Sophisticated militant attacks in 2013

Islamist extremists have proven themselves capable of increasingly sophisticated and complex attacks targeting well-guarded business and state sites in recent years. The most recent example of this was the hostage crisis in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, from 21 to 24 September. The hostage taking was led by Al-Shabaab, a Somali-based and al-Qaeda-linked armed group, which is currently battling the AU forces and Somali government in Somalia. The group stated that the operation was in response to the Kenyan government's military offensive into Somalia in 2011 (Operation Linda Nchi). The final count of the operation is 72 dead and over 200 wounded. The attack against a prominent business site in the heart of Kenya’s capital shocked the nation and questions have been raised about how this could happen? Of course, to those in the know this attack has been waiting to happen and is not something extraordinary. In fact in 2013, there have been at least two other major militant-led operations in Algeria and Iraq.

Algerians woke up to news of a major militant incursion into the southern In Amenas desert town area during the morning of 16 January. The world would later recount the horror of a mass hostage taking and killing of foreigners by militants loyal to the veteran fighter, Mokhtar Belmokhtar. The attack involved extensive planning and was executed without the knowledge of the relatively sophisticated and well-resourced Algerian security forces. The militant band, approximately 40 men, infiltrated a highly secure area, skirmished and defeated, at least initially, crack Algerian troops and police units, and then took control of a major gas processing plant, Tigantourine, for just under three days, despite the presence of hundreds of Algerian security force personnel. Once the incursion had finally been overcome the losses were significant. At least 37 foreign hostages had been killed, including many by Algerian security force assaults, and 29 militants were dead. *For more on the attack read Statoil’s post-incident analysis http://www.statoil.com/en/NewsAndMedia/News/2013/Pages/12Sep_InAmenas_report.aspx

Iraq has been beset by rising casualty figures in 2013 as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) and its close affiliate, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), have initiated wave after wave of once-off and coordinated countrywide mass casualty attacks in the country. The group has proven itself capable of astonishing feats. The most extraordinary in 2013 must be the July Abu Ghraib prison break. Multiple waves of suicide bombers attacked the facility while secondary gun attacks targeted the outer perimeter allowing upwards of 500 prisoners to escape the, arguably, second most well-guarded site in the country after the International Zone in central Baghdad. Among the escapees were dozens of senior AQI commanders. ISIL quite rightly lauded the operation as a major success and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was left embarrassed. *For further information on the insurgency in Iraq and the prison break, check this out http://iswiraq.blogspot.com/.

The complex attacks in 2013 show us a number of things. One, militant groups exist and many are well-resourced, motivated and trained. Two, major militant players are aware of the value of operational planning and intelligence gathering. Three, they know which sites to target to inflict the most damage to a state’s reputation or to advertise its goals. Four, they are willing to operate extra-territorially. Five, major militant groups are willing to sacrifice large numbers of its fighters to meet its goals (in all three cases most of the fighters were apprehended or killed). Six, many governments are unprepared to prevent a determined militant attack.

Complex mass casualty attacks are (the big call) likely to continue to be a major issue in the near-term. Developing conflicts in Africa, the Middle East and Asia have given rise to numerous well-armed and resourced non-state armed groups who will have studied the complex attacks in Algeria, Kenya and Iraq and seen the value the attacks have received for seemingly a bit of effort. For government’s and counter-terrorism planners the task of countering the threat is enormous. There are simply too many targets militants could strike against that would serve their goals; however, work must be done and intelligence needs to be ramped up if we are to prevent future such attacks.

The local view - South Africa is increasingly involved in extra-territorial disputes and conflicts (DRC, CAR etc) and as we attempt to further strengthen or continental position we will, like Kenya, increasingly come within the gaze of the militant groups we are attempting to subdue or overcome. South Africa’s intelligence gathering is weak (as was proven by the CAR fiasco), our borders are porous (walk a few hundred metres from a border crossing and you can cross without being bothered) and we have infrastructure that can allow militants easy movement and accessibility to high value targets. The large number of Western tourists in the country must also be of massive appeal to foreign-based militant groups. Finally, weapons are easily accessible in South Africa and planning and executing an attack in the country appears to be quite possible. It would be foolish to think that SA is immune to attacks in the future and it is incumbent upon the government to work to prevent future possible attacks.

Peace overtures by the Syrian government

Syria's Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil has stated that the conflict in the country, which has already left 100,000 people dead, has reached a stalemate. He has added that the government is open to a ceasefire at any future negotiations, specifically Geneva II talks, which have been postponed on a number of occasions.

The announcement is significant and would certainly not have been made without Bashar al-Assad's say so. The Syrian regime has just emerged from a particularly tricky period where it attempted to dissuade the US from striking its key chemical weapons sites. It, and its primary ally, Russia, managed to avert the crisis by offering to allow international observers into the country to safeguard its chemical stores, the same stores it has just recently denied it used. Within this context the regime has taken an additional step by calling for a ceasefire. It is saying all the right things.

It is careful to note that what politicians say and what they do are completely different things entirely. Last year Obama said chemical weapons use was a 'red line'. This year he denied it and has refused to take responsibility for punishing the Syrians for the 21 August chemical attack in Damascus. Putin has repeatedly stated that foreign intervention is against international law and lambasted the US for its war mongering position while carefully side stepping Russia's own history of foreign intervention in Afghanistan and more recently, Georgia.

So what is the Syrian regime up to? What is certain is that the Assad regime wants to safeguard its own interests, namely its political control and Alawite minority. So far it has succeeded, sort of. While its commercial capital, Aleppo, is devastated so are Sunni majority areas across the centre of the country. Alawite communities along the north western coastline are relatively secure and Damascus, the capital, is in regime control. The Syrians are also making significant overtures to the Kurds in the north and an autonomy deal may well be on the table – if this were to proceed to fruition the rebels would be in a very tricky position. By pressing for peace now while the rebels look ragged the Syrians will gain significant international credit. They have most likely come to the conclusion that they have lost large parts of the country but can still emerge stronger than the rebels. 

Chemical weapons and a border bombing

While the focus on the Syrian chemical weapons is losing a bit of steam in the international press the conflict within Syria continues to rage. Regime battles against rebel brigades are being reported across much of the country. In an interesting development yesterday a car bomb detonated at a border crossing into Turkey (Bab al-Hawa) killing seven people. The bomb detonated at an Islamist brigade checkpoint on the Syrian side. It's still not clear which group coordinated the attack; however, it may be linked to an incident on Monday. Turkish forces shot down a Syrian helicopter, which the Turks allege, had crossed into Turkish air space. The Syrians, naturally, deny this was the case and have lambasted the Turkish aggression. Here's the analytical long shot. . . The bombing was related. It is possible that Syrian intelligence activated an anti-Turkish militant cell in the north. The bombers were aiming to deliver the bomb to a Turkish border town when the vehicle was stopped. Fearing they'd be found out, they detonated the device. Alternatively, another rebel group (there are many, and most don't like each other) may have conducted the attack against an opponent. Any which way you look at it, the incident serves to highlight one major point. Syria is not a friendly place at the moment.

Yom Kippur shutdown in Israel

The Israeli authorities have, as anticipated, sealed access to parts of the Palestinian controlled parts of the West Bank until midnight on 14 September during the Jewish Yom Kippur observance. Crossings into the territory were closed late on 12 September. Border crossings between Israel and Egypt and Jordan have also been closed for the duration of the observance, which ends during the evening of 14 September. Security will also be increased countrywide, particularly at synagogues and in mixed (Christian/Jewish or Muslim/Jewish) cities and towns, while public transportation, including air travel, and business operations will be significantly reduced. The additional security measures have been enforced in response to the threat of Islamist and Palestinian extremist attacks. In addition, elevated security will be in place at the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Palestinians men under the age of 45 will also be restricted from accessing the site for Friday prayers. The security increase is not in response to Yom Kippur but rather relates to low-level violence at the site over the past week and a recent threat by the armed wing of Fatah, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigade, that it had ordered attacks against Israel from 13 September.

- red24 alert, issued on 13 September. If you'd like information on this service, visit www.red24.com

Assad's Gas

Obama's Quandary on Syria

A US Strike on Syria is becoming increasingly unlikely in the face of growing opposition to Obama's resolution requesting Congressional authorization. An initial vote on the resolution is due to be held in the US Senate on Wednesday but given recent statements and opposition from senators the vote may be delayed to Thursday or even Friday. If the vote does proceed it will then be followed by another round of voting, possibly over the weekend or early next week. If senate votes not / the resolution does not receive at least 60% support the House of Representatives is unlikely to vote for the resolution either. This back and forth of course does not change the fact that the US president can authorize strikes without congressional approval. However, doing so now, after he has referred the resolution to the bicameral house, would be political suicide. 

The US regime's moral high ground

The blood of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanistanis cover the hands of the US regime (not too mention the millions of poor that have died at the hands of their created market system) and now they sit and decide on the ethics of a punitive strike against Syria. The US regime would gain more world favour if they stuck to the facts (they used weapons we are attacking them because of that) and did not appeal to our sense of morality or some distant ethical standard. 

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/09/03/politics/five-things-syria-hearing/index.html?hpt=hp_c1

Syria updates

The Institute for the Study of war has a fantastic blog on the current Syria concern -> http://iswsyria.blogspot.com/ If you want to know whats going on, what war assets are stationed in the region and what TLAM means, check this site out. 

Super MENA Mario

On a lighter note, something this blog is not known for, I'd like to introduce the game which calms all concerns of imminent Syrian meltdown. I refer, of course, to Super Mario or Super MENA Mario as the Middle East desk refers. Tell me this sweet melody doesn't calm the waters -> http://www.marioflash.org/

Scenes of war - Homs

http://exitleftproject.wordpress.com/2013/08/23/panorama-of-destruction-the-story-behind-the-aerial-view-of-homs/

Hijacking at Tripoli International Airport?

There was speculation in the media last night that a Royal Jordanian (RJ) Airlines aircraft had been hijacked at Tripoli International Airport. Not surprising given the country's insecurity, you may say. What was surprising is that the Jordanian airline issued a statement later denying that one of their aircraft had been hijacked. So what's the fuss? Well, the Libyan authorities did close the airport runway in response to something. What that something is, is uncertain. Best guess? Some loon tried to get on to the runway or threatened an aircraft at the facility. It's happened before. Tripoli Airport security is slightly better than security at your home but not as good as what is required for an international airport sadly. We expect more such incidents.