The weekly wrap up

This past week has been quite interesting in the Middle East. In Lebanon, a car bomb was detonated in the Asrafiyah area of the city on Friday. The explosion killed eight people including a major security force official, Wissam Hasan. The attack also occurred in a Christian area of the city but this was less important than the primary victim who had close ties to the Sunni Muslim opposition, specifically Rafik Hariri, a Sunni Muslim and former prime minister who was killed in similar circumstances in 2005. The assassination touched off gunfights between Sunni and Shiite/Alawite Muslim gunmen across the country, including in southern Beirut, Tripoli and Sidon. In Iraq, Baghdad has slipped under the radar; however, shooting and bomb attacks on Saturday and today (23 Oct) have left over two dozen people dead. Much of the same you may say, but the government prides itself on its security in the capital and these incidents will undermine popular confidence in the police and the government. The region will also host a number of anniversaries and religious events in the coming days. Today is Liberation Day in Libya. It’s been a year since Libya was officially ‘liberated’ by the rebel NTC but it seems the country’s problems are just beginning with militia’s running riot and assassinations a near daily occurrence. The big event of course will be in Saudi Arabia this Wednesday when the number of Hajj pilgrims will peak at two million. Pilgrims will flood into Mecca, Medina and Mina placing heavy strain on public transport and the security forces. Other areas of interest are Yemen, where the Southern Movement has reportedly agreed to join the National Dialogue meeting scheduled for November, and Syria which remains in the throes of a seemingly endless and bloody civil war.

Summing up my recent distractions

It has been a while since my last blog entry and that is because the Middle East has been keeping us at red24 pretty busy. From Libya to Iran there are fears and concerns that revolutions are failing and that war is imminent. Libya is a particularly problematic country at the moment. The government is still struggling to finalise a cabinet and Islamist militias are making life difficult for the government in the east. In Egypt, President Mursi is facing strong opposition from secularists. On Friday clashes were reported between protesters denouncing Mursi's government and Muslim Brotherhood protesters. The unrest is unlikely to be the last as Egypt is in the final stages of finishing a constitution. The biggy in the region has to be the threat of war between Iran and Israel. Who knows where this fight is going? We've worked on a security brief on the issue at red24. You can access it here . One pretty cool thing I've read lately is a book called 'Son of Hamas' Its a biography written by and about Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of a founding members of Hamas who turned to Christ during his 20s. If that wasn't shocking enough he also spied on Hamas for Shin Bet, the Israeli intelligence agency. Obviously, his Muslim family have denounced him and he has fled to the US. He is currently based in California and attends the Barrabas Road Church. For anyone trying to understand the Palestinian Israeli conflict this is a must read. Ok, well hopefully I won't take too long next time to post something, keep well!

Anti-US protests - What we don't see

The current round of anti-US unrest in the Muslim world, in protests against the incendiary US-produced film, Innocence of Muslims, has been manufactured. This past week Egypt’s Grand Mufti, Ali Gomaa, openly condemned the film and its contents. His speech effectively started the ball rolling with protests first reported in Egypt and then in Libya. Gomaa is also partly responsible for fanning the flames of the 2006 Prophet Muhammed caricature unrest which led to protests and attacks on Danish embassies across the globe. The political forces in Egypt, notably Muhammad Mursi, the current president, and the second largest Islamist party, al-Nour, have attempted to hijack this growing anti-Western sentiment for their own gain. They have called for mass protests. This issue now threatens to snowball further as conservative Islamist groups from Morocco to Bangladesh call for similar anti-US demonstrations today. The film itself is an insult to every film maker on the planet. It is poorly made and produced and its screenplay is banal and void of any logical progression. That this came to spark the level of opposition in the Muslim world, clearly indicates a hidden hand and ulterior motive.

Coordinated bombings and shootings across Iraq on Sunday

Suicide bombers and gunmen attacked numerous targets across Iraq on Sunday killing over 100 people. The attacks coincided with the sentencing of Vice President al-Hashimi on terrorism charges. He received the death sentence. The two incidents would appear to be connected. Hashimi is a Sunni Muslim politician who has strong links with Sunni political parties in the country. The attacks were in all likelihood committed by al-Qaeda in Iraq, a Sunni group, which is attempting to incite sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis. By attacking during the sentencing it is sending a strong message to the government and raising tensions significantly between Shiites, who were the most frequently targeted on Sunday, and their Sunni brethren.

US Naval positions

The incredibly useful US naval update from Stratfor was released on 5 September and has some rather interesting info. There are currently two carrier groups in the Persian Gulf, the Dwight D Eisenhower and Enterprise while the Big Deck Amphibiouswarfare ship, Iwo Jima, is cruising off the Yemeni coastline. There has been talk of a major US-led naval wargame in the Persian Gulf in September and an increase in naval military activity in this region is anticipated. This is all part of a larger game being played between the West, Israel and Iran over the latters nuclear development program. The US is keen to show its military might to coerce Iran into acceding to IAEA regulations and demands to inspect its nuclear sites. Iran has responded by announcing its own war games. . . Game on.

Rising prices and unrest

The increasing price of petrol remains a mystery to me. Why does it increase? What are the mechanisms involved? My general understanding is that a portion of the price is for local taxes and levies and the other is linked to the oil price. Thus fluctuations in the price and changes in the exchange rates would impact the cost. Easy enough, yet why do government's allow the price to fluctuate so? In some parts of the world even minor adjustments can cause significant social unrest and undermine the authority of the government. The West Bank is starting to feel the pinch at the moment and over the past two days protests and transport strikes have affected the territory widely leading Mahmoud Abbas to proudly announce at the Arab League Summit in Cairo on Wedensday that the Palestinian Spring had begun - a reference to the Arab Spring of 2011. Questions aside what is clear is that the following theorem can be used to determine unrest. Petrol price increase = Unrest increase + political instability. We should expect a few more countries in the region and in Asia, in particular, to begin to experience demonstrations soon. On a more forward thinking note one can but wonder if this is all sustainable. Clearly it is not. The population of the world is increasing. Oil is dwindling, we are told, and prices of nearly every commodity are sky-rocketing while unemployment is increasing. A rocky road ahead indeed.

The weekend that was

With most Muslims commemorating Eid al-Fitr, the end of Ramadan, yesterday and today, one would expect there to be an air of peace and celebration in the Middle East. Unfortunately, this is not the case in 2012. In Yemen, a crazed gunmen killed nine worshippers at a mosque in al-Dhale on Sunday while suspected Islamist militants attacked security forces targets in Aden killing 21 on Saturday and pro-government militia in Mudiya killing on Sunday one. Fighting also continued in Syria, including in the capital, Damascus, while two car bombs detonated and three more bombs, including two IEDs and one car bomb, were defused in Tripoli, Libya. In Lebanon, a spate of kidnappings threatens to unravel the security situation in the restive state. Since last Wednesday dozens of Syrian nationals have been abducted by Lebanese clans and militant groups in response to the kidnapping of Lebanese nationals in Syria. The abductions have led five Gulf States to withdraw their citizens from the country. The upsurge in violence has not made global headlines and continues to fall below the radar of most media. In South Africa, the MENA region rarely gets a mention. While local news is important the media should appreciate that we live in a global village and information pertinent to global affairs, while not immediately relevant to local audiences, should be covered.

MENA region summary

Libya's interim executive authority, the National Transitional Council (NTC), is expected to transfer power to the popularly elected General National Congress (GNC) on 8 August. The GNC will inherit a stabilizing state; however, will continue to be faced by a number of internal political and security challenges, particularly the ongoing violence between opposing ethnic and tribal groupings and a spike in apparent Islamist extremist attacks over the past four months.

Egyptian reaction to the 5 August Jihadist attack on its military forces in Rafah is expected to be strong. Egypt has requested permission from Israel to deploy additional forces to the Sinai to combat the growing Islamist militant threat. Israel is likely to agree to the measure.

Syria's security woes continue. Fighting is impacting on most of the country and the regime is in position to launch a major military assault on Aleppo. In the embattled northern city approximately 20,000 military units are poised to strike against 6-8,000 rebels. Ahead of the planned offensive the UN has withdrawn its workers from the city.

Iraq's political crisis continues as opponents of PM al-Maliki continue to place pressure on him. These political tensions coincide with a spike in al-Qaeda in Iraq attacks that have left hundreds dead this year.

Yemen's political stabilization remained a major success in February; however, the new Hadi-led regime continues to experience obstacles to creating a national dialogue and bringing security to the country. Bombings in urban centres and an al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula / Ansar al-Sharia resurgence in Abyan govenorate threatens to overturn recent security gains.

Bahrain continues to experience ongoing Shiite agitation and protests. Despite a downtick in reported protests low-level unrest and violence continues to affect outlying areas of the country.

Syria: Battle for Aleppo

Fighting continues to rage across Syria today as it has since early 2011. The focus currently is on Aleppo, the country's second most important city after Damascus. The Free Syrian Army and affiliate militias launched a major assault in mid-July capturing large swathes of the northern city. The rebels have exacted a heavy toll on local police, Shabiha and military forces but continue to come under fire from sporadic loyalist air and artillery attacks. The media have also been reporting on a major impending regime counter-offensive since last Thursday but this has, as yet, not materialised. The humanitarian situation in Aleppo is worsening. The UN estimates that at least 200,000 people have fled the city while thousands more are hunkered down in school halls and other safe areas. The fighting has affected supplies and there are serious concerns now of a major crisis if the siege is not lifted. Should Aleppo fall to the rebels the consequences for the regime would be severe. The FSA would gain a major foothold in the north and command the supply routes to Turkey. Aleppo also serves as a major commercial centre for the country and losing control of this city would be a body blow to the Assad regime.

Primary conflict areas in Syria

The mess in the Levant

The conflict in Syria has been raging for about 18 months and there appears to be no end in sight. The UN security Council remains dogged by persistent Chinese and Russian reluctance to condemn the Assad regime and the opposition rebel army, the FSA, has not established control over any part of the country. Its inability to capture and hold territory is a result of its technological inferiority. However, all is not lost for the rebels. With sanctions continuing to bite the pressure on the Syrian regime remains immense and as with most dictatorships the pressure is applied on one point, the leader. The possibility of a palace coup are growing daily and the possibility of a schism within the ruling Alawite clique is a scenario analysts are increasingly beginning to consider. The growing threat of a internationalisation of the conflict is also a distinct possibility. Turkey and Syria have both bolstered its military presences along the shared border following the 22 June Syrian shooting down of a Turk jet. Since then the Turk Air Force has scrambled its fighters on a number of times as Syrian helicopters and planes have repeatedly approached the shared border. There are also continuing streams of supplies and fighters moving from Lebanon into Syria. The Syrian regime will be using all of its remaining assets in Lebanon to attempt to prevent further cross-border action. These assets include intelligence operatives (so we looking at possible high level assassinations), supporters (so protest activity) and non-state militia. The conflict is entering an increasingly uncertain phase; however, common wisdom is, is that the situation is likely to worsen further before improving. 

Egyptian political system in turmoil

The Egyptian political system is in turmoil following a decision by the Supreme Court on 14 June to dissolve the popularly elected and Islamist-dominated legislature. The decision was based on the premise that the election of independents was unconstitutional given that members of political parties could stand as independents and enjoy the backing of powerful party's to the detriment of 'true' independents. The fact that this was not picked up prior to the election points to a possible conspiracy by members of the ruling military council who to date have shown a great ability in undermine any gains made by democratic forces. Following the dissolution, the SCAF issued new addendums to the interim constitution which gave it full legislative powers and additional rights over the drafting of a future constitution. The addendums also severely eroded the power of the future president, who is due to be announced on 21 June following a run-off vote on 16 and 17 June. The fate of the Egyptian revolution is hanging in the balance. With strong indications of protester fatigue and a possible reluctance on the side of the Islamists to directly challenge the powerful military the new Egyptian democratic model is in serious jeopardy. 

Massacres in Syria

(Inset - One victim out of 80 after Alawite Muslim massacre of Sunni civilians in the villages of al-Kubeir and Maarzaf on 6 June) Viewing Youtube clips of Syrian massacre victims is at once shocking and sadly, enlightening. While the general media present statistics to update the world on the violence in the country real footage of the war is a stark reminder that urgency is required to end the massacre of civilians and the avoidable conflict between a poorly equipped rebel force and the regime. The UN has done precious little to end the war. Rather it has played its usual game of denouncing and imposing sanctions. Its inability to effect real change has also (again) shown how useless the organization is if one or, in this case, two major Security Council members, refuse to ok stronger action. Yet what can one do? The UN is, at least, doing what it has been mandated to do. But what of other states, even those unconnected to the conflict? What of South Africa? Brazil? India? Where are these powers? While the conflict has not impacted on any countries outside of the Levant it has stained humanity’s history and one can but hope that change for the better will come soon.

Bahrain's slide into uncertainty

Thinking about Bahrain I can’t help but feel disenchanted by the way the political process is unfolding. Shiites, who account for the majority of the population, have been agitating for greater political representation and power that reflects their position for years. In the past year and a half their plight has been broadcast globally as foreign media focused on countries affected by the Arab Spring. In early 2011, the Shiites launched a major campaign in Manama to demand political reforms. The regime acted harshly and called in Saudi military muscle to quash the protest movement. The resultant violence radicalized the Shiite movement considerably and polarized the state even further. The Sunni minority ruling class is still holding on to power but how long can it maintain its hegemony now that more than half of the country support the overthrow of the Sunni monarchy? End games are difficult to predict but in Bahrain’s case one can’t help but feel that without radical political change the monarchy’s days are numbered.

Thoughts on the upcoming Egyptian presidential poll

(Inset: Islamist candidate, Morsy) I'm looking ahead with interest to the forthcoming presidential election in Egypt between Islamist candidate, Mohamed Morsy and former regime stalwart, Ahmed Shafik, on 16 June. The election is viewed as the final hurdle Egypt must cross before its transition from authoritarian rule to democracy is accomplished. At least that's the way it is being presented. In reality the resignation of Mubarak in 2011 changed very little. Yes, the National Democratic Party (NDP) was banned and dismantled and Mubarak lost his job. But as Shafik's ascendancy proves, elements of the former regime remain in positions of power. The military and its special interests, the backbone of Egypt since independence, have also played a crucial role in the post-Mubarak environment. It has led the executive and is unlikely to give up its power that easily to a civilian president and even less likely to surrender it to an Islamist president. This leads us to what powers the president will have. Under the Muabarak regime the executive was the most powerful in the system. The legislature acted as a rubber stamp for decisions made by Mubarak and his inner circle. The military is unlikely to accept a new constitution (efforts are underway to formulate this) which maintains this executive power of the president or reduces the power of the military. Finally, Egypt's revolutionaries who led the charge against Mubarak during the Arab Spring feel justifiably left out. They wanted an open, secular, democratic and civilian government. What they have currently is a military dominated state with an overwhelmingly strong Islamist leaning parliament. The polarisation of Egypt is palpable and one expects will continue to characterise the landscape for some years to come.

So, "whats changed?", you ask.

Its been 18 months since the Arab Spring started - so whats changed? Simple answer. Not much. From Morocco to Iran, the 'street' has failed to bring revolution. Rather it has brought buckets of hope and promises to reform. MECASR presents the Arab Spring scorecard: Morocco - The king is still the big cheese and parliament are still lackies. Want to book a nice holiday. Morocco is the place to be. The opposition may mount some challenge in the near term. But for now, business as usual. Algeria - The ruling party successfully manipulated the recent poll and dominates the political scene. The people seem unbothered as long as food prices stay low. Tunisia - One of the few success stories. Ennahada has come to power and the old regime is pretty much gone. Libya - No Gaddafi = good. No Gaddafi = bad. With no strongman to unite this fractured country the medium term outlook remains bleak. Egypt - Its lost US$21 of its 36 billion foreign currency reserve in the past 18 months. It has a toothless parliament and still no president. Hopefully the military will give the new president some power. Hopefully Santa will give me a porsche this year. Don't hold your breathe. Yemen - Saleh is gone and Hadi is in. The country, however, is pretty much gone. The people got their wish, but without a strongman there are strong indications that this country will continue to fracture. 20 year forecast, failed state. Saudi Arabia - Thank goodness for all that oil. Iran - The Persians have a tight hold on their country and the regime looks stronger than ever. Anyone's guess what Israel and the US will do about its nukes. Serious gray zone here. Forecasting for Iran is difficult. Bahrain - Dynamite comes in small packages and in Bahrain there isn't much of it left because its all been thrown at the police. The Sunni minority are holding on and the Shiites national sport, the riot, is gaining in popularity. The Sunnis have one major card that will keep them in power...Sunni Saudi Arabia. Its still closer than Shiite Iran and until that earthquake pushes Bahrain across the Gulf, Bahrain will remain Sunni. Queue endless protesting for the rest of eternity.

Impending doom in Syria

From time to time one gets a sense of an impending event, good or bad. In this case, bad. I speak of course of Syria. Efforts by Kofi Anan, the eternal optimist, to broker a truce have failed, again. The rebels have openly withdrawn from the 12 April truce agreement and by all accounts the fighting in the country has intensified. Do not be fooled by the regime offering aid corridors to the humanitarian organisations. This, like the limited UN observer mission, is being carefully managed by Assad and his cronies who are using the simple equation of aid worker/observer in = fighting stops. Aid worker/observer out = fighting continues. Over the past two days the regime has extended its offensive in Hama and Latakia and rebels claim to have killed over 100 soldiers. Russia and China, Syria's two principle allies, are losing patience, but are unlikely to withdraw support fully. Syria, sensing its time is running out is likely to attempt something silly. An escalation in-country, fomenting chaos in Lebanon or something more rash. The breaking point is coming and its not a case of if but rather when.

Bahrain from Crisis Group

Until 2011, the tiny island nation of Bahrain was mainly known to the outside world for one thing: an annual Formula One car race, the first of its kind in the Middle East, that signified the country's arrival among the community of stable advanced nations. But then came last spring's popular uprising and brutal government crackdown, and a different side of this Gulf monarchy came to light: the longstanding grievances held by many Bahrainis, including above all members of the island's Shia majority, against its Sunni ruling family, who in turn seem prepared to use force to hold onto power. The regime prevailed, and after inviting an investigation of human rights abuses last fall, it suggested it was bringing the country back to normal; this spring's Grand Prix would show the world it had succeeded. 

But as I discovered during a five-day visit shortly before the race, nothing could be further from the truth. Talking to dozens of people both in Manama and in smaller communities outside the capital, I was told again and again that the situation was becoming worse, not better: police forces have been using large quantities of tear gas against protesters, repeatedly causing deaths; police brutality had not ended but moved from police stations to alleyways and undeclared detention centers; young activists are increasingly resorting to Molotov cocktails, subverting the peaceful nature of the protests; and the government has not opened any dialogue with the opposition or offered hope for political reform. Protests occurred nightly in Shiite villages and neighborhoods during my stay, and a veritable battle of graffiti took place on the walls of shops and houses, with protesters writing slogans calling for the end of the regime, police erasing them with a quick coat of paint, and activists scribbling new ones seemingly before the paint had dried.

And so while the Grand Prix, Bahrain's single prestige event, did take place in late April, it happened amid clouds of tear gas and wafts of smoke from firebombs, as well as an outcry over the death of a protester apparently as a result of shotgun pellets fired by riot police. On the day of the event, a political activist, Abdulhadi Alkhawaja, was into his eleventh week of a hunger strike to protest his imprisonment on allegations of plotting to overthrow the state during last year's protests. (As of this writing, the hunger strike is now in its ninetieth day.)

http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/middle-east-north-africa/iraq-iran-gulf/bahrain/hiltermann-bahrain-a-new-sectarian-conflict.aspx

Elections in Algeria

There is just over a week to go until Algerians head to the polls to elect a new parliament. The elections, which are being held on time, are a great opportunity for the regime to bolster its legitimacy and for opposition groups to increase their power to influence political reforms from within the governing structures of the state; however, to what degree the Bouteflika government will allow them to do so is yet to be tested. The government is expected to deploy 60,000 troops in the coming days to safeguard the poll. These measures are being implemented to quash unrest, particularly in the capital. A number of opposition parties and activists groups have called for a boycott of the poll and are expected to organise protests. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb has also threatened to conduct attacks during the period. During April, at least 11 incidents were reported in the north of the country. The number represented a spike in terrorist related incidents. While still low compared to previous years and largely expected (attacks increase in the warmed months) the incidents serve as a warning that the group maintains an active a deadly presence. Don’t expect AQIM to disrupt the poll significantly; however, anticipate at least one major attack, possibly in an urban setting.

Syria's unrelenting conflict

The UN’s attempts to end the fighting in Syria continue to be met with opposition from those that have, reportedly, agreed to the truce. Loyalist forces continue attacks against some dissident cities and rebels and Islamist extremists persist in attacking state security forces and facilities. The violence not only undermines the truce but also significantly erodes the UN’s image. Without a stick the carrot of a truce is unlikely to work and has been vividly displayed as useless. The Syrian regime wants to eradicate the rebels or wants the rebels to surrender and will not remove its heavy weapons from urban centres without a good reason to do so. The rebels meanwhile continue to respond to the loyalist attacks with attacks of their own. The third players, the extremists, remain outside of any agreement and are likely to continue to operate in the country for years to come. The situation in the north and south remains particularly bad and while the centre remains relatively calm one cannot help but sense that a breaking point is fast approaching.

Syria summed up in a cartoon

Monday Spin

Algeria continues to prepare for May parliamentary elections. With Islamist parties unbanned questions have been raised as to whether Algeria will follow its North African compatriots and vote for Islamic parties. Even if they do historical precedent suggests voter turnout will be low. Powers given to parliament are also limited and its ability to affect meaningful political change is unlikely. A bomb exploded in Lebanon earlier today near the Nocean restaurant in Tyre. The bomb was the most recent attack targeting a business premise that sells alcohol. The identity of the attackers is not known; however, suspicion has fallen on Islamist militants. Conflict continues in southern Yemen. In the past 24 hours government air strikes have killed at least 18 militants in Abyan governorate. The attacks form part of President Hadi’s renewed offensive in the south to retake Zinjibar, which was captured by Islamist militants in May 2011. Israel issued a terror warning for the South Sinai, Egypt, over the weekend. The warning was largely ignored by Israelis vacationing in the area. Israel regularly issues such warnings; however, there have been no major attacks since 2006. Nonetheless, a high threat still exists. The Bahrain Grand Prix concluded without major incident on Sunday. Attempts by the Shiite political opposition to disrupt the event failed due to the heavy security in place for the event. Further demonstrations are planned for Monday. Mecasr are watching with interest the recent spat between Egypt and Israel. Egypt cancelled a gas supply deal to Israel over the weekend in a move some commentators have called a threat to the 1979 peace treaty between the two states. The move is likely linked to repeated (at least 14) bombings of the pipeline by suspected Islamist militants over the past year and pressure from the Islamist-dominated government to cut ties with Israel.

Bloodshed in Syria as ceasefire fails

Despite a ceasefire on 12 April, the Syrian regime has continued its offensive against rebel positions in Idlib, Homs and Daraa. At least 77 people have been killed over the past two days in these areas in incident that clearly highlight the contempt with which the Syrian government view the international community – it also starkly underscores the UN’s inability to enforce change in the country due to the continued veto of Russia and China to stringent sanctions regimens. Rebels meanwhile appear to have halted offensive operations (whether they had these in the first place is questionable) and seem to be waiting for better days. Sunni extremists also continue to flood the country from Iraq and Jordan. The outlook for Syria remains largely negative. While UN observers were deployed to the country on 15 April these elements remain in Damascus, an area that has experienced very little conflict. It remains to be seen whether they will be allowed to move to Homs and Idlib in the north. Given recent precedent (Arab League monitoring mission in early 2012) the regime is unlikely to allow any outsiders into conflict prone areas until it has fully sanitised dissident hotspots.

Egypt: SPEC upholds decision to bar leading presidential candidates

Egypt's Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC)has officially upheld a decision to disqualify Khairat El-Shater, Omar Suleiman and Salafist preacher Hazem Abu-Ismail from the forthcoming May presidential elections. The decision will serve to increase political tensions further following a fortnight of increased competition between rival groupings. The move is a major boost for Amr Mousa and Islamist moderate, Abdel Moneim Abol Fotouh, who are now well placed to assume the leading position in the state. The supporters of the disqualified candidates are likely to escalate protests in the coming days, particularly in Cairo. Abu Ismail's supporters in particular are likely to remain at the SPEC headquarters in Heliopolis, Cairo, where they have been based for a number of days already. The youth activists meanwhile are expected to gather in central Cairo on Friday to press for greater political reforms. The current ruling SCAF military council are expected to bear the brunt of their criticism; however, the edge is likely to be taken off after the SCAF moved against Suleiman, a former Mubarak era spy chief, and Shater of the Muslim Brotherhood. Youth activists have been particularly critical of the candidature of these two men.

Twists and turns in Egypt

Egypt's Islamist-dominated People's Assembly approved a law on 12 April which effectively bans members of the former regime, specifically the National Democratic Party, from participating in the upcoming May presidential election. The law was proposed and ratified in under a week and highlights the concern Islamist have with the candidature of Omar Suleiman, one time Mubarak era intelligence chief and vice president, who on 8 April declared his intention to stand for president. While the People's Assembly has passed the bill for it to become law the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), the current holders of executive power, still need to approve it. The SCAF are viewed as an ally of Suleiman; however, whether they will openly challenge Islamist parties over the issue is unlikely. If they were to do so, relations between the two would sour considerably and a return to instability in the interim would be likely. The SCAF will also be watching with interest the planned Islamist protests in Cairo on Friday. Should the protests have a major turnout the Islamist cause would be severely boosted. Should it attract small numbers the SCAF may be emboldened to openly challenge the Islamist's proposed law.

Egypt's constitution drafting assembly suspended by State Council

The State Council Administrative Court took the step of suspending the Constituent Assembly (CA) on 10 April. The assembly, which was dominated by Islamists, was tasked with formulating a new constitution for the country. The interim constitution will remain the primary legal document until the CA is reconstituted. It is not known when this body will reconvene. The CA had come under severe pressure from secularists, youth activists and leftists recently for being overly dominated by Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist figures with dissenting groups fearing the implementation of Sharia Law. The decision to suspend the CA is likely to be well received by the dissenters; however, Islamist reaction is likely to be strong and protests by these groups over the suspension are possible. Mass action is unlikely, however, as Islamists are keen to present the independence of the judiciary and other arms of government amid ongoing allegations that they are attempting to concentrate power. The Muslim Brotherhood recently nominated two men to run for president reneging on an earlier promise not to nominate anyone.

A brief look at the Egyptian presidential elections

The presidential election in Egypt in May will have massive consequences for the country and the region. Should an Islamist candidate win a period of increased tensions is likely between the civilian government and the military, which has, to date, played a major role in guiding the country through the political transition. Egypt's relations with Israel would also be affected and the Egyptian government is likely to take a much more involved stance on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict potentially bringing it into direct conflict with the Jewish state. Should a former regime personality win the poll Egypt should expect a period of protracted instability. Omar Suleiman, a leading candidate and the former vice president and intelligence chief, is viewed as a military ally and is widely distrusted by the Islamist-dominated parliament and the revolutionary/youth groups, groups which agitated for the end to military rule in 2011. Should he win, the relationship with Israel would improve as he is likely to maintain the current pleasant relations with the Jewish state. Amr Moussa appears to be a candidate around which many divergent groups could agree. While he is a former regime member, having served as the country's foreign minister, he is widely respected and was appointed Arab League secretary-general in 2001. His links to the former regime and his national prestige could act to stabilize the country; however, it remains to be seen whether he can generate sufficient support or following in a country where politics is dominated by Islamist groups.

Libya's domestic concerns

Libya faces a number of domestic challenges to its current fragile stability. These include:

• Ongoing rivalry between ethnic groupings in Zwara, Sabha and Tibu which has resulted in open conflict recently.
• The presence of militias in major cities, including Tripoli and Benghazi, which continue to spark protests.
• Separatist sentiment in the Cyrennaica region.
• Increasing domestic frustration over service delivery issues, including garbage collection, in its major cities.
• Inability of the government's security forces to enforce security over the entire country.
• Reported presence of large numbers of al-Qaeda / Islamist militants in the east, particularly in Derna.
• Porous borders which have allowed smuggling to flourish.

The current NTC-led government needs to address each of these issues and hold successful elections in mid-2012 in order to preserve the fragile stability and ensure the state's medium-term existence.

A word on Libya

Southern Libya is a desert and barren area save one major factor, the presence of oil and tribes with strong links to the land. In the past two months one tribe in particular has made regional headlines for its continuing battle with the authorities. The tribe in question is the Tibu, a semi-nomadic grouping which is based in southern Libya and northern Chad. In February, Tibu tribesmen fought a series of battles with Zwai tribal gunmen in Kufra leaving 100 people dead. The fighting, which erupted over control of smuggling routes, was followed by clashes in Sabha on 25 to 29 March (ongoing) between Tibu and Abu Seif tribesmen following a local dispute. This is not the first occasion such violence has occurred. The tribe has clashed with the Libyan central authority in the past. In 2008, it fought battles in Kufra with Zawi tribesmen and the al-Gaddafi security forces after the government initiated a process of discrimination against them. The tension with the local Zwai was further exacerbated by an influx of Tibu refugees from Chad into the Kufra area. Tensions remain elevated and continue to rest on Libyan government distrust of the darker skinned Tibu, the Tibu's strong links to Chad (where a number of ex-al-Gaddafi loyalists are currently based) and long standing grievances over past conflicts. The current round of fighting is unlikely to be the last as at least one local Tibu leader has called for secession. 

Post-Arab Spring malaise

The Middle East is entering the post-Arab Spring period in a daze of dashed hopes and declining economic performance. The well-spring of optimism that change would bring about a better life has been replaced with despair as the realities of the global economy and power of the entrenched political elite become ever more stark. Nowhere is this reality more evident than in Yemen where a political transition from Saleh to Hadi is simply a change of advertising. Hadi, a regime acolyte for many years, leads a government and a state that remains filled with Saleh family members and loyalists. Saleh himself also remains head of the ruling GPC and is expected to way in heavily in government policy in the short-term. Economically, the country is shattered. Tribes continue to hit pipelines in the east disrupting what little oil is being pumped out while civil war in the north, south and east continues to sap central government resources. The reality of the post-Arab Spring Middle East is also evident in Egypt. Poverty and unemployment are rife and impact on most Egyptian families. Butane gas shortages result in long queues while access to other basic commodities for millions is largely dependent on government handouts. Political change has come but for what? What Egypt requires is a dynamic and revolutionary government - at present it has an Islamist dominated parliament that is too scared to take on the military and a military that does not want its privileged position affected. Bleak times ahead indeed for the Pharaohs. But its not all doom and gloom. Its snowing in the Levant and Bahrain just beat Indonesia 10-0 in a World Cup qualifier.