The Saharan miracle

In a region where coups and political instability are as common as flies on starving baby's faces, there are positive signs that the military junta running Niger will soon hand over power to a civilian government. In February 2010, members of the armed forces captured President Tandja and members of his cabinet and took control of the country. Now they say a consultative council including members of all sectors of the political and military spectrum is being established under long time opposition leader Amadou to review the controversial constitutional changes made by Tandja in 2009. The body is also being tasked with arranging fresh elections; however, in another positive move the military junta (led by Salou Djibo, pictured here) have stated that no members of the military or the consultative council may run in the next election. Its not all good, it never is. There are concerns over the status of the Tuareg rebels. A delegation of the rebels arrived in Niamey in early April but faced less than a warm welcome by the ruling junta. Long time rebel leader, Rhissa Ag Boula, and Kindo Zada, an ex-Niger army officer who deserted the military to join the Tuareg rebellion in 2007 were immediately arrested by the local security forces. The rebels, who signed peace agreements with the Tandja government in 2009, have not responded but we dont think this is necessarily a bad thing. The rebels are being shown that the junta will not negotiate with murderers (Ag Bougla has faced a murder rap since 2008), turncoats or other individuals showing 'anti-Nigerien' qualities. Who knows, the country may yet turn things around and with the current hard man and protector of the people, Salou Djibo, at the helm who would bet against them.

Maliki throws a tantrum

In what is likely to result in significant political tensions in the coming weeks - Nouri al-Maliki's, State of Law, party have emerged with two seats fewer than Iraqiya. The result means that Maliki is likely to loose his position as PM in the coming weeks as Iraqiya seek an alliance with other major parties to form a ruling coalition. Maliki has already decried the result alleging widespread fraud and demanding a manual recount. However, both the Iraq Election Commission and UN body assigned to oversee the election had deemed the poll free and fair. It will now be up to the Iraqi Supreme Court to give the results a final sign off before becoming official. In the mean time pressure from Maliki will continue to be borne down on the bodies assigned to oversee the poll. But will there be violence? Maliki's election platform was based on returning law and order to the country. If there was one party we had to choose to feel aggrieved it would be the State of Law - a coalition of parties that have openly based their political outlook on due process and rule of law. However, fringe groups will continue to attempt to undermine the political system. The Islamic State of Iraq, aka al-Qaeda in Iraq, have already stated that they will be moving towards targeting political parties. The group has shown a tremendous ability to fight on despite loosing large swathes of territory in the west and centre in recent years. Its highly complex multiple terrorist bombings in supposedly well-protected urban centres has surprised many, no least the 1 million strong Iraqi security forces. Interesting times ahead for Iraq.

Ethnic cleansing in central Nigeria

While MECASR rarely documents security related news from Nigeria a recent act of violence has caught our attention. On 7 March dozens of Muslim Hausa-Fulani herders brandishing simple weapons such as clubs, machetes and knives attacked predominantly Borom Christian villages outside of Jos in Plateau State. Some reports indicate that the attackers used fishing nets and animal traps to snare their vicitms, mainly women and children, before hacking them to death. The aftermath of the attack has shocked locals and the world. Over 500 bodies have so far been recovered from the early sunday morning blood-letting and the army has been placed on alert and deployed to the state. The violence follows similiar communal clashes in January that left approximately 300 people dead. The fact that such violence is allowed to continue is a serious endictment of the local security forces and Nigerian domestic intelligence services. The Nigerian government is well aware of the simmering tensions along the Muslim north and Christian south faultine which cuts Nigeria in half through Plateau state but has put few measures in place to counter the problem. Competition over local farmland, cattle theft and migration of northerners into central Nigeria has been the primary motivation for the violence and if these issues are not addressed quickly further communal violence is likely. MECASR continues to watch developments closely and the reaction of the current regime which is being led by stand-in president Goodluck Jonathan.   

Triple suicide attacks underscore security risks in Iraq ahead of poll

A complex terrorist attack in Baquba, Diyala governorate, left dozens of people dead earlier today. Suspected Sunni extremists detonated two car bombs in central and western Baquba near police stations and a busy intersection leaving a swathe of destruction. A third bomber, dressed in military uniform, ambushed the wounded at a nearby hospital, nearly tripling the casualty count. The attacks come four days before key parliamentary elections and underlines the ability of extremists to continue to carry out attacks despite widespread security measures already in force. Mecasr will be watching developments closely.

Key Iraqi security challenge ahead of March poll

Ahead of contentious Iraqi parliamentary polls on 7 March, the mood in Baghdad is muted. Sunni insurgents led by the Islamic State of Iraq (Al-Qaeda) have staged a number of high profile and bloody attacks in the city in recent months, vowing to overthrow the illegitimate regime of PM Maliki and stoke tensions between Shiite and Sunni communities. Attacks in Shiite holy areas (Karbala and Najaf) have also revealed the insurgents goal of wideing the rift between the two main Iraqi groups and returning the country to anarchy not seen since the height of the sectarian conflict in 2006. As 7 March draws closer the insurgents will become increasingly desperate to stage bolder and deadlier attacks, for a successful election will greatly reduce what little legitimacy they have left in the eyes of the Iraqi people. The key test for the Iraqi government therefore is security and free and fair polls (and preferably a poll which results in a fair distribution of power). Mecasr continue to watch with interest.

Key Iraqi security challenge ahead of March poll

Ahead of contentious Iraqi parliamentary polls on 7 March, the mood in Baghdad is muted. Sunni insurgents led by the Islamic State of Iraq (Al-Qaeda) have staged a number of high profile and bloody attacks in the city in recent months, vowing to overthrow the illegitimate regime of PM Maliki and stoke tensions between Shiite and Sunni communities. Attacks in Shiite holy areas (Karbala and Najaf) have also revealed the insurgents goal of wideing the rift between the two main Iraqi groups and returning the country to anarchy not seen since the height of the sectarian conflict in 2006. As 7 March draws closer the insurgents will become increasingly desperate to stage bolder and deadlier attacks, for a successful election will greatly reduce what little legitimacy they have left in the eyes of the Iraqi people. The key test for the Iraqi government therefore is security and free and fair polls (and preferably a poll which results in a fair distribution of power). Mecasr continue to watch with interest.

Saharan blues

The culture of lawlessness in the Sahara region continues to be a issue of concern, not only for local banana republics keen to show the world a modern investor friendly face, but also for developed nations who are facing an increasing number of demands from local kidnappers. In the past two months three Spanish, one French and two Italian nationals have been kidnapped in the region and at least one botched kidnapping in Niger has left four Saudi tourists dead. The abductions have been claimed by the local al-Qaeda outfit although it is likely that local bandits carried out the actual abductions and sold them on to AQ. Hefty ransom demands have been made and amid public posturing by European governments that no ransom payments are being considered, negotiations are believed to be underway for the release of the hostages.

 

The Sahara is increasingly being marketed by a saturated tourism industry as the next best thing, with desert festivals and old trading routes being offerred to adventure seekers. However, with this increase in tourists the temptation for locals, most of whom earn less than a dollar a day, to kidnap foreigners is too much to pass up. Bottom line, expect more kidnappings in the coming months. By the way if you were planning a trip to the Sahara, perhaps reconsider and spend your money locally, heaven knows with all the non-ransom payments being made, European governments need the extra tax revenue.