nationalists. For the first time, democratic and peaceful means may lead to a new order—an order of coalitions, differing worldviews, and ideologies, and one that could redefine the country.

Latest polling suggests that the ANC could receive around 45% of the vote with the DA in second at around the 25% mark. The impact of load shedding, economic and municipal mismanagement, and, quite frankly, bizarre socialist policies have come home to roost for the ANC. So, what lies ahead if this result plays out. The DA and its partners in the Multi-Party Charter are unlikely to breach the 50+1 mark. Leaving the formation of a government up to the ANC. Its relationship with the MK and EFF (in third and fourth place) is shaky. Its former leader, Zuma, recently banned from standing in Parliament, has an awkward relationship with about half the party. The EFF’s Julius Malema is an unpredictable player and a strong ANC critic. However, the right financial and power incentives could sway him to join.

It is likely that the ANC will seek out a smaller partner or smaller partners. Ones that it can control. Lining up is the colored nationalist PA, the Afrikaner nationalist FF+, or Islamist Al-Jamaah. However, if the ANC achieves 45 or less, it may still need more partners. The potential for an agreement (not coalition) with the DA exists. The DA could demand certain policy guarantees from the ANC in exchange for a vote for the deputy speaker, speaker and president.

The two weeks following the election will be critical. Negotiations will occur, and decisions will be made. If none are made, and in the extreme case, the ANC could call for fresh elections. This seems possible but unlikely.

Another factor to consider is that should the ANC not be able to reach a stable governing coalition, Cyril Ramaphosa could be recalled by the party. It’s been done before. This could usher in the likes of Paul Mashatile, the current Deputy President.

Whichever way you look at it, drama is likely to come in early June.

The True Size of Countries

 

Inequality in South Africa? Which Province fares best?

 Well, you decide.

https://www.westerncape.gov.za/provincial-treasury/sites/provincial-treasury.westerncape.gov.za/files/atoms/files/Western%20Cape%20Overview%20of%20Provincial%20Revenue%20and%20Expenditure%202023.pdf