US Navel deployment

Stratfor's incredibly useful US Naval deployment has been released once again. Of particular interest, the US draw down in the Persian Gulf is noticeable. USS Dwight D. Eisenhower CSG with Carrier Air Wing 7 is underway in the gulf while the USS John C. Stennis CSG with Carrier Air Wing 9 is in the Indo-Asian Pacific region conducting exercises. At least eight other carrier groups and six big deck amphibious warfare ships are currently in their home ports.

Battle for the Levant

The conflict in Syria remains a primary regional security concern in the Levant. The fighting, which has raged since March 2011, has left over 70,000 people dead and displaced over two million. Rebels currently control approximately half of the country but critically the regime maintains control of the capital and towns and cities along the Mediterranean coast. The prospects of a decisive battle remain slim and the war is likely to persist for the next year at least. Syria maintains the support of Russia, China and Iran, countries which continue to resupply the regime's military and offer it political cover at the United Nations. The rebels meanwhile are facing an internal battle of their own. Dissent among the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCSROF) is at an all-time high and the disparate groupings which comprise the coalition find it difficult to agree on the time of day. This weakness is reflected further on the battlefield where Islamist fighters, technically aligned to the Free Syrian Army (FSA), act largely independent of it. These battalions are viewed as highly disciplined and are well-armed. Indeed, in many recent major battles groups like the al-Nusra Front have taken the lead in confrontations with the regime. Despite these weaknesses the rebels are gaining the ascendancy, albeit slowly, and the prospects for regime survival are low. Over the next year I fully expect the rebels to push into regime strongholds and for the Assad regime to begin to crumble. As the government seeks to protect its ruling minority Alawite sect a displacement of pro-government forces is likely to the north west coast line. Don't be surprised if these forces declare a separate state in this region while the largely majority Sunni rebels fight over the remainder of the country. 

Yemen - Critical upcoming National Dialogue Conference on 18 March

On 6 February, Yemen President Abdul Rabu Mansoor Hadi announced that a National Dialogue Conference will be held on 18 March. The anticipated start of the much delayed dialogue is expected to usher in a period of normalization of ties between the country's disparate opposition groups through the creation of a civil state and stronger governing institutions. A new constitution is also expected to be drafted. Following the dialogue there are hopes that conditions will be created wherein Yemen can organise fresh election in 2014. Getting all of the relevant parties to participate in the talks would be a major success. Currently, all major groups, excluding the Islamist militant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are expected to participate; however, given the highly contentious nature of Yemen politics currently the withdrawal of one or more of the major players prior to or during the talks remains a distinct possibility.

The two most significant players in the forthcoming dialogue, Hirak and the Houthis, hold the key to a successful dialogue. Hirak, a loose coalition of southern activist and opposition groups, is pushing for greater political power in the south. The group itself is split between those that want a federal system and those that want full secession. The group has issued several provocative statements in recent days and its members have attacked government and pro-government facilities and personnel across the south. Its members have also been implicated in attacks on the Islamist Islah party. Hirak accuses Islah, the primary player in the opposition Joint Meeting Parties opposition movement, of attacking its members during a pro-secession demonstration in Aden in February.  The Houthis are a well-armed Shiite grouping in northern Yemen, which have been battling the central government and its allies since 2004. The group currently holds much of Saada governorate and holds strong influence in the neighbouring governorates of Amran, Hajja and al-Jawf. Should the Houthis or Hirak (or parts of it) decide not to participate in the dialogue, the implications for the country could be disastrous and a return to conflict (or full scale civil war) becomes a distinct possibility.

Syria's endless cycle of violence

The rebellion in Syria, which can now technically be described as a civil war, continues to rage. End game scenarios are difficult to predict; however, what is clear is the that rebellion has grown and that fighting is impacting on much of the country, including the state's two primary urban areas, Damascus and Aleppo. Below is a recently updated video of Syrian rebels shelling (seemingly at will) the Damascus International Airport using medium range mortars. Rebels have also infiltrated the capital and carried out a number of devastating bombings. The video below shows a car bomb in Damascus on Christmas Day. With the appetite for war so strong still in Syria one senses that this is a war that could last a very long time. Even if Assad is removed somehow, the consequences of 45,000 dead on the national psyche will be hard to erase and the prospect of endless bloodshed fueled by political, ethnic and religious hatred grows more likely.

Extremists and politics in Iraq

Iraq is making progress against Islamist extremism. Or is it? A tally by AFP found that 139 people were killed in terrorism-related attacks in December. This is the second lowest tally for 2012 surpassing October's low of 136 by a small margin. The signs are positive, at least if you count the body bags, that the war on terrorism being led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is working. The Iraqi government has at its disposal nearly a million men under arms, including police and military units. Bolstered by US aid and increasing oil revenues the ability of the security branch to contain the insurgency is likely to improve IF the Iraqi government can hold things together. Nothing breeds instability quite like chaos at the highest levels of state.

Maliki is facing a stern challenge at the moment from Sunnis. Over the past fortnight Iraq's Sunni-dominated governorates of Anbar, Salah ad-Din and Ninawa have been restive. Near daily protests against the arrest of Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh Al-Mutlak's staff on terrorism charges have been reported in these regions. The temptation here is to argue that sectarian tensions are boiling over. Maliki is Shiite, the protesters are Sunni. Simple? Not so simple. The protesters are also being supported by firebrand cleric Moqtadr al-Sadr, a Shiite. His opposition to the al-Maliki regime has bordered on the manic at times and one senses that the opposition is more to do with al-Maliki than with some dark sectarian agenda. However, the danger lies in the propagation of this sectarianism. If political crises such as these are not handled quickly they can easily escalate into violence. And if this happens, all scenarios become viable, including sectarian war.

While official tallies are good indicators or an insurgency's state or the ability of the security branch they do not necessarily reflect an end to the threat. Political chaos nearly always breeds conflict in states where disunity is rife and weapons widely available. Should the Iraqi politicians not work out a plan to stabilises their relations groups like the Islamic State of Iraq are likely to fill the void.

The weekly wrap up

This past week has been quite interesting in the Middle East. In Lebanon, a car bomb was detonated in the Asrafiyah area of the city on Friday. The explosion killed eight people including a major security force official, Wissam Hasan. The attack also occurred in a Christian area of the city but this was less important than the primary victim who had close ties to the Sunni Muslim opposition, specifically Rafik Hariri, a Sunni Muslim and former prime minister who was killed in similar circumstances in 2005. The assassination touched off gunfights between Sunni and Shiite/Alawite Muslim gunmen across the country, including in southern Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon. In Iraq, Baghdad has slipped under the radar; however, shooting and bomb attacks on Saturday and today (23 Oct) have left over two dozen people dead. Much of the same you may say, but the government prides itself on its security in the capital and these incidents will undermine popular confidence in the police and the government. The region will also host a number of anniversaries and religious events in the coming days. Today is Liberation Day in Libya. It’s been a year since Libya was officially ‘liberated’ by the rebel NTC but it seems the country’s problems are just beginning with militia’s running riot and assassinations a near daily occurrence. The big event of course will be in Saudi Arabia this Wednesday when the number of Hajj pilgrims will peak at two million. Pilgrims will flood into Mecca, Medina and Mina placing heavy strain on public transport and the security forces. Other areas of interest are Yemen, where the Southern Movement has reportedly agreed to join the National Dialogue meeting scheduled for November, and Syria which remains in the throes of a seemingly endless and bloody civil war.

Summing up my recent distractions

It has been a while since my last blog entry and that is because the Middle East has been keeping us at red24 pretty busy. From Libya to Iran there are fears and concerns that revolutions are failing and that war is imminent. Libya is a particularly problematic country at the moment. The government is still struggling to finalise a cabinet and Islamist militias are making life difficult for the government in the east. In Egypt, President Mursi is facing strong opposition from secularists. On Friday clashes were reported between protesters denouncing Mursi's government and Muslim Brotherhood protesters. The unrest is unlikely to be the last as Egypt is in the final stages of finishing a constitution. The biggy in the region has to be the threat of war between Iran and Israel. Who knows where this fight is going? We've worked on a security brief on the issue at red24. You can access it here . One pretty cool thing I've read lately is a book called 'Son of Hamas' Its a biography written by and about Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of a founding members of Hamas who turned to Christ during his 20s. If that wasn't shocking enough he also spied on Hamas for Shin Bet, the Israeli intelligence agency. Obviously, his Muslim family have denounced him and he has fled to the US. He is currently based in California and attends the Barrabas Road Church. For anyone trying to understand the Palestinian Israeli conflict this is a must read. Ok, well hopefully I won't take too long next time to post something, keep well!