Egyptian political system in turmoil

The Egyptian political system is in turmoil following a decision by the Supreme Court on 14 June to dissolve the popularly elected and Islamist-dominated legislature. The decision was based on the premise that the election of independents was unconstitutional given that members of political parties could stand as independents and enjoy the backing of powerful party's to the detriment of 'true' independents. The fact that this was not picked up prior to the election points to a possible conspiracy by members of the ruling military council who to date have shown a great ability in undermine any gains made by democratic forces. Following the dissolution, the SCAF issued new addendums to the interim constitution which gave it full legislative powers and additional rights over the drafting of a future constitution. The addendums also severely eroded the power of the future president, who is due to be announced on 21 June following a run-off vote on 16 and 17 June. The fate of the Egyptian revolution is hanging in the balance. With strong indications of protester fatigue and a possible reluctance on the side of the Islamists to directly challenge the powerful military the new Egyptian democratic model is in serious jeopardy. 

Massacres in Syria

(Inset - One victim out of 80 after Alawite Muslim massacre of Sunni civilians in the villages of al-Kubeir and Maarzaf on 6 June) Viewing Youtube clips of Syrian massacre victims is at once shocking and sadly, enlightening. While the general media present statistics to update the world on the violence in the country real footage of the war is a stark reminder that urgency is required to end the massacre of civilians and the avoidable conflict between a poorly equipped rebel force and the regime. The UN has done precious little to end the war. Rather it has played its usual game of denouncing and imposing sanctions. Its inability to effect real change has also (again) shown how useless the organization is if one or, in this case, two major Security Council members, refuse to ok stronger action. Yet what can one do? The UN is, at least, doing what it has been mandated to do. But what of other states, even those unconnected to the conflict? What of South Africa? Brazil? India? Where are these powers? While the conflict has not impacted on any countries outside of the Levant it has stained humanity’s history and one can but hope that change for the better will come soon.

Bahrain's slide into uncertainty

Thinking about Bahrain I can’t help but feel disenchanted by the way the political process is unfolding. Shiites, who account for the majority of the population, have been agitating for greater political representation and power that reflects their position for years. In the past year and a half their plight has been broadcast globally as foreign media focused on countries affected by the Arab Spring. In early 2011, the Shiites launched a major campaign in Manama to demand political reforms. The regime acted harshly and called in Saudi military muscle to quash the protest movement. The resultant violence radicalized the Shiite movement considerably and polarized the state even further. The Sunni minority ruling class is still holding on to power but how long can it maintain its hegemony now that more than half of the country support the overthrow of the Sunni monarchy? End games are difficult to predict but in Bahrain’s case one can’t help but feel that without radical political change the monarchy’s days are numbered.

Thoughts on the upcoming Egyptian presidential poll

(Inset: Islamist candidate, Morsy) I'm looking ahead with interest to the forthcoming presidential election in Egypt between Islamist candidate, Mohamed Morsy and former regime stalwart, Ahmed Shafik, on 16 June. The election is viewed as the final hurdle Egypt must cross before its transition from authoritarian rule to democracy is accomplished. At least that's the way it is being presented. In reality the resignation of Mubarak in 2011 changed very little. Yes, the National Democratic Party (NDP) was banned and dismantled and Mubarak lost his job. But as Shafik's ascendancy proves, elements of the former regime remain in positions of power. The military and its special interests, the backbone of Egypt since independence, have also played a crucial role in the post-Mubarak environment. It has led the executive and is unlikely to give up its power that easily to a civilian president and even less likely to surrender it to an Islamist president. This leads us to what powers the president will have. Under the Muabarak regime the executive was the most powerful in the system. The legislature acted as a rubber stamp for decisions made by Mubarak and his inner circle. The military is unlikely to accept a new constitution (efforts are underway to formulate this) which maintains this executive power of the president or reduces the power of the military. Finally, Egypt's revolutionaries who led the charge against Mubarak during the Arab Spring feel justifiably left out. They wanted an open, secular, democratic and civilian government. What they have currently is a military dominated state with an overwhelmingly strong Islamist leaning parliament. The polarisation of Egypt is palpable and one expects will continue to characterise the landscape for some years to come.

So, "whats changed?", you ask.

Its been 18 months since the Arab Spring started - so whats changed? Simple answer. Not much. From Morocco to Iran, the 'street' has failed to bring revolution. Rather it has brought buckets of hope and promises to reform. MECASR presents the Arab Spring scorecard: Morocco - The king is still the big cheese and parliament are still lackies. Want to book a nice holiday. Morocco is the place to be. The opposition may mount some challenge in the near term. But for now, business as usual. Algeria - The ruling party successfully manipulated the recent poll and dominates the political scene. The people seem unbothered as long as food prices stay low. Tunisia - One of the few success stories. Ennahada has come to power and the old regime is pretty much gone. Libya - No Gaddafi = good. No Gaddafi = bad. With no strongman to unite this fractured country the medium term outlook remains bleak. Egypt - Its lost US$21 of its 36 billion foreign currency reserve in the past 18 months. It has a toothless parliament and still no president. Hopefully the military will give the new president some power. Hopefully Santa will give me a porsche this year. Don't hold your breathe. Yemen - Saleh is gone and Hadi is in. The country, however, is pretty much gone. The people got their wish, but without a strongman there are strong indications that this country will continue to fracture. 20 year forecast, failed state. Saudi Arabia - Thank goodness for all that oil. Iran - The Persians have a tight hold on their country and the regime looks stronger than ever. Anyone's guess what Israel and the US will do about its nukes. Serious gray zone here. Forecasting for Iran is difficult. Bahrain - Dynamite comes in small packages and in Bahrain there isn't much of it left because its all been thrown at the police. The Sunni minority are holding on and the Shiites national sport, the riot, is gaining in popularity. The Sunnis have one major card that will keep them in power...Sunni Saudi Arabia. Its still closer than Shiite Iran and until that earthquake pushes Bahrain across the Gulf, Bahrain will remain Sunni. Queue endless protesting for the rest of eternity.

Impending doom in Syria

From time to time one gets a sense of an impending event, good or bad. In this case, bad. I speak of course of Syria. Efforts by Kofi Anan, the eternal optimist, to broker a truce have failed, again. The rebels have openly withdrawn from the 12 April truce agreement and by all accounts the fighting in the country has intensified. Do not be fooled by the regime offering aid corridors to the humanitarian organisations. This, like the limited UN observer mission, is being carefully managed by Assad and his cronies who are using the simple equation of aid worker/observer in = fighting stops. Aid worker/observer out = fighting continues. Over the past two days the regime has extended its offensive in Hama and Latakia and rebels claim to have killed over 100 soldiers. Russia and China, Syria's two principle allies, are losing patience, but are unlikely to withdraw support fully. Syria, sensing its time is running out is likely to attempt something silly. An escalation in-country, fomenting chaos in Lebanon or something more rash. The breaking point is coming and its not a case of if but rather when.