Egypt's struggle with militancy

Egypt has experienced a spike in acts of urban terrorism in 2015. Cairo and Alexandria have been particularly affected, with low-level attacks reported on a near-daily basis. Cities elsewhere in the country, notably in the Nile Delta, have experienced attacks on a weekly basis. The majority of these incidents have targeted state facilities and personnel, including police stations, checkpoints and soldiers, as well as infrastructure, including electricity provision sites and, more recently, businesses. These incidents have left dozens of people dead or wounded; however, average casualty figures per attack have been very low, largely due to the crude nature of most of the assaults. Reported casualties have predominantly been state employees, although civilian bystanders have occasionally been affected.

Read the rest here --> https://www.red24.com/members/intelligence/newsletters_security_briefings/egypt_struggle_militancy_11032015.php

Can UN-led Talks Bring Together a Fractured Libya?

An old article posted on the Global Observatory website. An excerpt: 

"A new round of peace talks between Libya's competing factions is taking place this week in Geneva, hosted by the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL). This is the second round of talks in the Swiss city this month after an initial meeting on January 14, and the Geneva process follows largely unproductive talks in Libya's northwestern border town of Ghadames in September 2014. For now, representatives of one of the two competing parliaments in the country—the Islamist-dominated General National Congress (GNC)—have declined to join any talks outside of Libya. Nonetheless, UNSMIL has stated that a future round of negotiations is expected in Libya at some point, which would include the GNC. There are also indications that pressure from the European Union, a major trading partner of Libya and end destination of Libyan oil, and the GNC's primary international supporters, Turkey and Qatar, could lead the GNC to send a delegation to talks abroad in the near future."

For the full article visit this link http://theglobalobservatory.org/2015/01/un-talks-fractured-libya-dialogue/

Hezbollah-Israel Skirmish: A Brewing Conflict or Political Stagecraft?

An article I wrote for the Global Obaservatory. An excerpt:

"Hezbollah fighters ambushed an Israel Defense Force (IDF) convoy in the disputed Shebaa Farms area near the Golan Heights on January 28. The attack left two IDF soldiers dead and seven others wounded. During the subsequent skirmish in the area, a United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeeper stationed in the Ghajar area was also hit and later died. The violence followed a period of heightened tensions in the region following an Israeli air strike against a Hezbollah and Iranian military convoy in Syria's southern Quneitra governorate on January 18 and subsequent threats by senior Hezbollah and Iranian officials to retaliate against Israel. Tensions escalated further on January 27 when the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) artillery position in response to a rocket attack from Syria into Israel-controlled territory in the Golan Heights earlier in the day."

For the full article visit http://theglobalobservatory.org/2015/02/hezbollah-israel-border-skirmish-standoff/

Sisi’s Military Maintains Power in a Fragmented Egypt

My latest article for the Global Observatory. An excerpt:

"Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has a clear political philosophy. He wants to strengthen the state and eliminate its opponents. For many Egyptians, this openly nationalistic rhetoric is welcome. Political contestation and associated civil unrest, the threat of terrorism, and a severe economic downturn have severely affected the Egyptian polity in recent years and increased the public's demand for leadership capable of meeting the country's multifaceted challenges. This basic dynamic of modern day Egypt is portrayed regularly through state-run, and some foreign, media outlets. Yet if one delves deeper, there is clearly more at play."

For the full article, visit http://theglobalobservatory.org/2015/02/sisi-military-power-egypt/

Mexico - Kidnapping statistics

Can UN-led Talks Bring Together a Fractured Libya?

I recently wrote a piece for the Global Observatory. Check it out here.

http://theglobalobservatory.org/2015/01/un-talks-fractured-libya-dialogue/

Hezbollah and Israel - Winds of War?

Hezbollah knocked out an Israeli military vehicle in the disputed Shebaa Farms area earlier today. Lebanese media have stated that four Israeli soldiers were killed in the assault while Israeli media have reported seven wounded. The incident is the latest in a number of cross border attacks sparked by the 18 January Israeli drone strike against a Hezbollah/IRGC convoy in southern Syria which killed a number of Hezbollah operatives and a senior IRGC official. The fall out of the attack has been significant with senior members of both parties calling for retaliatory attacks.

Tensions are, without doubt, elevated; however, there are certain issues which mitigate against the likelihood of a wider confrontation at present. Hezbollah are battling Sunni rebels in Syria on the side of the Syrian regime and Israel is preparing for a national election in March. Both sides are keen to avoid a full confrontation but are aware that not responding will lead them to lose prestige and, importantly, legitimacy among their respective constituencies. At present the confrontations have occurred in disputed territories and not been sustained. Should fighting persist and casualty numbers continue to rise both sides may assess that an escalation is required. If they do, we will begin to see troop movements in southern Lebanon as Hezbollah deploy or redeploy forces and a partial or full mobilisation of reserves in Israel. 

Over the longer term a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah seems almost certain given the lack of dialogue between the two and their polar opposite ideological positions. In terms of assessing when this could occur, the best guess is that it may happen after the March elections when the new prime minister would have a fresh mandate. For Hezbollah, they'd want to neutralise the Sunni Jihadist threat in the Bekaa governorate and obtain the green light from Iran and Syria to withdraw forces from Syria before it would look south towards its traditional enemy.