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Egypt referendum date

The Constitutional referendum in Egypt has been set for 14 and 15 January. The draft was created by a 50-member committee, excluding the former regime, which was ousted by the military in July. The former regime, now opposition, and a range of other groups are expected to boycott the poll.

red24 Security Briefing - Islamist militancy in Yemen

I recently wrote a briefing on the state of Jihad in Yemen. Here is an excerpt and a link through to the article.

"...Given current political, economic and social conditions in Yemen, AQAP will continue to find unstable areas within which to conduct its operations against the state. Only a full negotiated settlement between Yemen's differing warring or competing regional and political groups will offer the state adequate time and space to confront the Islamists in a meaningful manner. Even if a political solution was found it would still take years for the government to fully eradicate the militant threat given the increasing interconnectivity between militants and local tribes. AQAP is, therefore, expected to continue to grow and increase its presence in the state."

For more - https://www.red24.com/members/intelligence/newsletters_security_briefings/rising_islamist_militancy_yemen_11122013.php

A deadly attack in Sanaa

On 5 December 2013, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) launched a bold attack against the Ministry of Defence complex in central Sanaa, the Yemeni capital. The attack began when a suicide car bomber rammed the entrance to the facility and detonated his explosives creating a breach through which a number of well-armed militants dressed in military attire entered the facility. Following a gun battle with local guards and the elimination of all of the militants, at least 52 people had been killed, including seven foreign nationals and a relative of the Yemeni president, and over 160 wounded. The target of the attack was a hospital located on the grounds; AQAP's media wing, al-Mallahem, stated via a Twitter post on 6 December that the attack was conducted because the building "accommodates drone control rooms and American experts" – a reference to US military personnel who currently operate in Yemen with the local security forces and who have coordinated a highly successful and deadly drone strike war against Islamist militants in the country since 2011.

Target Iran - Another bombing in Beirut

A suicide bomber and car bomb detonated outside of the Iranian embassy in Lebanon's capital, Beirut, on 19 November. The blast in the Bir Hassan district left at least 23 people dead and 146 more wounded. Among the fatalities were members of the Iranian diplomatic representation. It is unclear at this time which group coordinated the attack; however, given the location and target of the attack a connection to the Syrian conflict is likely. Sunni rebels and militant groups battling the Syrian regime have threatened to carry out retaliatory attacks against the Syrian government's allies, specifically Hezbollah, which maintains a strong presence in southern Beirut, and Iran, on a number of occasions since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011. There is evidence to suggest that the spate of recent bombings in Beirut and the wider country are directly connected to the conflict in Syria (see below). The ongoing fighting in Syria will continue to stoke tensions and further retaliatory action is likely in Lebanon.

On 14 October, the local authorities reportedly defused a 'car bomb' in the Maamura area of southern Beirut. The area is considered a Hezbollah stronghold.
On 15 August, a car bomb detonated in the Ruwaiss area of southern Beirut, killing at least 16 people and wounding 200 others. The attack was claimed by the Brigade of Aisha, the Mother of the Faithful. The Lebanese president blamed Israel for the attack.
On 9 July, a car bomb exploded in Beirut's Bir al-Abed suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold, wounding 37 people.
On 26 May, two rockets were fired into the southern Shiyah area of Beirut, wounding four people. The wounded were Syrian nationals. Hezbollah maintains a strong presence in the affected area.
On 9/10 April, Hezbollah militia discovered and defused a bomb in Beirut's Hay al-Sellom area. The device had inscriptions indicating a link to the Syria-based al-Nusra Front.
On 28 January, a bomb exploded under a car in Beirut's Hay al-Sellom area, wounding two people. 

Massacre in Ghargour

Anti-militia sentiment generated by a militia skirmish in Tripoli on 7 November led hundreds of people to gather in the Ghargour area of the capital on 15 November. What was meant to be a peaceful protest ended in violence and the death of 47 people when militia in the area opened fire on the protesters. The militia are from Misratah, a highly independent city 192km east of Tripoli, which achieved global fame for its resistance against the Gaddafi regime during the 2011 Libyan civil war. Following the conflict the Misratah militia and rebel groups from around the country, remained in Tripoli despite strong opposition from locals for them to relocate. These militias have presented the authorities with numerous challenges as they have been frequently implicated in clashes with rivals and disruptive protests. The 15 November violence will add pressure on the government to deal with the issue. However, a simple removal of militias is not immediately anticipated. The Misratah militia, like the Zintan militia, which guards the Tripoli International Airport, are politically connected and take orders from their brigade commanders, not the central government. Moving them will take time and further conflict is anticipated.

Muharram, a new start and security threat

Muharram is around the corner and Muslims are gearing up to celebrate the start of the Islamic New Year. On the western calendar the new Islamic year starts on 4 November. The period is important for Muslims, particularly those linked to the Shiite sect. The tenth day of Muharram is the day Shiites believe Imam Hussayn, the grandson of the Prophet, was struck and killed in Karbala, Iraq. Large religious processions accompany the day in Iraq and other countries with large Shiite populations, including Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. These events have been characterised by disturbances in the past. Many Sunni Muslims consider Shiites heretics and militant groups and extremists have carried out attacks against Shiite interests during Ashura in the past. Further incidents are anticipated this year.