Iran - Saudi - Intrigue!

There are growing indications that Iran may be pushing for a greater role or an intensification in the northern Yemen conflict. According to Iranian media, a top Iranian general has recently asked for permission to attack the Yemeni and Saudi embassies in Tehran. This is in all likelihood, fantasy. Other information suggests that Iran may be sending "advisors" to Yemen to assist the rebels. This seems the more likely of the two reports that have recently surfaced. Already Iran's funding and supply of the rebels has been affected by a Saudi and Yemen naval blockade of Saada and Iran is keen to reopen these channels to intensify a war that is increasingly looking like dragging Saudi Arabia, a Iranian challenger in the region, into a drawn out campaign. How they go about doing this is the hard part. With no way to directly enter the state Iran is looking towards other methods, the advisors in particular. Mecasr continue this developing conflict with great interest.

Open season for Spanish nationals?

Three Spanish nationals working for the humanitarian aid group, Barcelona- Accio Solidaria, where kidnapped by gunmen near the Mauritanian town of Chelkhett Legtouta on the road between Nouadhibou and the capital, Nouakchott on Sunday. The incident, which has not been claimed, is somewhat of a rarity in the north west African state which has not experienced many abductions in recent years. The prime suspects in this case are undoubtedly al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), the local al-Qaeda affiliated franchise. The group, which has carried out half a dozen attacks against locals and foreigners in the country in the past year, has a growing presence in the wider region and is posing a growing threat to local states keen to project an image of security to foreign investors. At the moment the aid workers remain unaccounted for and the local security forces have been dispatched to the area to search for the group. The likelihood that they will be recovered is diminishing with every passing hour due to the sheer enormity of the possible land area that needs to be searched. The abductors, if they escape the dragnet, will most likely take refuge in central or northern Mauritania or along the border with the Western Sahara before demanding a ransom payment from the Spanish government. If this happens the state will probably pay. Earlier in the month the Spanish government paid two million pounds Sterling for the release of 36 Spanish seamen kidnapped by pirates off Somalia. This policy has been criticised by the UK and other Western governments, who refuse to pay ransoms for the release of their nationals. This payment has likely sent a strong message to prospective kidnappers "Open season for Spaniards". Our message to Spanish citizens in North Africa - consider a vacation back to the homeland.

Election timetable out the window in Iraq

The January 2010 timeline for the Iraqi general elections is looking like a distinct impossibility at the moment as opposing sides continue to bicker over power sharing agreements in any future Iraqi government. Bickering between Kurds (who want greater autonomy in the north and control of Kirkuk), Sunnis (who feel left out of the political process all together) and the majority Shiite (who continue to fight among themselves) are the greatest obstacles at the moment. Making matters worse is the rise in violence over the past few months that has seen Iraq's major cities being struck by wave after wave of devastating suicide and car bombings. The Sunni tribal elements who long gave refuge to Sunni extremists groups (read al-Qaeda) are also beginning to doubt the willingness of the Shiite majority to allow them into the mainstream after they were made promises that they would be incorporated into the state fold if they rid their territories of the insurgents. They have kept their side of the bargain but are beginning to think that they were suckered into a deal before anything concrete was forthcoming from the central government. As for the US troops, currently getting fatter in their bases outside of the primary urban centres, no one seems to know when or how they will be pulled out of a country that is no where near able to provide security for its own civilians. The cost in American lives has dropped due to the recent withdrawal of US troops from the towns however the financial cost of staying in Iraq continues to drain the American taxpayer. It is becoming increasingly likely that the poll will be further delayed barring any miraculous election deal. MECASR continues to watch developments with great interest.

Massive car bombs in Baghdad

Two massive car bombs near government buildings in Baghdad and 700 casualties later, have left local residents asking questions about the ability of the local police to provide adequate security to civilians. The attacks occurred during peak hour traffic in the early morning of Sunday morning (the equivalent of Monday in Western nations) and left a swathe of destruction in the immediate blast zone destroying vehicles, buildings and water pipes. When Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki arrived later in the day with the media's video cameras central Baghdad was painted red with the blood of its victims and the rubble of the earlier attack remained strewn around the streets in a Stalingradish type fresco. The attacks were timed to coincide with the meeting of a number of senior leaders in the country who were set to meet to iron out disputes surrounding the January election. It is highly likely that Sunni extremists (read al-Qaeda) used this opportunity to send a clear message to the political parties that they will do everything in their power to ensure that the poll is delayed and or does not proceed. If this were to happen it is possible that sectarian violence may well again resume in a country that is battling to recover from nearly eight years of continuous conflict.

 

Video of the attack (Al-Jazeera)

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=laAcKdMp-cw

The Saudis finally get involved

Mecasr received word that Saudi border troops and Shiite rebels in northern Yemen came to blows along the shared border yesterday. The news is not surprising as tensions between the predominantly Sunni Saud and Shiite rebel group, the Believing Youth, are at an all time low following allegations that Saudi Arabia is funding the Yemeni government's war effort against the rebels. Details of the attack aren't clear; however, from what we have been able to stitch together it seems that the Saudis were constructing a border fence in the area and that locals objected to it saying it would hurt their commercial activities. In fact the Saudis are publicly planning to build hundreds of kilometers of fencing along their border with Iraq and Yemen shortly and this may be the start of that construction period, sped up because of the recent outbreak in hostilities in Yemen (the Yemen government launched Operations Scorched Earth on 11 August). The violence yesterday left dozens of casualties according to PressTV the Shiite Iranian media website. News from the Yemenis and Saudis is scant and we are unlikely to get any further clarity from them any time soon so concerned are they with their image in the West regarding human rights. Mecasr expect that more such incidents may be reported (or occur and go unreported) in the short term while the battle for supremacy in northern Yemen goes on. Rebel elements are unlikely to directly target Saudi officials because they are already fully stretched against the Yemeni Army - we can expect a few cross border potshots, however.

ICG report on Iraq

The International Crisis Group have just released a very good report on the situation in Iraq's embattled northern Ninawa governorate. Anyone interested in knowing more about the conflict should definitely check it out:

 

"[Ninawa provides fertile ground for the Sunni insurgency which is]...fuelled by the governorate’s strong Arabist, military and (Sunni) religious tradition and propelled by growing anti-Kurdish and anti-Shiite resentment. Groups taking up arms against U.S. troops and Kurdish fighters exploited the long, often unguarded Syrian border and a history of cross-border trade, while finding ready recruits among former officers, Baathists and an increasingly destitute youth to impose their rule over predominantly Sunni Arab areas. From 2003 to 2008, Ninewa appeared caught between Kurdish dominance and Sunni insurgents."

 

The full report is available here http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6318&l=1

Southern Yemen aflame

With all the focus on typhoons and earthquakes in the Pacific there has been scant media coverage of the unrest that is currently engulfing southern and northern Yemen. While much has been written about the armed conflict in the north by MECASR in recent months the southern issue has received only passing interest. Over the past three days southerners alligned to the Southern Movement, a group of southern parties and civil groups opposed to the continued economic and political marginalisation of southern Yemen by the north, have staged numerous demonstrations and protests, clashing with security forces in Lajhij and Abyan governorates on a number of occassions. Dozens of people have been wounded in the unrest. The protesters have also taken to attacking government installations and removing Yemen flags replacing them with the former Southern Yemen flag in places where the government has only a limited presence (the north and south fought a brief civil war in the early 1990s following unification of the two states). The central government has since deployed additional troops to the south to quell the uprising - focusing its efforts on the towns of Zinjibar and Habilyan, the worst affected centres. We can expect further violence in coming days. If the Southern Movement decide to proceed with their activities it will come at a particular good time as the central government is distracted by fighting rebels in the northern Saada governorate. Game on.

Afghan quagmire and solutions

NATO's recent offensive in southern Afghanistan has clearly failed. The Taleban have done what everyone, except the American commanders realised, they simply relocated to the mountains and in the timeless Afghan tradition will wait out the foreign invaders. The question for US-led NATO now is, now what? Numerous exit strategies have been presented such as defeating the Taleban militarily and co-opting local tribal groups; however, Obama summed it up recently when he said there was no quick fix and the US would need to spend a great deal of time in the country. Mecasr has been thinking about possible end-games of late and has come up with a few suggestions:

 

1. Divide the country up into three countries and cede some Pushtun areas along the Pakistan border to Pakistan. Too much investment has gone into Kabul while its extremities are racked by conflict, tribalism and ethnic distrust. Giving people their own state is the only solution. As we saw with Korea and Japan, homogenous societies are quite capable of developing - ethnic rivalries are the primary point of contestation in states from Africa to Asia where the democratic model has failed.

 

2. Centre all NATO forces on the three main cities, Kandahar, Herat and Kabul and the transport routes. Leave the Taleban in their mountain strongholds.

 

3. Reform the state. Corruption is rampant. Get rid of the riff raff and start again. Karzai must go.

 

4. Include Iran and other neighbouring states in the internal security of the state. NATO can't do it alone.

Major setback for rebels in northern Yemen

If the Shiite rebels based in the north of Yemen didn't know, they do now. There forces are superiorly inferior to the Yemeni army. An attack by hundreds of rebels supported by captured armoured vehicles against government targets in the embattled Saada City yesterday was a spectacular failure. It is believed that the rebels were aiming to catch the army off guard (the army having recently announced a ceasefire to coincide with Eid) and capture the presidential palace. Instead the rebels lost over 140 men in a major setback for the group. It is believed that as soon as the rebel advance was noticed Yemeni airstrikes were called in and quickly turned the battle. It is surprising that mere days after a Yemeni airforce airstrike killed 87 refugees in an Amran camp that the rebels would attempt to strike without air cover or support. A simple battlefield blunder has cost the rebels a real chance to swing the war in their favour and may lead to them accepting ceasefire terms soon.

Quds, Holocaust denial and unrest - Just another day in Iran

The annual al-Quds rallies in Iran in support of Palestinians have descended into a massive anti-government protest. Tens of thousands of opposition supporters have used the events to indicate their support for one of the losing presidential candidates, Mousavi, in the recently held June 09 elections. The support has, however, been met with a swift police crackdown and there are unconfirmed reports of small scale clashes between police and citizens across Tehran - mirroring similar violence following the disputed June elections. Amid all of this fresh unrest President Ahmadinejad spewed the usual anti-Israeli rhetoric to a receptive audience of party apparatchiks at the Tehran University, claiming (again) that the Holocaust was a myth created by the West and Israel to justify the occupation of Palestinian lands. Mecasr are watching developments closely and with great interest. The question on everyone's minds now is "can the opposition sustain the protests?" The answer is probably not but one never knows. The 1979 revolution came as a surprise to the Shah, but then again only his mother and Jimmy Carter loved him. In Iran today there enough people to prop up the regime.

The Night of Power

Muslims across the world will commemorate the Night of Power or Laylat al-Qadr either today or tomorrow night. It is widely beleived that this is the night that the Angel Gabriel revealed the Holy Quran to the Prophet Muhammad. The Quran purportedly states that the night is better than a thousand months. For fundamentalists and extremists the occassion is (incorrectly) believed to increase the browny points you receive in the after life if you martyr yourself. Keep an eye on Middle Eastern states and US Embassies tonight.

 

Islamist group claims rocket "barrage"

The Ziad al-Jarrah division of the Abdullah Azzam Brigades, an al-Qaeda linked group, claimed responsibility today for the firing of two rockets into northern Israel last week. The rockets, which landed in an open area and did not cause any damage or casualties, stirred the IDF into action, which levelled a grassy knoll in southern Lebanon in violent retribution....stop press...The action is unlikley to lead to any serious deterioration in relations between Lebanon and Israel which are already at an all time low and it will take far more to stir the IDF into retaliating as it did in 2006. It will also require the IDF to be ready to retaliate. At the moment it may have the capability, but not the political backing. The action would need to be far more significant, perhaps a kidnapping or an incursion inside Israeli territory. Mecasr continues to monitor.

Rockets fired into northern Israel

Explosions have been reported near Israel's northern border with Lebanon. It is believed that militants fired two rockets from a village in Hezbollah dominated southern Lebanon into the Nahariya region. There have been no reports of damage or casualties. The Israeli army have responded with artillery fire towards the source of the rocket fire. This is the first time rockets have been fired into Israel since the beginning of 2008 and the 2006 Hezbollah - Israel conflict. Mecasr is monitoring.

1984 in 2009

It's a tough old time for reformists in Iran at present. Following the disputed presidential polls and anti-government unrest in June there were overly optimistic hopes that the Guardian Council or the Supreme Leader (yes you heard right...) would perhaps overturn the election or at least stage a show recount of ballots that officially declared incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as president for a second five year term. Alas, no. Ahmadinejad (pictured here pointing at and chastising members of the Tehran knitting club) was declared winner and last week had his new cabinet approved by the Supreme Leader (really cool name that) which has helped him regain his momentum to pursue his conservative policies (and chase down those that opposed him in the aftermath of the June poll). Yesterday some website reported that Alireza Hosseini Beheshti, a leading opposition figure and ally of the guy a lot of Tehranians think should have won the poll (Mousavi), was recently arrested by the authorities on orders from Tehran's prosecutor - no doubt a firm Ahmadinejad supporter. Former Tehran mayor, Morteza Alviri, has also felt the wrath of the local militia and is currently enjoying his Persian Pasti in a local gaol. Further arrests are likely. But what's behind it, really? Well, the guys arrested have been leading an opposition committee in investigating abuses by the authorities during the June/July unrest that they say left 70 people dead (the government say 26). They also accuse the security forces of abuse, ranging from the standard torture to rape. Clearly, these chaps haven't read Orwell's 1984 or have and are looking to supplement their diet with Iranian prison biscuits. What is clear is that the government will become more brazen in the weeks and months to come. They have the backing of the big wigs and the Supreme Leader (really cool title) and hold one enormous grudge. Reformists beware.

Yemen's decidedly bleak future - Cake and Armageddon

Yemen remains in the grip of a bloody internal power struggle. Since 11 August, Yemeni troops backed by their tribal allies have engaged the Shiite Zaidi Houthi rebels in fierce battles across the impoverished and mountainous northern Yemen in the aptly named Scorched Earth operation. The battles have claimed dozens of lives and displaced thousands more. In the primary urban centre, Saada City, thousands of civilians are without power and water and food supplies are running low - this state of affairs led the government to announce a ceasefire on Friday so as to allow aid groups access to the governorate and assist those worst affected. The ceasefire, according to state media, lasted only a few hours and was finally rejected on Saturday when Houthi rebels reportedly massacred a group of women and children in a remote northern village. The claim by the government should be taken with a pinch of salt of course and is most likely propaganda, used to stir up popular support for the army's war effort in the north. Then again the Shiite rebels are certainly not what one would call Peace Corps material and a massacre or two can not be put past them. Heavy fighting continued yesterday around Saada City with Yemeni armoured columns surrounding the Old City in Saada, a rebel stronghold. The fighting has raised concerns, yet again, that Yemen may be descending, yet again, into complete anarchy and failed state status. Such declarations of doom are made regularly when discussing Yemen. Separatist sentiment in the south, persistent tribal and clan violence and the growing presence of the routed Saudi Arabian al-Qaeda branch in the country's lawless eastern provinces are often mentioned as precursors to Armageddon in the southern Arabian Peninsula. We at Mecasr believe that these issues are secondary to the real problem in Yemen - the political system is the real issue. Racked by corruption and propped up by an unstable patronage system, the Yemeni polity is one disaster short of a complete collapse. The GPC, the ruling party, has dominated Yemeni politics since unification in the early 90s and is led by the iron willed but ageing Ali Saleh (sounds decidedly like North Korea, Libya, Niger, Zimbabwe…etc etc). This volatile mix of political exclusionism and rise of popular discontent have created a deadly mix of revolutionary cake of which Marie Antoinette would be proud. Naturally it is up to the people themselves if they wish to take a bite.

Settlements, peace and Benji

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin "pull the wool over your eyes" Netenyahu has approved the building of a score of houses in the West Bank ahead of a potential freeze on settlements of 6-9 months to allow for peace negotiations. This has been done to ease the pressure he faces from those within his government to allow settlements and from the Americans and Palestinians (the Fatah lot, not Hamas) who want him to stop. Yet, any thinking person must agree that at the end of the day there will be more settlements not less just so that in a month's time the Israelis can say "look we have frozen all settlements". To any thinking person, this is an outrage. The settlements must be frozen immediately. Some if not most of them should be removed and the whole of the West Bank should be amalgamated into a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital. It is only fair. Israel may be the chosen people in the bible, but the nation has long since given up any right to the land it currently occupies, in my opinion. Its people certainly should be allowed to live there, but if it wishes to be part of the great democratic world it must allow all of its citizens (including Palestinians in the Gaza and West Bank) to vote. If it doesn't want this it must leave these territories alone and remove all of its interests there. Agree/disagree? Post a comment.

Waving despots away, not this year.

Yet another African despot has banned term limits and set his goal on immortality; however, this time round our sub-Saharan banana republics aren't to blame. Tunisia, that jewel in the desert, the final resting place of Rommel's Afrika Korps and land of equal opportunity has sprouted yet another unsurprising declaration on the disinterested world by allowing its ageing and much loved ruler, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali to to stand for another term in presidential elections on 25 October. Watchers of Tunisia politics (basically three guys at a college in Harvard) will remember that Ali won the previous elections with 95% of the vote. A remarkable figure even for a demi-god. Yet the win and the muted response from the Tunisians themselves is interesting. Do they in fact like Ali more than democracy? Has the West got it wrong? Perhaps democracy isn't for everyone...Recent events in Mauritania, Niger and Guinea uphold the strong belief that locals don't mind a strong man, in fact they encourage it. Or perhaps the fact that your family will be prosecuted and tortured is motivation enough for someone to support a strong man....all unanswered questions...Mecasr watches with interest.

The rise of Iran's proxy?

Succession politics seems to be the flavour of the month in the Middle East this century with yet another son taking over from a deceased Dad. Ammar al-Hakim (shown above sporting a spiffy black number), son of Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, has taken control of the powerful Iraqi political party, Supreme Islamic Iraq Council (SIIC). The SIIC has close ties to Iran and is one of the most powerful political bodies in Iraq. It also leads a Shiite coalition in Iraq, which is being tipped to win the upcoming 2010 general elections, this despite the recent withdrawal of Nouri al-Maliki's (the current prime minister) Dawa party. If this were to happen, Iran would have a powerful stake in Iraqi politics - something it has yearned for since the creation of the Iraqi state. This would have deep implications for Iraq's Kurd and Sunni populations, particularly if any new Shiite coalition took steps to sideline them with regard to oil revenue. To date the SIIC has played ball and talk from Ammar is that unity and Iraqi interests will come first. Unfortunately for Ammar, such words are largely empty and have been used by dictators in the region for generations. Ammar's succession also hints at oligarchy and nepotism and as all us good democrats know, such things are bad, real bad.

Iraq on fire

As if we didn't know they still existed, Sunni extremists conducted a wave of bombings across northern Iraq today leaving dozens dead and wounded. The attacks targeted civilians and policemen. The pressure is mounting on the Iraqi authorities in the wake of the 30 June US pullout from urban centres. The Maliki administration must get a grip on the violence soon to prevent a further deterioration in the security situation and a further decline in the public's trust in the ability of the authorities to protect the ordinary man. There are also fears that Iran, which has now put its house in order following the election unrest, may be planning further instability in the country. Mecasr will be watching developments closely in the coming weeks.

Nokia or Samsung? Saudis cell phone menace

Prince Nayef, Saudi deputy Interior Minister, received a shock last night when a "suicide bomber" entered his palatial estate in Jeddah and detonated a mobile phone. The "suicide bomber" was the only casualty and Prince Nayef was shown on local TV a while later in good spirits. The "attack" was claimed by the deviant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, a group which has come under severe pressure from Nayef in recent years. Nayef has been credited with the recent offensives against AQ and the government's success in curtailing the group's presence in the kingdom. Indeed, the latest attack seems to underscore how far AQ has fallen in the kingdom. No elaborate car bombing or shooting attack, but rather a mobile phone. Security was probably incredibly tight around the prince, but one must wonder how a group that was able to fly commercial aircraft into the two towers in New York and has successfully accomplished hundreds of VBIED, IED and EEP attacks in Iraq, could only manage a mobile phone detonation. So get your bags packed, Saudi is safe and a great place to get a tan. Book now.

STOP PRESS: UNIFIL mandate extended in Lebanon

The United Nations extended UNIFIL's mandate in southern Lebanon for another year yesterday in a move that is likely to lead to absolutely nothing. The peacekeeping force, which number approximately 12,000, was deployed in the area following the cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. It was deployed to monitor the ceasefire and lead the disarmament of the Hezbollah militia. While UNIFIL has accomplished some positives its primary mission, particularly in the field of landmine clearance, its most important mission to disarm the militia has failed miserably. In fact not only has Hezbollah rearmed it has also surpassed its 2006 rocket arsenal number. With approximately 40,000 crude to sophisticated rockets ready to use, the groundwork for a future war has been laid. If the group were a non-governmental group which was fighting for a 'homeland' or 'greater cause' the group's presence in southern Lebanon could be justified. However, Hezbollah maintains prominent position with the current Lebanese government and despite calls from Lebanese citizens (the majority I might add) for them to disarm and leave security in the hands of the Lebanese Army, they have flatly refused to do so and even trained their weapons on Lebanese themselves who attempted to disarm the group (May 2008 comes to mind). The United Nations continues to show how empty it is and that its ability to enforce resolutions is limited. We await Israel/Hezbollah round II.  

Yemen conflict: Picture tells a story...

A video grab released by the Houthi rebel group August 26, 2009 shows a member of the group leaving an armoured personnel carrier seized from the army during the ongoing operation on their strongholds in northwestern Yemen. The rebels said on Wednesday they had held off an attack by government forces in a northern province that has seen heavy fighting in recent days. Banner on the vehicle reads "Death to America, death to Israel, a curse on the Jews, victory to Islam." - Reuters

Flashpoints and Ramadan

A strange quiet has descended across the usually manic Middle East this week. States from Morocco to Iran are commemorating the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, a period during which Muslims fast during the day times and business activity is partly suspended. The quiet has given us some time to identify potential conflict flashpoints in the coming months. Here are a few for your reading pleasure:

 

Iraq: The conflict in Iraq is ongoing despite what the US administration may have us believe. Suicide bombings have taken a heavy toll in Baghdad recently and an attack targeting a civilian bus near Kut yesterday underscored the ongoing threat to civilians and foreigners. Challenges to the Maliki regime are also starting to gather ahead of the January 2010 general elections. The election is likely to be fiercely contested and any further gains for Shiite parties is likely to egg on Sunni extremists even further. Expect more of the same in the coming months.

 

Israel: Israel continues to allow settlement growth in the West Bank. This in itself is cause for concern and will add additional fuel to the anti-Israeli fire that continues to burn in the economically depressed and politically marginalised Gaza and West Bank communities. Add the status of Jerusalem, ongoing intra-Palestinian contestation and disunity and the rise of ultra-extremism in the Gaza and you have a potentially devastating brew. In the north, Israel continues to state that it does not desire war with the Shiite milita, Hezbollah. Yet for all this talk it continues to spend time on explaining to the world how dangerous Hezbollah has become since the previous war in 2006. Israel's peace mongering does not fool us. Israel are itching to have another go at Hezbollah and any threat, perceived or actual, is likely to prove to be a catalyst for a major Israeli incursion into southern Lebanon. PS The slaying of Imad Mugnihey in Damascus in February last year is still a major issue for Hezbollah, which has vowed to avenge the killing. Expect an attack on an Israeli target (globally) in the short-term.

 

Algeria/Mauritania and Niger: Political rhetoric and show boating have been the order of the day for these states in recent weeks. Much has been said about the new cooperation between the Sahel neighbours in their shared battle against Islamist militants; however, there isn't much to show as yet. A few Malian ventures into their northern domains have been the only action taken so far and Mauritania no doubt is looking into entering the bronze age before moving forward. Despite the rhetoric, expect these states to conduct periodic operations in the coming months. Joint offensive? Probably not.

 

As always Mecasr welcome your feedback and comments. If you would like to comment on this article, please follow the tabs below. If you would like to email the team you are more than welcome to at rushmore100@gmail.com. 

 

We want YOU for the rebel army!

Who would be a Shiite rebel in northern Yemen these days? Blazing hot sun, no beach, pretty poor benefits and a near 100% chance of being killed in an air raid while dining on camel in a Saada cave. Conditions in northern Yemen aren't great, anyone who has been to Clifton or spent 20 years in a labour camp would probably agree. Yet these ill-equipped and rag tag rebels continue to fight what seems to be a losing battle. Amid decidedly tepid calls for peace by the UN and the USA and the massive YAWN from the world media, the rebels, led by the al-Houthi family, are losing dozens of men each day - civilians aren't faring much better. Tens of thousands of some of the poorest people on the planet (i.e. no TV) have been displaced and are living in UN and Red Crescent refugee camps dotted across the Saada governorate.

The rebel group is comprised of some 3,000 'fighters' and is supported by some locals. The Yemeni government on the other hand has over 30,000 soldiers, is supported by air and artillery and boast armoured brigades. Yet the rebel cause like so many other "just causes" is, seemingly, worthwhile. From what we at Mecasr have been able to glean from the highly trustworthy Yemen Information Ministry is that the rebels want to control their areas of influence. In other words they want to keep their guns. They also don't trust the government enough to allow them to station troops in their communities. The government, which is supposed to provide services, is rightly aggrieved that it can't exert its control over areas it is supposed to be providing law and order for. There is also a desire among the rebels to reinstate rule by the Imams (the holy guys). Back in the day, 1962 to be exact, the republicans (not like the Bush clan) overthrew the Zaidi imamate in the north. Since then the Shiites/rebels/Houthis have been highly aggrieved that they have been excluded from the ruling structures in the country. In fact one of their current demands is that Houthis be given top government jobs (queue the WTF). So, maybe there is something to fight for. And why not? If you had to live in squalid conditions with no beach, poor benefits and a near 100% chance of death, wouldn't you consider risking it all for a chance...just one chance at a better life? Yea. Probably not.

Niger's Tandja 3-0 Democracy

Niger's colourful political landscape is throwing up more intrigue. On Tuesday, Tandja signed in a new constitution that would make even the Greek founders of Democracy turn in their graves. Under the new document Tandja's current term is extended by three years (it was meant to end in December) and he is allowed to run for a third term in 2012 - and for as long as he lives after that. The response from the international community has been shocking in its silence, but ultimately not surprising. Tandja has ruled the country with an iron fist in recent years and has quieted all dissent and opposition and at the moment a stable dictatorship is better than an unstable democracy. Niger's massive uranium deposits also come into the West's calculations (unstable regime in charge of uranium = not good). For the Nigerien political opposition, these are desperate times. The August 4 referendum on the constitutional amendments was accepted by over 90% of the voters (with a 68% turnout). Despite the setback, they plan further protests this weekend, which are likely to result in widespread disinterest.

Location of the attacks in Baghdad

Courtesy of BBC

Blood bath in Baghdad

A string of coordinated car bomb, conventional bomb and mortar attacks targeting the heavily fortified Green Zone and other Iraqi government buildings earlier today has left a swathe of destruction in Baghdad. At least 50 people have been killed and over 300 wounded in the embattled city and this figure is expected to increase. There have been no claims of responsibility as yet; however, the likely suspects are Sunni extremists motivated or inspired by al-Qaeda.

Jund Ansar Allah & Hamas revealed

More news on last week's clashes between Hamas and Jund Ansar Allah. Accusations that the group is linked to al-Qaeda remain unfounded, at least in an operational sense. This makes sense as the core Qaeda group are currently believed to be based in the Paki-Afghan border area (possibly in a deep dark cave) and providing assistance across such a distance would be difficult. Jund Ansar Allah is most certainly inspired by al-Qaeda, however, and a recent discussion Mecasr has had with leading counter-terrorism experts substantiates this. The groups flag, philosophy and outlook are similar in many ways to that of the now deceased Zarqawi. You will remember he was the Jordanian chap that led a campaign of beheadings in Iraq on behalf of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. The group is also one of many such groups in the Gaza Strip that are not aligned with the current Hamas administration. Jund for their part have vowed swift revenge for the spilt blood of their martyrs and further clashes can be expected. In other news, someone has recently leaked Hamas' balance sheet. The group's income is derived predominantly through smuggling (they levy a 14.5% tax on all smuggled goods entering the Strip) which amounts to approximately US$100 million a month. This has allowed the group to expand its activities into property of all things. If you're ever strolling along the Gaza coastline look out for khaki clad chaps with suitcases filled with US Dollars offering vast sums for beach side manors.

Niger, the "D" word and the SABC

Nigeriens (that's natives of Niger not Nigeria!) will go to the polls on 20 August to elect a new parliament. Democracy it would seem, at least from the outside, is alive and well. Well, not quite. The president of the country, a colourful chap named Tandja, came to power in 1999 and like many of his esteemed African predecessors has decided that his time in office was well spent and should continue...for the benefit of the people of course. In early August Tandja held a constitutional referendum on whether or not he could stand for a third term. This was after the Constitutional Court had ruled any referendum illegal. Tandja's response was to dissolve the court and replace it with loyalists. The outcry in the country was deafening (except to us here in SA, Niger doesn't feature high on the SABC's priorities) and protests and strike action were held regularly in the capital. Yet the sense we got here at Mecasr was that the majority of the locals cared more about not getting sunburnt than Tandja's attempts to hold on to the only air conditioned building in Niamey (that being the presidential palace). The referendum was held and an overwhelming number of Nigeriens voted YES. In the capital over 85% of the people who actually bothered to turn up, voted in favour of the change. The new Constitutional Court backed the referendum and Tandja can now, legally (not that it actually matters to him), stand in elections at the end of the year. As a supporter of democracy, well, this all smacks of a farce really, but who are we to judge? Zimbabweans voted Bob back into power and Mauritanians recently elected a coup leader as president! Africa's strong men trump Western democracy again it would seem and the question now is, is it time for the West to back off, to let Africa develop its own political systems? China has done it well, they send the workers and cash in, reap the benefits and leave. As for Niger, well, no one really cares anyway. By the way, where is Niger?

Leading Shiite rebel commander killed in northern Yemen

Reports from war-torn northern Yemen this morning tell a tell of widespread fighing and bloodshed and a crucial victory for the Yemeni military. Hussein Kamza, the commander of rebels in the Amran governorate, has reportedly been killed during violent clashes with the army. Further details on how he died have not been made and independent confirmation of the leader's death have not been received. Overall leader of the Shiite rebels, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, remains at large. In a seperate development, the rebels have refused to accept the government's ceasefire proposals. In a region with deep seated mistrust of the central government this is not suprising. Mecasr will continue to monitor this conflict closely in the weeks to come.

Ultra-Islamism in the Gaza, take II

More information is coming to light on the shadowy Islamist group, Jund Ansar Allah. The group made world headlines last week when its followers clashed with Hamas gunmen in the Gaza Strip's Rafah city after its leader, Sheikh Abdel-Latif Moussa, declared an Islamic Emirate in the Strip. Communiques from the group, recently translated by the NEFA Foundation, indicate that Moussa had strong ties with the Hamas and the al-Qassem brigades (military wing of Hamas) leaderships, but had recently fallen out of favour with the group. The reasons provided for this falling out are provided by Jund's propaganda team, which boast that its military prowess was becoming a threat to Hamas. The subsequent hit on Moussa and his followers in Rafah last Friday can be viewed as an attempt by the Gaza usurpers (recall that Hamas defeated Fatah for control of the Strip in 2007) to maitain its hegemony in the impoverished coastal enclave. Claims that the group is linked to al-Qaeda have also been rubbished by Jund's media branch; however, this isn't suprising as al-Qaeda, it would seem, and groups associated with it are looking towards lowering their public image - for good reason. Since 2001 the group has been virtually decimated. The al-Qaeda connection will need to be studied further later on.

So why has Jund suddnely appeared and gained a following? The answer can be found by looking at the conditions within the Gaza Strip. Politically Hamas, Fatah and the PLO have failed its people. The Palestinian polity are more fragmented than ever and we are no nearer to securing a lasting peace and two state solution than we were in 1993 with Arafat's widely condemned and ill-fated Oslo Peace Accords. Economically, the Strip is in a bad way. Opportunities for young Palestinians to enter the market and achieve are less than 0. So, with no cash and no prospect of freedom, the only option is extremism for many Palestinians. Enter the revered Moussa who it must be said like many groups before has promised its people the land of its forefathers (Israel), a capital (Jerusalem) and a return to law (strict interpretation of Sharia). These words speak volumes to the people of Gaza. They are only human after all and such promises to a long sufferring people must be very convincing. Mecasr's bottom line: Expect more activity on the Jund front. Hamas have made their intentions clear that it will accept no challengers. Jund for their part have a blood debt to pay. Expect a few dead Hamas gunmen in the next few weeks.

Ultra-Islamism in Gaza

In the old days there was the PLO led by the turban clad and charismatic Yasser Arafat. Then out of the Muslim Brotherhood movement in Egypt came Hamas, which subsequently expelled Arafat's Fatah from the Gaza Strip in 2007. Now, a new group, Jund Ansar Allah (Soldiers of the Companions of God), has emerged in the southern town of Rafah to challenge the Hamas hegemony in the Gaza Strip. Leader of the group, Sheikh Abdel-Latif Moussa (reportedly killed on 15 August 2009) declared at the Ibn Taymiya mosque on Friday the creation of an Islamic Emirate in the southern Gaza area. Naturally, Hamas took exception to this declaration and the subsequent gun battles between Jund and Hamas gunmen left over 20 people dead overnight. It may well be that this new group is a flash in the pan, a sect if you will that has attempted to fight above its weight class. However, the fact that it was able to organise without much fuss and then suddenly appear to a world audience is of grave concern. The questions being asked now are, how strong is this group, who does it owe allegiance too and are there others just like it? Mecasr will update shortly.

15/08/2009 Kabul attack in pictures

 

Taleban strike in the heart of Kabul

A Taleban suicide car bomber struck in the heavily fortified Wazi Akhbar Khan district of Kabul earlier today. Local officials believe the target of the attack was the US Embassy; however, due to the heavy security presence in the district the bomber was forced to detonate outside of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force HQ. The approximately 1,100 pounds of explosives caused significant material damage and killed at least three people - 70 others were wounded. The attack, which comes days before the 18 August Independence Day commemorations and 20 August General Elections, is yet another indication of the Taleban's growing ability to conduct operations in the economic and political heart of the city. We can certainly expect further attacks before the election results are released.

Yemen's Saada in turmoil - Update

Local officials are now reporting that Shiite rebels have kidnapped 15 local aid workers aligned to the Red Crescent and that heavy fighting is continuing in some areas of the governorate. The rebels have denied conducting the kidnapping. This all smacks of propaganda. Watch this space for developments.

Yemen's Saada in turmoil

The Yemeni government launched a fresh offensive against Shiite rebels in the restive northern Saada governorate on 11 August in what regional analysts are pitting as the beginning of the 6th Saada war since 2004. Shiite rebels, who favour the formation of a Hashemite kingdom in Yemen, have captured a number of towns and strategic mountain top positions in recent months forcing the government's hand. The army will be keen to force the Houthis to negotiate as soon as possible as a protracted war is not in the interests of the Yemeni state, which is already battling to stem growing secessionist sentiment in southern Yemen and rising Islamist extremism in its eastern governorates.

West African drug trade

In 2006 and 2007 Western European security officials noticed an increase in the number of cocaine seizures emmanating from Africa, particularly West Africa. The trend was linked to the increasing pressure being placed on Colombian, Peruvian and Bolivian drug cartels along their traditional Mexico-US smuggling routes by a Mexican government offensive against drug gangs and a parallel drop in demand for cocaine in the US market.

The big loser in all of this has been Africa. In post-conflict countries like Guinea Bissau, Senegal, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone the local security officials ability to deal with technologically superior and better financed South American drug cartels has been limited. In Guinea Bissau, for example, rampant corruption within the military (which domiantes all aspects of the GB polity) has been particularly problematic. The assassination of Interior Minister and presidential candidate Baciro Dabo in June 2009 (who publicly denounced the military in 2007 for its involvement in the trade), ex-President Viera and Army chief of Staff General Waie in March 2009 and death threats against leading human rights activist Luis Vas Martins (another critic of the military) prove that the reach and influence of the cartels runs deep. Guinea Bissau also faces an internal policing problem. For example:

• Its narcotics division has only 60 members and one vehicle.
• Its navy also only has one boat to cover approximately 100 islands and islets, most of which have the capacity to hold small smuggling seaports and airports.
• The incarceration rate in the country is 6 per capita....the regional average is 38. This means that there either isnt crime or the judiciary isn't working.
• There are no prisons, only police holding cells.
• A recent Security Sector Reform initiative led by a Spanish general, Juan Esteban Verastegui, and the EU has proven unpopular with the military. The plan aims to reduce the number of units in the armed forces. As a side note the country is the most militarised per capita in the region and government spend on the military accounts for 30% of GDP.

The cartels are well aware of the weakness of West African states and have done well to infiltrate local crime networks and corrupt local police and military officials. For countries like GB the situation seems hopeless and the chronic instability the country has faced since independence is likely to continue and deepen. Neighbouring Senegal and Guinea are also likely to suffer if GB falls to the influence of the cartels who will look to destabilise regional countries to increase their market share. Cartels generally seek out areas where the economic risks of doing business are small (ie weak police force) and judicial oversight non-existent (punishment for crime is light etc). The UN, EU and US need to work together to combat the threat as local states do not have the capacity to deal with the powerful cartels alone.

To read more about the situation in West Africa, please click here.

Mali declares war

The Malian armed forces are being placed on a war footing to battle the increasing threat of Islamist extremism in the north of the country. The presence of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb in the region has finally being put forward as a national priority issue and will be given more resources following a successful peace settlement with local Tuareg seperatist rebel groups in early 2009. AQIM have long used the porous Algeria/Mali border to train, smuggle and recruit; however, President Toures 7 July announcement that the country had declared war on the Islamists has come as a relief to many counter-terrorism officials and analysts who have identified the Sahel as a breeding ground of extremism. However, the test for regional bodies is yet to come. Islamists have shown and unnnerving tenacity in the past two decades and have survived numerous military offensives. Regional states will need to implement a strategic and unilateral offensive policy combined with a policy that meets the root causes of extremism, namely poverty and unemployment. If these factors are addressed extremism is unlikely to see another decade.

Lull in AQIM activity in Algeria

A month before Ramadaan and Algeria is experiencing a lull in reported extremist activity that points to one of two possibilities. Either that the Islamists have been defeated and are on the run or, and what is more likely, that the Islamists are readying for a renewed campaign against the Bouteflika regime.

The last major insurgent attack occurred in mid-June 2009 in Biskra when an army patrol was ambushed leaving five soldiers dead. The attack came on the heels of a number of high-profile ambushes in the north of the country that signalled then a potential escalation in insurgent acitivty. The silence of local jihadists since has been worrying particularly in light of intelligence reports that warned that al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) may be readying to target Chinese nationals in the country over their states recent handling of the Uighur unrest in north western China.

It is widely known that AQIMs capacity to conduct regular and high-profile attacks in the country has diminished since the 1990s; however, the recent lull is suspect. The upcoming Ramadan commemorations (20 August to 20 September) may be a strong indicator of where the insurgency is heading. During this period, it is argued, martyrdom operations are more likely due to the significance of the period to Muslims. As with most quiet conflicts, watch this space.

Iran quote that sums up the unrest

"Iran has squandered a huge opportunity to bridge the gulf between the regime and an increasingly sophisticated population thirsting for greater freedom. A vibrant election campaign opened a door. It has been slammed shut." - Iranfocus 24 / 06 / 2009

Ahmadinejad vs Mousavi, Round 5, Fight!

Disputed election protests enter Day 5 today as pro-Mousavi protesters are likely to ring public squares across the country in definace of demonstration bans placed on them by the ruling regime and despite an announcement by the Guidance Council that a partial recount was going to be made (partial?). The unrest, which have been the worst seen since 1979 have gathered steam despite the arrest of dozens of reformers in recent days and the death of a number of protesters. The ruling government has also moved swiftly to block all news reaching the world via the foreign press. Reuters have included the following in all their stories coming out of their Tehran office:

"Reuters coverage is now subject to an Iranian ban on foreign media leaving the office to report, film or take pictures in Tehran."

Facebook, Youtube and other similiar social applications have been blocked to limit the damage to the regimes reputation, and so far, this has worked fairly well. I use fairly because despite the block, information has still emerged, grainy images of pro-government militia shooting on students in Isfahan and mobs rioting in reprisal are a few that have emerged. As before, watch this space. There may be more interesting times to come. Revolution? Maybe not just yet...

Iran poll results spark angry protests in Tehran

Iranian presidential election results, which showed a landslide victory for current president, Ahmadinejad, sparked widespread anti-government protests in Tehran on 13 June. Thousands of supporters of presidential candidate, Mir Hossein Mousavi, flooded the streets of this usually placid city denouncing the result and chanting anti-Ahmadinejad slogans. Clashes between riot police and protesters and between pro- and anti-Ahmadinejad supporters were also reported. Although it is true that Iran has faced serious unrest over economic and social issues in the past the current unrest has the potential to seriously escalate and is the most widespread since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Mousavi for his part has not accepted the result and his continued agitation is likely to further motivate demonstrators. Such unrest would, during the 1980s and early 1990s, have been counted as counter-revolutionary and swiftly crushed; however, with the eyes of the world squarely on Iran, any ontoward acts by the government against the protesters would severely tarnish its international image, at a time when it is trying to align itself as a leader, not only of the Shiite world but also the Arab world. Watch this space.

US Naval deployments: Follow from your PC!

Stratfor - Stratfor release a weekly update on the current deployment of the US Naval fleet. The Naval Update Map shows an approximation of the current locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) and Amphibious Ready Groups (ARGs), the keys to U.S. dominance of the world’s oceans. A CSG is centered on an aircraft carrier, which projects U.S. naval and air power and supports a carrier air wing. The CSG includes significant offensive strike capability. An ARG is centered around three amphibious warfare ships, with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked. An MEU is built around a heavily reinforced and mobile battalion of Marines.



Carrier Strike Groups

• The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is currently located in the northern Arabian Sea conducting maritime security operations in the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility (AOR).
• The USS John C. Stennis is under way in the western Pacific conducting scheduled operations as part of a six- to seven-month deployment.
• The USS Harry S. Truman returned to Naval Station Norfolk in Norfolk, Va., on May 9.
• The USS George Washington is conducting sea trials and carrier qualifications off the coast of Japan.
• The USS Nimitz is participating in a Composite Training Unit Exercise and Joint Task Force Exercise off of the U.S. Pacific coast.
• The USS G.H.W. Bush is currently located at Naval Station Norfolk after the U.S. Navy took delivery of the ship May 11.

Amphibious Ready Groups/Marine Expeditionary Units

• The USS Boxer ESG/13th MEU is currently deployed to the 5th Fleet AOR, where it is conducting maritime security operations.
• The USS Wasp is under way in the Atlantic Ocean as part of a deployment to the 2nd Fleet AOR.
• The USS Nassau is currently under way in the Atlantic after rejoining the fleet May 7 upon completion of nearly six months of repairs.
• The USS Bataan deployed to the 5th and 6th Fleet AORs on May 13 from Naval Station Norfolk and is under way in the Atlantic.
• The USS Iwo Jima is currently located in the Atlantic conducting routine operations/exercises.

The G20 Distraction

While most of the world's attention has focused on the global economic slow down and the G20 economic summit in London, many security issues are getting scant attention in the world press and by world leaders. Africa has suffered a spate of illegitimate regime changes in recent months (Mali, Mauritania, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Madagascar) and existing regimes (Sudan, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Algeria, Zimbabwe), that had been strongly criticised for their undemocratic practices in the past by the West, have slipped under the radar and been allowed to pursue policies that are unalligned to the global democratic movement. India and Pakistan are also experiencing severe militant activity and tensions in Thailand between the government and anti-government forces are threatening another PAD type situation. These issues aside it is the recent resurgence of Sunni extremism in Iraq that has sparked my interest in recent months.

The rhetoric on Iraq (emanating from the US) flooded the airwaves and discussion boards in 2008. It was a major, major election issue that ultimately scuttled the Republican campaign. The improving Iraqi security situation and the relatively peaceful passing of the 31 January provincial elections, raised hopes that the tide had finally been turned and Iraq could return to a semblance of normality. However, a spate of suicide attacks in Baghdad (and in the relatively peaceful Basra) in March has shaken popular confidence in Iraq. Fighting between Sunni tribesmen, who had recently been enlisted in the Iraqi security forces, and US and Iraq security units in Baghdad has also raised concerns, particularly as the Sunni tribes have complained that they are being unfairly treated in the new Iraqi polity and had threatened to take up arms to regain power in Anbar if there demands were not met.

These developments have shown that Iraq is far from stable and promises by the US and UK administrations that the war in Iraq was nearing its end have proven false. This misinformation has distracted most of us. Sunni extremists remain a direct threat to the Iraqi state, Iraq's neighbours and the world. If they are allowed to continue their campaigns, cracks that are already showing in Iraq between Kurds and Arabs, Shiites and Sunnis, and between Shiite, Sunni and Kurd groups, may widen further. An unstable Iraq leads to an unstable Middle East, the source of oil for most of the planet and crucially the world's economy.

Barak Obama and other world leaders need to move security back to the front of the world agenda. The economy is important, but that’s why we have bankers, finance ministers and Bono. If regimes in African and Asia continue to act like despots, more Saddam Husseins and Idi Amins will emerge (if they haven’t already) and the seeds of future conflicts will be planted.

Post-election buzz in Iraq

Iraq staged successful provincial elections in 14 of its 18 governorates on 31 January, in what was viewed as a test of the Nouri al-Maliki administration's ability to provide adequate security and advance 'normal politics' in a country that has been racked by a bloody insurgency and vicious sectarian violence. The vote itself was accompanied by stringent security measures and these measures seem to have worked, with only minor violence having been reported at some polling stations. But this vote was never really about the vote itself. It was and is about the outcome. Since the vote was staged, Sunni tribes based in Anbar region and aligned to the powerful Awakening Council have claimed that the vote was fraudulent and that there main opponent in the Anbar governorate, the Iraqi Islamic Party, was complicit in the vote rigging.

Now this may not seem that surprising for many watchers of third world elections - opposition groups often accuse each other of fraud usually once the results seem to indicate they may not win - however, in Iraq, the allegations must be taken seriously and if any fraud is discovered the vote must be held again. Anbar was the centre of the Iraqi Sunni insurgency post-2003 and only recently has order returned following a deal struck between the central government and the local tribes to rout Sunni insurgents, like al-Qaeda, from the large desert region. Another concern remains the tribe's commitment to democracy. They have long wanted to control the Anbar region, through the Awakening council; if they were to lose the vote (regardless of whether fraud is proven or not) violence is likely. Maliki's successful vote may yet prove to be a catastrophe not only for the new Iraqi political system but also for the stability of the state as a whole. Watch this space - results due out later today (5 Feb).

Evaluating risk

Heres a short piece I did exactly two years on how to evaluate terrorism and political stability. Very simplified but provides a starting point for understanding how risk is evaluated.

Terrorism:

Current status

We currently rate the threat of terrorism in ___ as ___. (our position)

There is a history of terror related activity in the country__.

This threat is derived from Islamist extremist groups/anarchists/separatists/insurgents.

The following groups are believed to be active in the region/have a support structure in the region, have easy access to the region.

The most recent terror related activity occurred on_ . (action etc)

On that occasion___.

OR / AND

The most recent threat received from a terror group.

Modus Operandi & Area of operation

The most high risk regions are__.

The safer regions are_____

Terrorists target___ (westerners, government, military, civilians, ethnic group)

The types of weapons used in attacks__ (IED, Suicide attacks, shooting etc)

Analysis

We believe that further attacks are highly likely/possible/unlikely because of___ Threats/regional position/high number of foreign visitors/historical precedent/nationally symbolic days/govt action/islamist schools/trends/incidents

Personal response

What you can do-general security advice.

Politics:

Historical context

Main political players, current government Government policies, policy direction

Opposition to government, name them, policies, ideology

Threat to stability?

Internal - external

Consequence of opposition - Civil unrest - violence

Response to the threat.

Areas to avoid, Anniversarys to avoid, topics to avoid etc

Upcoming events that could spark events affecting safety and security. Do we think this event will change the status quo, lead to a deterioration in security etc.

Polarised views of the Mid-East conundrum

Regardless of how many missles (converted firecrackers as effective as throwing rocks over the border fence) rain down on the heads of the Israelis, the massive onslaught by the Israeli Defence Force can not be justified. The existence of a people can not simply be wiped out. Jews of all people should know better what the abuse of power can lead to. Yes, I am making a comparison to the Holocaust. Get over it. Hamas will fall eventually. Leave them be. Let thme make there own mistakes. And if it means moving Israelis back 10 km from the Gaza border, so what? The conflict has been raging for 2000 years. Grow up Olmert et al.

Hamas should be eternally ashamed of the way they have acted. If there were an award for the most childish governing body in the world Hamas wins by a landslide even surpassing the bratty Russians and arrogant American administrations. To continue to allow rocket fire on a stronger power is not only irresponsible but pig headed. To establish military and police barracks near civilian areas is sickening. The Palestinian blood that is spilled during Israeli attacks is partly to blame on the Israelis and nearly fully the responsibility of Hamas. Grow up Haniyeh.