Obama's Iraq conundrum

The recent declaration by Barak Obama that the US was ceasing military operations on 31 August and was on schedule for a full withdrawal by July 2011 came as a mild surprise to many. Although the announcement was expected the decision smacks of political and not military considerations. Iraq remains a mess and is on the verge of civil war. Sunni extremist attacks continue across much of the country on a daily basis and while the Iraqi security forces have been equipped and ‘trained’, they pose more of a risk to the country’s cash flow and civilian wallets than to the insurgents and militias. The country is in essence a dry stack of grass ready to explode. Added to the woe is Iran, a nuclear ambitious theocracy hell bent on pursuing nuclear technology and weapons (yes weapons, even though they proclaim they only want nuclear power for the cold huddled masses). If the US and EU continue to pressure Iran as expected Iran’s influence over Iraqi affairs will be clearly shown. The country’s government has already been implicated in weapons smuggling to its allies in Iraq and pursuing a policy of interference and establishing proxy militias to destabilise the country is a fairly simple matter. Yet what other options does this US currently have stymied as they are by an administration that is keen on retreat? Not many. To be fair Obama is in a tough position. The Iraqis don’t want the Americans, the Iranian don’t want them, the Americans don’t want to be there. But like any parent knows, sometimes you need to make unpopular decisions. Leadership is about taking bold steps even if it means sacrifice. A draw down of troops does not seem to be a logical military solution; however, like Vietnam in an era past there doesn’t seem to be any good options available.

AQIM ambush Algerian security force patrol

Algerian militants believed to be alligned to the AQIM attacked a paramilitary patrol in the southern reaches of Algeria's vast Saharan desert yesterday. The attack is unusual as AQIM militants have conducted the vast majority of their terrorist aggression in the mountainous north of the country where they are afforded a greater deal of cover. The south of the country has usually been AQIM's centre of smuggling and kidnapping operations which finance their military ventures further north. Military operations in these theatre against the well-armed and aerial capable Algerian army are not logical options. The reasons for the attack are therefore slightly unclear. Why would they attack a well-armed convoy in the middle of nowhere? There are two possible scenarios/reasons. The first is chance. The AQIM militants may well have stumbled upon the convoy during their everyday operations in the south and had no option but to engage the convoy. The second is that the AQIM were attempting to send a message to the Algerian government. In April, the Algerian government established a joint anti-terrorism unit in the southern town of Tamnarraset to curb the growing risk of AQIM militancy in the wider Saharan region. The well-publicised opening of the unit would have been received by the AQIM. This attack may well be a first indication that the group, starved of alternatives, may be sending a clear message, "we will not move". Whatever the reasons, the attack is not likely to be the last. AQIM have a now established presence in the central Sahara and are taking advantage of lucrative criminal enterprises in this theatre. They will not want to lose this.

Attacks in southern Yemen AQAP or ?

Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) issued a statement last Friday threatening reprisal attacks against the Yemeni regime due to the government's recent operations against the group in the Marib governorate. True to form attacks against two military facilities in southern Yemen on 19 and 21 June left at least 11 people dead were reported in Aden and Zinjibar. The attacks against the intelligence service and a military command centre respectively were clear indications of the groups reach...or was it? The most recent fighting between AQAP and the Yemeni security forces has focused in Marib. Why then attack seemingly random targets in southern Yemen when there are hundreds of potential targets closer to home? There have been growing rumours of a Southern Movement, SM, (southern separatist group) militant wing operating in the south of the country and the most recent attacks could well have been orchestrated by the group, imaginatively coined, the Southern Resistance Brigades. Attacks against police checkpoints and military personnel in southern Yemen have increased recently and most have not been linked to AQAP. It could well be that the recent attacks and the scale of the operations have led the security forces to guess that it was AQAP. They have, after all, a long history of well planned and coordinated attacks in the country. However, the area of the attacks raises a large question mark. Could the SM be moving towards all out civil war? Mecasr has a sense that we may find out sooner rather than later.

Mecasr Factbox - Kidnappings in the Sahara 2008 - present

Kidnappings of foreigners, particularly Westerners continues to be a growing problem in the Sahara region. Below are some of the most recent reported cases.

On 22 April 2010, a French national and an Algerian national were kidnapped by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) militants near Inabangaret (near Arlit) in northern Niger. The driver was released shortly afterwards.

On 18 December 2009 an Italian couple were kidnapped by AQIM in south eastern Mauritania 18 km east of Kobonni on the road to Mali. AQIM demanded the release of jailed comrades in Mauritania. The couple were released in Mali in April 2010.

On 29 November 2009 three Spanish nationals were kidnapped by AQIM whilst travelling on the road from Nouakchott, the capital of Mauritania, to the northern city of Nouadhibou. They were taken to Mali. A large ransom demand has been made.

On 28 November 2009, a group of armed men attacked six Saudi tourists and their two Malian guides near the Mali-Niger border in the Tillaberi region, in what is believed to have been a botched kidnapping attempt. Three of the Saudi nationals were killed and a fourth later died of his wounds. The remaining tourists were wounded and later recovered by the security forces; the two guides were released unharmed. The group was en route to the Gao region of Mali. There have been no claims of responsibility for the attack.

On 25 November 2009, a French national was kidnapped by gunmen in the north eastern town of Menaka, Goa region, Mali. The abduction was claimed by AQIM in early December 2009. Pierre Camatte was released on 23 February following a prisoner swap.

On 14 November 2009, unidentified gunmen attempted to kidnap US embassy personnel in Tahoua, Niger. The identity of the attackers remains unknown.

On 22 January 2009, four European nationals (two Swiss, a Briton and a German) were kidnapped by Tuareg rebels along the Niger-Mali border and then sold to AQIM militants. The group was abducted near Bani Bangou after returning to Niger from a festival of nomad culture in the Mali border town of Anderamboukaneby. Two of the tourists were reportedly released on 22 April 2009. A ransom was reportedly paid. The British hostage was executed on 31 May 2009. The second Swiss captive was released in July 2009. Again, a ransom was reportedly paid. In exchange for the Brit, AQIM had demanded the release of Abu Qatada, a Jordanian cleric in British custody.

On 14 December 2008, two Canadian diplomats were abducted by AQIM militants outside Niamey, Niger. The duo were released on 22 April 2009. A ransom was reportedly paid.

In October 2008 AQIM released two Austrian tourists in northern Mali who had been kidnapped in February 2008 in Tunisia.

Abductions in the Sahara

In another incident highlighting the growing threat of Islamist-linked abductions in the Saharan region, a French tourist and his Algerian driver were kidnapped in northern Niger on 21 April near the town of Tiguidan Tessoun. The abduction is the latest in a string of abductions in the region targeting foreign nationals. The incident came as Saharan states announced the establishment of an anti-terror HQ in southern Algeria aimed at combatting this particular and growing threat. It remains to be seen if states like Niger, whos armed forces exert negligible authority outside of primary urban centres, can assist in any meaningful way. Algeria, with its well-equipped armed forces, will have to take the burden for this new venture; however, whether neighbouring states will alow Algerian military units in their territories remains unknown. As such MECASR expects extremists to continue to take advantage of the insecurity in the region to abduct foreign, particular Western, nationals.

The Saharan miracle

In a region where coups and political instability are as common as flies on starving baby's faces, there are positive signs that the military junta running Niger will soon hand over power to a civilian government. In February 2010, members of the armed forces captured President Tandja and members of his cabinet and took control of the country. Now they say a consultative council including members of all sectors of the political and military spectrum is being established under long time opposition leader Amadou to review the controversial constitutional changes made by Tandja in 2009. The body is also being tasked with arranging fresh elections; however, in another positive move the military junta (led by Salou Djibo, pictured here) have stated that no members of the military or the consultative council may run in the next election. Its not all good, it never is. There are concerns over the status of the Tuareg rebels. A delegation of the rebels arrived in Niamey in early April but faced less than a warm welcome by the ruling junta. Long time rebel leader, Rhissa Ag Boula, and Kindo Zada, an ex-Niger army officer who deserted the military to join the Tuareg rebellion in 2007 were immediately arrested by the local security forces. The rebels, who signed peace agreements with the Tandja government in 2009, have not responded but we dont think this is necessarily a bad thing. The rebels are being shown that the junta will not negotiate with murderers (Ag Bougla has faced a murder rap since 2008), turncoats or other individuals showing 'anti-Nigerien' qualities. Who knows, the country may yet turn things around and with the current hard man and protector of the people, Salou Djibo, at the helm who would bet against them.

Maliki throws a tantrum

In what is likely to result in significant political tensions in the coming weeks - Nouri al-Maliki's, State of Law, party have emerged with two seats fewer than Iraqiya. The result means that Maliki is likely to loose his position as PM in the coming weeks as Iraqiya seek an alliance with other major parties to form a ruling coalition. Maliki has already decried the result alleging widespread fraud and demanding a manual recount. However, both the Iraq Election Commission and UN body assigned to oversee the election had deemed the poll free and fair. It will now be up to the Iraqi Supreme Court to give the results a final sign off before becoming official. In the mean time pressure from Maliki will continue to be borne down on the bodies assigned to oversee the poll. But will there be violence? Maliki's election platform was based on returning law and order to the country. If there was one party we had to choose to feel aggrieved it would be the State of Law - a coalition of parties that have openly based their political outlook on due process and rule of law. However, fringe groups will continue to attempt to undermine the political system. The Islamic State of Iraq, aka al-Qaeda in Iraq, have already stated that they will be moving towards targeting political parties. The group has shown a tremendous ability to fight on despite loosing large swathes of territory in the west and centre in recent years. Its highly complex multiple terrorist bombings in supposedly well-protected urban centres has surprised many, no least the 1 million strong Iraqi security forces. Interesting times ahead for Iraq.