Vote ANC. You are the problem.

 If you vote ANC on May 29. You are the problem.

SA: The election precipice

 South Africa is nine days away from a historic and defining election. Over the course of its history, the country has, at different times, been dominated by one force over the other: the British, the Afrikaner nationalists, and now the Black nationalists. For the first time, democratic and peaceful means may lead to a new order—an order of coalitions, differing worldviews, and ideologies, and one that could redefine the country.

Latest polling suggests that the ANC could receive around 45% of the vote with the DA in second at around the 25% mark. The impact of load shedding, economic and municipal mismanagement, and, quite frankly, bizarre socialist policies have come home to roost for the ANC. So, what lies ahead if this result plays out. The DA and its partners in the Multi-Party Charter are unlikely to breach the 50+1 mark. Leaving the formation of a government up to the ANC. Its relationship with the MK and EFF (in third and fourth place) is shaky. Its former leader, Zuma, recently banned from standing in Parliament, has an awkward relationship with about half the party. The EFF’s Julius Malema is an unpredictable player and a strong ANC critic. However, the right financial and power incentives could sway him to join.

It is likely that the ANC will seek out a smaller partner or smaller partners. Ones that it can control. Lining up is the colored nationalist PA, the Afrikaner nationalist FF+, or Islamist Al-Jamaah. However, if the ANC achieves 45 or less, it may still need more partners. The potential for an agreement (not coalition) with the DA exists. The DA could demand certain policy guarantees from the ANC in exchange for a vote for the deputy speaker, speaker and president.

The two weeks following the election will be critical. Negotiations will occur, and decisions will be made. If none are made, and in the extreme case, the ANC could call for fresh elections. This seems possible but unlikely.

Another factor to consider is that should the ANC not be able to reach a stable governing coalition, Cyril Ramaphosa could be recalled by the party. It’s been done before. This could usher in the likes of Paul Mashatile, the current Deputy President.

Whichever way you look at it, drama is likely to come in early June.