Tel Aviv "terror" - Ramming attacks in Israel (JPost)

Background: Ramming terror attacks in recent years

By JPOST.COM STAFF, YAAKOV LAPPIN, ETGAR LEFKOVIT

08/29/2011 05:04

http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=235810

South Tel Aviv attack is 5th of its kind in past three years, including "Nakba Day" attack, "Jerusalem bulldozer attacks." Seven people were injured in south Tel Aviv early Monday morning, after a terrorist from the West Bank carjacked a taxi and rammed it into a police road block protecting a Tel Aviv nightclub, before going on a stabbing spree. Monday's attack comes after a similar attack in May on Nakba Day when a young truck driver from the Arab town of Kafr Kasim caused terrifying destruction in south Tel Aviv after ramming his truck into several vehicles on Bar-Lev Street, in what police suspected to be a “lonewolf terror attack” that killed one man and injured 17 others. The 20-ton Volvo truck, driven by the 22-year-old man, departed Kafr Kasim on the morning of the attack and entered Tel Aviv via Route 4, driving through the Mesubim Junction. As the driver approached the Hatikva neighborhood, he struck and ran over several cars. The truck driver continued on, smashing into a black jeep, a white Fiat car, flattening a road sign, and striking other vehicles, before suddenly swerving into the opposite lane, running over a moped – seconds after its driver leapt off – then finally smashing sideways into an Egged bus, that just dropped off its last passenger.

The attacks are also reminiscent of the so-called "Jerusalem bulldozer attacks" three years ago that started on July 2 2008 when terrorist Husam Taysir Dwayat carried out a lethal bulldozer rampage on Jaffa Road which killed three people and wounded dozens before he was killed. Three weeks later, tractor driver Ghassan Abu Tir, a 22-year-old resident of the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Umm Tuba who was working on a construction project on a side street near the King David Hotel, pulled into King David Street and repeatedly crashed his vehicle into a No. 13 Egged bus, which managed to escape, and then rammed into five cars, one of which he overturned, before being shot dead by a motorist who happened by the scene. 15 people were wounded in the attack. Two months later, east Jerusalem resident Kasem Mugrabi drove his BMW into a a crowd in Jerusalem's Tzahal Sqare near the Old City. 17 people were wounded, most of them soldiers, before he was shot dead by an IDF officer.

Fasting ends - protests set to begin

Ramadan comes to a close on Tue/Wed. There are growing expectations that anti-government protests will re-escalate in many areas of the Middle East and North Africa as Muslims can re-energise during the day. But exactly where will the unrest kickoff? Syria, Bahrain and Yemen have experienced relatively stable and high levels of protests during Ramadan and in many other areas, such as Jordan, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Iraq the political situation has normalised following government action. Of particular interest will be Egypt. Many of its movements openly suspended Ramadan protesting. It is highly likely that these group will restart later this week, possibly as early as Friday. Start your engines.

The Night of Power

Muslims across the world will commemorate the Night of Power or Laylat al-Qadr tonight. It is widely beleived that this is the night that the Angel Gabriel revealed the Holy Quran to the Prophet Muhammad. The Quran purportedly states that the night is better than a thousand months. For fundamentalists and extremists the occassion is (incorrectly) believed to increase the browny points you receive in the after life if you martyr yourself. Keep an eye on Middle Eastern states and US Embassies tonight.

The wild west: loyalists continue to battle the rebels in Libya

Tripoli remains in the grip of fighting between loyalists and rebels. While gains have been made the continued fighting speaks to the significant support al-Gaddafi still has, particularly in Tripoli. The support has also been revealed as coming from locals and .. foreign mercenaries. The discovery of 30 bodies, clearly African, has highlighted the role these mercenaries have played in the battle for Libya. One wonders how many more of these fighters remain in the country.

On the diplomatic front the rebel NTC have stated that they plan to relocate to Tripoli shortly while the US has announced that $1.5 billion will be released to fund humanitarian operations in Libya. The rebels are certainly on the front foot and will look to capture or kill Gaddafi as soon as possible, so that the shadow of 40 years of dictatorship can finally be eradicated. However, even if they were to capture the tyrant and eradicate his loyalist and mercenary force questions still need to be answered as to whether the NTC can unify the diverse rebel factions and include the power tribes in the interim government.

Just the beginning

It may appear that Arab Spring 2011 is coming to a restless end; however, there are a number of factors that lead me to think that this is just the beginning.

1. Ramadan - the holy month is coming to an end. More people will be available to protest shortly.

2. Goals - Regime change has only occurred (sort of) in one country -> Libya. The goals of protesters are yet to be fully met in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Yemen etc.

3. Social inequality - The primary driver of the unrest in the Middle East in 2011 was social inequality - poverty, unemployment, a growing gap between rich and poor. These macro social and economic problems are grinding ahead unabated. As more people become poor, they will become angrier and begin to vent.

4. Israeli/Palestinian conflict - This issue has played in the background for a while. If the UN vote in September fails to recognise the Palestinian state, trouble could brew, particularly for states close to Israel (Jordan) and the US (Egypt, Saudi, Gulf states), which is expected to veto the Palestinian application for statehood.

So there you have it. I certainly expect trouble to continue to brew in the region through 2012 and probably beyond. Solutions are few and far between at the moment.

The rebel gamble - brazen assault in Tripoli

A major rebel gamble has begun in Libya's capital, Tripoli. Overnight fighting was reported across the city as rebel supporters skirmished with forces loyal to the regime. While information still remains sketchy it is believed that the rebels are focusing their attention on the Tajoura neighborhood and the Matiga airport. Rebels claim to have infiltrated the city on Friday via tugboats, resupplying their supporters in Tripoli. At this stage the regime are remaining defiant claiming to have, in Gaddafi's words, eliminated the 'rats'. Again this piece of information can not be verified. What is verifiable is that fighting is ongoing and their are a high number of casualties. The crucial question at this juncture is 1. Does Gaddafi maintain significant support in Tripoli to quash the latest uprising. 2. Can the rebels capture or kill Gaddafi before their supply of ammunition is depleted. A large number of Gaddafi forces remain outside of the capital. Should these forces turn back to the capital, the rebel mini-offensive could be under threat...however, even if additional forces were to be moved from the front line, Gaddafi would lose significant territory as rebels are likely to push against any weakened areas. We continue to watch with interest.

War edges closer to the Levant

(Pictured: Al-Qassam Brigades member - the group withdrew from a 2009 ceasefire with Israel, on 19 August)

The probability of a full scale conflict between Hamas and Israel is becoming an increasingly likely scenario as tensions continue to escalate between the two sides. Following Thursday's militant attacks near Eilat, the Israeli government took the knee-jerk reaction of blaming 'Gazans' (ie Hamas) for the attack, without considering the possibility that a third party, operating independently of Islamist/Palestinian extremist networks in the Gaza Strip (ie in the Sinai), may have orchestrated the worst terrorist incident in Israel since 2008. Israeli intelligence and logic aside, the IAF has since been given the green light to target militant positions, particularly those of the Palestinian Resistance Committee (PRC), in the Gaza area. Since operations began on Thursday night at least 30 people have been killed in IAF strikes, including the head of the PRC. Hamas targets have also been destroyed, which in turn has resulted in Hamas and its armed wing, the al-Qassam Brigades suspending a long standing ceasefire with Israel, which was in place since 2009.

The situation as of Saturday night has become dire. Hamas rockets are raining down on southern Israel, some as far as 40km from the Strip. At least one projectile struck the Southern District capital, Beersheba, on Saturday evening killing one man. This rocket barrage, Hamas' lifting of the ceasefire and the traditional response of the IDF/IAF to militant attacks is likely to result in a further escalation without an immediate intervention from one if not all members of the Quartet. Inside the Middle East will be watching developments closely through the weekend for signs of further escalation, such as an IDF cross border raid, Hamas terror attack in Israel or high level rocket barrage from the Gaza area. We will also be watching the reaction of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. If the war escalates may they consider entering the fray? Trying times ahead indeed.