Open season for Spanish nationals?

Three Spanish nationals working for the humanitarian aid group, Barcelona- Accio Solidaria, where kidnapped by gunmen near the Mauritanian town of Chelkhett Legtouta on the road between Nouadhibou and the capital, Nouakchott on Sunday. The incident, which has not been claimed, is somewhat of a rarity in the north west African state which has not experienced many abductions in recent years. The prime suspects in this case are undoubtedly al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the local al-Qaeda affiliated franchise. The group, which has carried out half a dozen attacks against locals and foreigners in the country in the past year, has a growing presence in the wider region and is posing a growing threat to local states keen to project an image of security to foreign investors. At the moment the aid workers remain unaccounted for and the local security forces have been dispatched to the area to search for the group. The likelihood that they will be recovered is diminishing with every passing hour due to the sheer enormity of the possible land area that needs to be searched. The abductors, if they escape the dragnet, will most likely take refuge in central or northern Mauritania or along the border with the Western Sahara before demanding a ransom payment from the Spanish government. If this happens the state will probably pay. Earlier in the month the Spanish government paid two million pounds Sterling for the release of 36 Spanish seamen kidnapped by pirates off Somalia. This policy has been criticised by the UK and other Western governments, who refuse to pay ransoms for the release of their nationals. This payment has likely sent a strong message to prospective kidnappers "Open season for Spaniards". Our message to Spanish citizens in North Africa - consider a vacation back to the homeland.

Election timetable out the window in Iraq

The January 2010 timeline for the Iraqi general elections is looking like a distinct impossibility at the moment as opposing sides continue to bicker over power sharing agreements in any future Iraqi government. Bickering between Kurds (who want greater autonomy in the north and control of Kirkuk), Sunnis (who feel left out of the political process all together) and the majority Shiite (who continue to fight among themselves) are the greatest obstacles at the moment. Making matters worse is the rise in violence over the past few months that has seen Iraq's major cities being struck by wave after wave of devastating suicide and car bombings. The Sunni tribal elements who long gave refuge to Sunni extremists groups (read al-Qaeda) are also beginning to doubt the willingness of the Shiite majority to allow them into the mainstream after they were made promises that they would be incorporated into the state fold if they rid their territories of the insurgents. They have kept their side of the bargain but are beginning to think that they were suckered into a deal before anything concrete was forthcoming from the central government. As for the US troops, currently getting fatter in their bases outside of the primary urban centres, no one seems to know when or how they will be pulled out of a country that is no where near able to provide security for its own civilians. The cost in American lives has dropped due to the recent withdrawal of US troops from the towns however the financial cost of staying in Iraq continues to drain the American taxpayer. It is becoming increasingly likely that the poll will be further delayed barring any miraculous election deal. MECASR continues to watch developments with great interest.

Massive car bombs in Baghdad

Two massive car bombs near government buildings in Baghdad and 700 casualties later, have left local residents asking questions about the ability of the local police to provide adequate security to civilians. The attacks occurred during peak hour traffic in the early morning of Sunday morning (the equivalent of Monday in Western nations) and left a swathe of destruction in the immediate blast zone destroying vehicles, buildings and water pipes. When Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki arrived later in the day with the media's video cameras central Baghdad was painted red with the blood of its victims and the rubble of the earlier attack remained strewn around the streets in a Stalingradish type fresco. The attacks were timed to coincide with the meeting of a number of senior leaders in the country who were set to meet to iron out disputes surrounding the January election. It is highly likely that Sunni extremists (read al-Qaeda) used this opportunity to send a clear message to the political parties that they will do everything in their power to ensure that the poll is delayed and or does not proceed. If this were to happen it is possible that sectarian violence may well again resume in a country that is battling to recover from nearly eight years of continuous conflict.

 

Video of the attack (Al-Jazeera)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laAcKdMp-cw

The Saudis finally get involved

Mecasr received word that Saudi border troops and Shiite rebels in northern Yemen came to blows along the shared border yesterday. The news is not surprising as tensions between the predominantly Sunni Saud and Shiite rebel group, the Believing Youth, are at an all time low following allegations that Saudi Arabia is funding the Yemeni government's war effort against the rebels. Details of the attack aren't clear; however, from what we have been able to stitch together it seems that the Saudis were constructing a border fence in the area and that locals objected to it saying it would hurt their commercial activities. In fact the Saudis are publicly planning to build hundreds of kilometers of fencing along their border with Iraq and Yemen shortly and this may be the start of that construction period, sped up because of the recent outbreak in hostilities in Yemen (the Yemen government launched Operations Scorched Earth on 11 August). The violence yesterday left dozens of casualties according to PressTV the Shiite Iranian media website. News from the Yemenis and Saudis is scant and we are unlikely to get any further clarity from them any time soon so concerned are they with their image in the West regarding human rights. Mecasr expect that more such incidents may be reported (or occur and go unreported) in the short term while the battle for supremacy in northern Yemen goes on. Rebel elements are unlikely to directly target Saudi officials because they are already fully stretched against the Yemeni Army - we can expect a few cross border potshots, however.

ICG report on Iraq

The International Crisis Group have just released a very good report on the situation in Iraq's embattled northern Ninawa governorate. Anyone interested in knowing more about the conflict should definitely check it out:

 

"[Ninawa provides fertile ground for the Sunni insurgency which is]...fuelled by the governorate’s strong Arabist, military and (Sunni) religious tradition and propelled by growing anti-Kurdish and anti-Shiite resentment. Groups taking up arms against U.S. troops and Kurdish fighters exploited the long, often unguarded Syrian border and a history of cross-border trade, while finding ready recruits among former officers, Baathists and an increasingly destitute youth to impose their rule over predominantly Sunni Arab areas. From 2003 to 2008, Ninewa appeared caught between Kurdish dominance and Sunni insurgents."

 

The full report is available here http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6318&l=1

Southern Yemen aflame

With all the focus on typhoons and earthquakes in the Pacific there has been scant media coverage of the unrest that is currently engulfing southern and northern Yemen. While much has been written about the armed conflict in the north by MECASR in recent months the southern issue has received only passing interest. Over the past three days southerners alligned to the Southern Movement, a group of southern parties and civil groups opposed to the continued economic and political marginalisation of southern Yemen by the north, have staged numerous demonstrations and protests, clashing with security forces in Lajhij and Abyan governorates on a number of occassions. Dozens of people have been wounded in the unrest. The protesters have also taken to attacking government installations and removing Yemen flags replacing them with the former Southern Yemen flag in places where the government has only a limited presence (the north and south fought a brief civil war in the early 1990s following unification of the two states). The central government has since deployed additional troops to the south to quell the uprising - focusing its efforts on the towns of Zinjibar and Habilyan, the worst affected centres. We can expect further violence in coming days. If the Southern Movement decide to proceed with their activities it will come at a particular good time as the central government is distracted by fighting rebels in the northern Saada governorate. Game on.

Afghan quagmire and solutions

NATO's recent offensive in southern Afghanistan has clearly failed. The Taleban have done what everyone, except the American commanders realised, they simply relocated to the mountains and in the timeless Afghan tradition will wait out the foreign invaders. The question for US-led NATO now is, now what? Numerous exit strategies have been presented such as defeating the Taleban militarily and co-opting local tribal groups; however, Obama summed it up recently when he said there was no quick fix and the US would need to spend a great deal of time in the country. Mecasr has been thinking about possible end-games of late and has come up with a few suggestions:

 

1. Divide the country up into three countries and cede some Pushtun areas along the Pakistan border to Pakistan. Too much investment has gone into Kabul while its extremities are racked by conflict, tribalism and ethnic distrust. Giving people their own state is the only solution. As we saw with Korea and Japan, homogenous societies are quite capable of developing - ethnic rivalries are the primary point of contestation in states from Africa to Asia where the democratic model has failed.

 

2. Centre all NATO forces on the three main cities, Kandahar, Herat and Kabul and the transport routes. Leave the Taleban in their mountain strongholds.

 

3. Reform the state. Corruption is rampant. Get rid of the riff raff and start again. Karzai must go.

 

4. Include Iran and other neighbouring states in the internal security of the state. NATO can't do it alone.